Business confidence among Turkish manufacturers plunged to 66.8 points in April from 99.7 in March, central bank data showed on April 24, offering another insight into how the upheaval caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has hit industry and the economy.

The latest data also revealed that the capacity utilisation rate (CUR) of industry in Turkey fell to 61.6% in April from 75.3% in March.

Turkey's economy looks set for its second recession in less than two years due to the slowdown.

The grim readings on business sentiment and the industrial CUR come despite the Erdogan administration opting not to apply a general lockdown to Turkey’s 83mn-strong population.

Although selective lockdowns, such as weekend curfews applied to major population centres, have been stepped up during April, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan—already under political and economic pressure from the fragile state of the Turkish economy even before just about anyone had even heard of COVID-19—has largely stuck to his message outlined at the end of March that “Our most important sensitivity here is to continue production to sustain the supply of basic goods and support exports. Turkey is a country that needs to continue production and keep the wheels turning under all conditions and circumstances.”

Turkey now has the worst coronavirus outbreak of any emerging economy, according to its officially logged number of infections (not forgetting that many expert observers fear the actual situation is far worse) and Turks remain anxious that predictions they will suffer the worst GDP contraction of all the G20 countries in 2020 will hold true.

The IMF has forecast a contraction of 5% for Turkey, but the Turkish government is yet to revise its plan to achieve 5% growth.