On the evening of 24 June, 2023, as mercenaries from Wagner Group prepared to leave the city of Rostov-on-Don after their mutiny was called off, they were clapped and cheered by a crowd of locals.

Moments later, as Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin left the building of the Southern Military District, his car was immediately swamped by locals trying to get a selfie with the man who had started a rebellion aimed at overthrowing the head of the Russian Army.

Prigozhin had managed to capture the attention of the world’s media for the entire day. The op-eds and think pieces inevitably followed, all asking the same question: How popular is this Prigozhin guy?

Before the mutiny Prigozhin was not a household name in Russia. Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Prigozhin was most famous for the lawsuits against his company for poisoning schoolchildren with poor-quality meals. That changed in 2022 when Wagner PMC started to be advertised throughout the country, as it sought men to join up. Despite that, the majority of Russians could not pick its leader out of a lineup. In fact, when news of Prigozhin's uprising emerged, many Russians wondered whether it was being spearheaded by Iosif Prigozhin, the music producer and husband of the popular 1990s pop singer Valeriya.

Despite his relatively low nationwide name recognition, Prigozhin undoubtedly has a dedicated base of followers. Over the past year and a half the warlord has cultivated a profound sense of loyalty and trust among thousands of young men, primarily from rural areas. Wagner PMC recruited these individuals from prisons across the nation, under the agreement that they would receive payment and early release after serving a six-month term. While some of these men have already been released, others are still serving within the company.

In addition to his core supporters, Prigozhin also enjoys popularity among a small but highly vocal faction of uber-Z-head pro-War Russians. This group perceives him as a more accomplished and capable military leader compared to Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov and Minister of Defence Sergey Shoigu. The perceived success of Wagner's operations in the Battle of Bakhmut, until the withdrawal of the private military company in June, elevated Prigozhin's standing as a commander, contrasting with the Russian General Staff's inability to achieve significant gains over several months.

Excluding these two small groups, and disregarding the vast majority of people who had limited knowledge about Prigozhin before 24 June, the general perception of Prigozhin was that of a wealthy businessman-cum-thug born out of the 1990s mafia-dominated St. Petersburg, who also established his own private army.

So why did the people of Rostov come out to cheer Prigozhin?

While the images are undoubtedly striking, it must be noted (with appropriate scepticism) that the crowds witnessed in Rostov represented only a small fraction of the city's population, which currently exceeds 1mn. The reasons behind their participation in the Saturday evening celebration can be broadly categorised into five distinct groups:

1. The genuine Z-loving supporters of the war against Ukraine, who see Wagner and Prigozhin as a brutal, unforgiving and powerful force to help Moscow achieve victory, following varying levels of success in Lysychansk, Sievierodonetsk, Popasna and Soledar, as well as Bakhmut.
2. Those who are frustrated with the slow progress of the war, which they thought would be short, and see Prigozhin as an anti-establishment, anti-Shoigu, anti-Gerasimov figure.
3. Those who have no love for Prigozhin, but see Wagner fighters as heroes because they’re fighting for Russia. This group sees no distinction between the Wagner Group and the Army and celebrated on the evening of 24 June because the infighting had stopped and the troops could go back to the front.
4. Those simply relieved that their city would not become a war zone.
5. Bloggers, influencers, rubberneckers and others who wanted to make content and have their pictures taken with soldiers and tanks.

These five groups combined made up mere hundreds of people, while the vast majority of the city stayed at home or ran to their dachas, frightened and scared. The pundits suggesting Prigozhin is wildly popular and that the Russian people would have supported are wildly misguided – he may have support with certain sectors of the population, and certainly inside the community of convicts, but there never was any chance of a popular uprising to install Prigozhin as head.