All eyes were on an officially very tight Istanbul race in Turkey’s milestone local elections late on March 31, with the country’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan knowing that a defeat for his ruling AKP party in the Turkish business capital would essentially mean he had lost what has become a referendum on his economic management.

Turkey’s main opposition party, the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), appeared on course to seize control of the capital Ankara from the Islamic-rooted AKP for the first time since Erdogan came to power 16 years ago, meaning the prospect of the strongman suffering a crucial double-blow—losing both Ankara and Istanbul amid recession-hit Turkey’s economic turmoil—was in play.

However, things were very tense in Istanbul with the AKP candidate, PM until last year Binali Yildirim, accused of prematurely claiming victory over his CHP opponent Ekrem Imamoglu—Yildirim asserted in a televised statement that he had won even though votes were still being counted and his lead had officially narrowed to just 0.2 percentage points. Two percent of the ballot boxes were yet to be opened, broadcaster NTV said. Imamoglu described Yildirim’s move as “manipulation” and as March 31 drew to a close there were reports of Erdogan conceding that the AKP appeared to have lost Istanbul.

“Talking heads… a little awestruck”
“Even the talking heads on CNNTurk seem a little awestruck at the brazenness of Yildirim's announcement,” tweeted Howard Eissenstat, associate professor of Middle East history at St. Lawrence University, New York State, a self-confessed “cynic” when it comes to the question of whether Turkey’s elections are free and fair. “A gentle reminder that the High Election Commission (YSK) has, erm, undergone some reforms over the past few years. Its decisions are final. Not even the Supreme Court can overturn them,” Eissenstat advised those following reports of the local election results.

BBC Turkey correspondent Selin Girit noted that after Yildirim made his announcement, state news service Anadolu Agency stopped updating live election results, while CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu called on his party not to sleep for the next 48 hours in order to oversee the vote-counting process in Istanbul. Shortly after Yildirim claimed the victory, Girit tweeted: “Gap btw AKP and CHP's candidates in Istanbul is now down to only 4,400 votes. AKP candidate #Yıldırım just announced victory. In a simultaneous presser CHP candidate #Imamoglu spoke of manipulation. Fierce race in Turkey's biggest city which is ruled by govn+affiliates for 24 yrs.”

Economist Erik Meyersson, who has previously released research on “disappeared votes” in Turkish polls, on March 31 put out charts on Twitter on the decline of democracy in Turkey. “In 2007, Turkey was a middling EM democracy. Today it is part of a group of autocracies making it statistically indistinguishable from Putin's Russia and the military dictatorship of Thailand,” he said.

At least 57mn people were eligible to vote in the elections made up of contests in 30 cities and more than 900 districts around the country. The AKP has won every major election vote since it first took office in 2002, so for the first time it was facing the prospect of significant defeats in several places.

By the end of March 31, Anadolu was reporting that the People’s Alliance (the coalition of the AKP and the ultra-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)) had taken 51.74% of the nationwide vote, while the CHP-led Nation Alliance had won backing amounting to 37.64%. A total of 91.15% of ballots had been counted and voter turnout was 83.99%, it added. In Ankara, CHP candidate Mansur Yavas was officially ahead by around 50.6% versus 47.2% for Mehmet Ozhaseki of the AKP.

Less than ebullient
Observers noted that Erdogan was less than ebullient in claiming victory for his AKP. Speaking at a news conference in Istanbul, he noted that the next elections in Turkey were not until June 2023 and that before then Turkey would carefully implement a “strong economic programme” without compromising on free market rules. How much of his credibility with global finance, which Turkey is vitally dependent on, is already blown is the question.

Election day violence is unfortunately part and parcel of Turkish elections. In Malatya in eastern Turkey two people were shot dead after an argument broke out between rival groups over whether voting had to take place in polling booths or could be conducted in the open. The alleged killer is reportedly a nephew of an AKP candidate. Local news reports also said one of the people killed was an election observer for the Felicity Party (SP), while the other was a polling station official. Two other people were killed in the runup to voting day, Ahval reported the interior ministry as saying.

Another difficulty in Turkey is that around 95% of the media is pro-Erdogan, with coverage in favour of the president and AKP crudely skewed.

Giving snapshots of how the conduct of Turkey’s local elections leaves plenty to be desired, bianet.org published reports of election process violations. Sol International reported that European election observers who arrived in Diyarbakir, southeastern Turkey, at the invitation of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) were restrained by police, with two of the observers taken into custody before being released after giving statements.

Several HDP leaders in the southeast of the country were arrested on terror charges in the runup to voting day. Erdogan dubbed the elections a “matter of survival” for Turkey, pointing the polarising finger on numerous occasions at the HDP and CHP for allegedly associating with the country’s “terrorist” enemies.