Europe is still struggling to convince onlookers that it is doing anything much to maintain the value of the nuclear deal for Iran following Donald Trump’s unilateral abandonment of the accord five months ago, but on September 25 the EU’s foreign policy chief linked up with Russia and China to announce what she billed as a breakthrough.

The EU along with the remaining major power signatories of the multilateral deal—Russia, China as well as the UK, Germany and France—said they would establish a new payment system via a special purpose vehicle to maintain business with Iran and bypass US sanctions. The envisaged system would mean oil and other companies could continue trading with Iran while being shielded from American penalties as they would not be reliant on the US-led global market and dollar.

So how would it work? Well, for now EU foreign policy head Federica Mogherini wasn’t saying. In fact, nobody was saying as the ins and outs of the system are still being determined by technical experts.

Mogherini announced the plan after talks at the UN in New York with the remaining members of the accord. They say Trump was absolutely wrong to withdraw the US from the agreement as Iran is in full compliance with its provisions, namely measures meant to bar its path to the development of a nuclear weapon in exchange for the lifting of crippling sanctions.

A statement from the signatories said they were determined to "protect the freedom of their economic operators to pursue legitimate business with Iran".

Not surprisingly, however, the payment system plan has gone down rather badly with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who, according to Reuters, said at the United Against Nuclear Iran Summit, held on the sidelines of the Assembly: “Unfortunately, just last night I was disturbed and indeed deeply disappointed to hear remaining parties in the Iran [nuclear] deal announce they are setting up a special payment system to bypass U.S. sanctions. This is one of the most counterproductive measures imaginable for regional global peace and security. By sustaining revenues to the regime you are solidifying Iran’s ranking as [the] No. 1 state sponsor of terror.”

Strong symbolism
There is strong symbolism in the ‘West minus Trump’ standing shoulder to shoulder with Iran and an agreement, struck after painstaking negotiations, that has not been breached—the UN’s nuclear watchdog agrees that is the case. That might be why the hardliners in Iran have to date not caused too much trouble for Iran’s centrist and pragmatist President Hassan Rouhani, despite the deepening economic turmoil that the US’ renewed sanctions assault on the Islamic Republic is causing. But at some point, the hardliners, and indeed all Iranians, will want to see an economic payoff from staying in the accord, agreed under the Barack Obama administration and formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The big dilemma is that analysts doubt whether a payment mechanism as proposed by the remaining JCPOA signatories is feasible given that the US could modify its sanctions to encompass any new system. Hardly a day goes by without a major European company announcing it is pulling out of Iran because it is exposed to secondary sanctions threatened by the Americans.

Trump is intent on wreaking such economic destruction in Iran that Tehran will come to the table to renegotiate its role in conflict-torn parts of the Middle East including Syria and Yemen, its approach to the existence of Israel and its ballistic missile and nuclear development programmes.

On September 25, Trump took to the podium at the UN General Assembly and again castigated the Iranians, claiming "Iran's leaders sow chaos, death and destruction". Calling on other countries to completely isolate Iran, he added: "They do not respect their neighbours or borders or the sovereign rights of nations. Instead, Iran's leaders plunder the nation's resources to enrich themselves and spread mayhem across the Middle East and far beyond."

Tanking rial
Prior to Trump’s speech, the Iranian rial (IRR) tanked further to an all-time low of 170,000 to the dollar, making it 74.8% weaker against the USD in the year to date.

Critics saw the American president’s speech as bombastic and terribly simplistic and one-sided. For instance, in speaking of the conflict in Syria he blamed Iran, but made no mention of Russia, which has provided crucial air support for the Damascus regime. And his comments on how he sees Iran’s leaders as sowing death and destruction and embezzling “billions of dollars” were made just hours after he sent a tweet saying that, while he would not be meeting him, he was sure that Rouhani was an “absolutely lovely man”.

But whatever the rights and wrongs of US policy on Iran, there is no question that it is driving the country back into recession. Protecting as much trade—especially lucrative oil trade—as possible over coming months will be crucial to Tehran’s attempts to resisting Trump’s strategy.

IMF figures show that last year China was the top recipient of Iranian exports at a value of towards $16bn. The EU was second at nearly $10bn, India third at around $8.5bn, South Korea fourth at slightly over $6bn and Turkey fifth, also at slightly over $6bn.