Ankara was by September 28 still weighing its options in response to the Iraqi Kurds’ overwhelming 93% ‘Yes’ vote in their referendum on declaring independence from Baghdad. Turkey did not immediately go ahead with the most severe economic sanctions it has threatened, such as stopping food exports into the northern Iraq territory of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) or turning off the tap on oil exports flowing out of the region.

However, the situation was very delicate. Whether the momentum of the plebiscite victory might carry through into Turkish, Iranian or Syrian Kurds stepping up efforts for their own autonomy is yet to be seen, although Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani has stated that the referendum victory will not be used in any immediate attempt to declare independence.

Of countries with a major say in Middle East politics, only Russia and Israel did not call on the Kurds to desist from the vote. Russian President Vladimir Putin is due in Ankara on September 28 to hold talks on the Syria conflict and other matters with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Though it has warned it will do so, Ankara is yet to close its busy Habur border gate with northern Iraq. “But that does not mean it will remain this way,” Turkish Customs Minister Bulent Tukenkci said, according to Hurriyet Daily News. He added that the number of trucks passing through the border gate had fallen.

“We can continue trading with the Iraqi central government through Iran or via sea or airways,” the minister reportedly added.

Reliable figures on Turkey’s economic exposure to the region that falls under the KRG are hard to come by. Bilateral trade between the KRG and Turkey is worth $2.5bn, according to Tufenkci, although some data circulating in respected media in recent days has put the figure slightly or much higher. Turkey exports substantial consignments of food to the region and a suspension of trade would certainly deal it some kind of economic blow. However, it is not dependent on oil flows from the Iraqi Kurds. Any that are blocked by sanctions could be quite easily replaced.

The Iranians, meanwhile, are also finalising their response to the vote they absolutely did not wish to see happen. In a first sign of action being stepped up, the Tehran bureau of Kurdistan 24 news agency on September 27 reported that it had been ordered to shut down by the Iranian government.

In the referendum, voters were asked the question: “Do you want the Kurdistan Region and the Kurdistani areas outside the administration of the Region to become an independent state?” More than 72.6% of eligible voters, or 3.3mn people (both Kurd and non-Kurd), cast a ballot, with 92.73% of valid votes in favour of ‘Yes’ and 7.27% in favour of ‘No’. Washington had made it clear that it was not supportive of the decision to hold the vote while Baghdad made a last-minute request for the “cancellation” of the result. Iraq's parliament asked the prime minister to deploy troops to the oil-rich territory of Kirkuk and other disputed multi-ethnic areas held by Kurdish Peshmerga fighters.

Result null and void, says Ankara
Ankara has said that the outcome of the referendum is null and void for Turkey and has threatened to cut off the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline that carries oil from the Kurdish territory in northern Iraq to world markets.

“All possible measures, including military and economic options, are now on the table against the Iraqi Kurds,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech on September 27. Erdogan called the vote “illegal” and said that it constituted a threat to Turkey’s national security.

“Despite the fact that Iraqi special forces joined a Turkish military exercise on the border with Iraq, and despite Erdogan’s remarks about keeping military options on the table, it is not likely that Turkey will get involved in a massive military operation into Iraq targeting [Kurdistan Regional President Masoud] Barzani and his KRG,” political commentator Murat Yetkin wrote in a September 27 article for Hurriyet Daily News.

Perhaps the most that will happen militarily on Turkey’s side will be some point operations against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which put aside its rivalry with Barzani to support the referendum, according to Yetkin.

The PKK, which has been conducting insurgency campaigns against the Turkish state since 1984, has bases and camps in northern Iraq. Turkish jets struck PKK targets in northern Iraq, killing 13 members of the outlawed organisation, the Turkish military said on September 27.

 “Through this referendum we showed the desire of our nation to Baghdad and the world. What we did was within the framework of Iraq and will stay within the framework of Iraq,” KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani told reporters on September 27 in Erbil, according to Rudaw.

Barzani insisted that the Kurdistan Region and the referendum are in “no way a threat to Turkey.”

“We want to live happy in Kurdistan with all components. We don’t want any problems. Kirkuk is the best example for the coexistence of all components,” Barzani said.

Baghdad demands surrender of airports
The KRG on September 27 rejected an Iraqi central government ultimatum to hand control of the Erbil and Sulaimaniya international airports to Baghdad or face a suspension of direct international flights to and from the region, Reuters reported.

The Iraqi Civil Aviation Authority has notified airlines that international flights to and from the two airports will be suspended from 1800 local time on September 29.

Turkey will suspend flights to Erbil and Sulaimaniya starting September 29, the Turkish consulate in Erbil announced in a statement. The decision will impact the national flag carrier Turkish Airlines, the low-cost carrier Pegasus, and Atlas Global, the consulate said.

The Iranians banned any flights in and out of the KRG-controlled region prior to the vote.

Though they make up the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East, the Kurds have never managed to form a permanent nation state. In Iraq, where they account for somewhere between 15% to 20% of the population of 37 million, the Kurds faced decades of repression but acquired autonomy in 1991.