The US State Department has given its clearance for Ankara to potentially purchase a $3.5bn package of Patriot missile systems, according to an announcement placed on the website of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) late on December 18.

The announcement comes with the longrunning row between Ankara and Washington over Nato member Turkey’s decision to buy S-400 missile defence systems from Russia unresolved. The S-400 is not compatible with hardware used by Nato and the military bloc is also worried that Turkey could theoretically test it against the new F-35 stealth fighter plane to gather sensitive performance data. Sales of the F-35 to the Turks have been temporarily suspended by the US while the issue is further explored and discussed.

It is expected that the decision by the Trump administration not to get in the way of a sale of Patriots to Turkey is an opening move in a bid to get the country’s S-400 contract cancelled, but Ankara said last month that the order placed with the Russians was a done deal and the Kremlin said on December 19 that it was pressing ahead with the plan for deliveries, set to begin next year.

“Should help recovery in markets”
The dispute over the S-400 acquisition is one of several issues that have this year caused a multi-faceted rift between Turkey and the US, taking an extra and major toll on Turkish markets already rocked by severe economic problems. Timothy Ash, a strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said the Patriot announcement from the US State Department “marks a further easing in tensions between Turkey and the US, and should help the recovery in Turkish markets”.

Ash added: “Cancellation of the S-400 contract is still key to the maintenance of the F-35 deal for Turkey, which is thought to be worth around US$12bn in terms of the manufacture of component parts in Turkey.”

Turkey has also been chosen to run a maintenance and repairs depot for F-35s in the air fleets of European Nato members including the UK.

In a note to investors on the Patriot development, Ash also observed that Turkey “cannot buy both” the US and Russian missile defence systems, adding: “I think the US will pull both the Patriot sale and F-35 deal if Turkey goes along with the S-400. The news that the USG[overnment] had lifted its opposition to sell Patriots was a major concession to Turkey from the Trump administration, and the sense is/was that this could get through Congress.” 

“It’s a big deal”
Commenting on developments, Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research programme at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Bloomberg. “It’s a big deal, because only a few months ago, analysts were predicting all doom and the end of a nearly seven-decades-old US-Turkey relationship. This suggests a new phase in US-Turkish ties, one driven by a new rapport between Presidents Erdogan and Trump, and aided by bureaucracies in both countries determined not to let the US-Turkish relationship collapse.”

The S-400 and Patriot systems are different in capabilities, according to DefenseNews.com. The S-400 is a mobile system, designed for deployment behind the lines to protect critical infrastructure, with a very long range, while the Patriot is a medium-range system, it said.

The US sale would cover the procurement of 80 Patriot MIM-104E Guidance Enhanced and 60 PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles, as well as associated equipment.

Turkey, which has the second largest armed forces in Nato behind those of the US, has twice opted against acquiring the Patriot, once in 2013 when it chose a Chinese system that it later decided against and once in 2017 when it finalised the S-400 deal.

In both cases, Turkey wanted a transfer of missile technology to be included in a Patriot sale. The US declined to meet those requests.

The DSCA announcement said industrial offsets are required with the deal, but “at this time offset agreements are undetermined and will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and contractors".

In addition to the missiles, the package includes four AN/MPQ-65 Radar Sets, four Engagement Control Stations, 10 Antenna Mast Groups, 20 M903 Launching Stations, and five Electrical Power Plant III systems.