Poland’s manufacturing PMI was in free fall in April, tumbling a record 10.5 points to 31.9, to the lowest point since IHS Markit began gauging the sentiment in Polish manufacturing in 1998, the index’s compiler said on May 4.

The precipitous decline of what is traditionally the first macroeconomic indicator to come out in May points to a worsening crisis that will likely weigh down severely on the entire economy in the second quarter.

The PMI has now remained below the 50-point line separating contraction from growth for 18 straight months. The outlook is predictably bleak, with companies wary of the long-term impact of economic lockdowns in Poland and abroad. 

“[The fall of the PMI] points to industrial production falling by 20% y/y in Q2,” Capital Economics said in a comment. Industrial production data for April is due later this month.

The PMI would have fallen further had employment intentions not held up relatively well in Poland, Capital Economics also noted.

“The headline PMI hit a record low during the month, as did indicators for production, new orders, exports, purchasing, backlogs of work, supplier performance and output expectations,” IHS Markit said.

“The rate of job shedding almost equalled the record posted in April 1999,” the index’s compiler added.

Current forecasts expect the Polish economy is going into a recession of 3-5% in 2020. Poland’s GDP expanded 4.1% in 2019, easing from 5.1% the previous year.