Bulgaria’s President Rumen Radev is in a tough position as Wagner PMC mercenaries advance towards Moscow. The president performed an apparent u-turn on June 24, abruptly swapping his openly pro-Russian stance with a shift towards Nato. 

Radev, seen several years ago as the symbol of Bulgaria’s opposition to high-level corruption, has become openly pro-Russian since the start of the war in Ukraine. He strongly opposes any military aid to Kyiv, claiming this will only prolong the conflict.

However, after the start of Wagner’s mutiny, Radev’s first reaction was to say that Bulgaria should strengthen its defence capabilities within Nato because of Russia.

Radev warned, as quoted in a statement on the presidency’s website, the conflict within Russia has moved from political to military. 

"Whenever a mercenary army is formed, which is heavily armed and there are certain people in it, it is a problem what will happen to it when the war is over," Radev said.

“This is a really serious problem for Russia," he added.

He also expressed concerns about Russia’s huge arsenal of nuclear and chemical weapons.

However, he commented that Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has “local and limited forces” and if the Russian authorities consolidate, they can neutralise Wagner.

Political analyst Daniel Smilov interpreted Radev’s comments as support for Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

“Analyst Rumen Radev with an express comment whose point is that, despite the scarce information, Putin will retain power. This may happen, but the question is whether it is the job of the Bulgarian president to make such predictions in an absolutely vague situation? I do not think it is his job unless the task is to do PR for the Putin regime’s at a critical time,” Smilov commented on Facebook.

Meanwhile, pro-Russian parties in Bulgaria remain silent. Kornelia Ninova, the leader of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), and Kostadin Kostadinov, the leader of far-right Vazrazhdane party, have not commented on the events in Russia at all and appear preoccupied with events in Bulgaria instead.

In her latest Facebook post, Ninova commented on the production of cherries in Bulgaria, while Kostadinov was busy attacking the ruling majority on domestic issues.

Popcorn and joy

While analysts and politicians are carefully watching the situation, many Bulgarians are excited about Prigozhin’s mutiny, seeing it as a good chance for Ukraine to quickly advance in its attack on Russian positions and expel them from its territory.

“Let’s make popcorn and watch the live show tonight,” Albena, 65, proposed to her friends who are spending their summer holidays together.

They are closely monitoring various sources of information and hoping that the mutiny will weaken the Russian forces and eventually put an end to the war in Ukraine.

The debate over Bulgaria’s position vis a vis Russia and the West has raged ever since the invasion, with pro-Russian politicians like Radev and Ninova repeatedly clashing with those who want Bulgaria to be a member of the Western camp. 

Political commentators, among them analyst Evgenii Dainov, commented that Putin’s rule is over, and it is only a matter of time before it formally ends.

“A catastrophic implosion of a military dictatorship was detected,” Smilov commented.

Radoslav Bimbalov, writer and communications expert, commented that what is happening now in Russia is not a civil war but a bloody battle for supremacy between predators.

“But while we are digging excitedly through the space to learn what is happening (because the Bulgarian main media have not yet received instructions on what to say), we should not miss the important news … The confession uttered by Prigozhin’s bloody mouth should ring in the public Bulgarian consciousness … the events of 2014 in Ukraine are the result of Russian aggression and purposefully provoked a conflict, and the threat to Russia from Ukraine and Nato in 2022 did not exist,” Bimbalov wrote on Facebook.

Dainov, meanwhile, addressed the Russophiles in Bulgaria, saying they should no longer expect that Putin will send troops to Bulgaria to install his regime in the country as he is weak and does not care about Bulgaria anymore.