Deaths from coronavirus in Russia top 800 in one day, set new record

Deaths from coronavirus in Russia top 800 in one day, set new record
Russia's COVID-19 death rate has topped 800 per day for the first time, but with vaccinations climbing slowly the mortality rate is expected to start falling again in the coming weeks. / wiki
By bne IntelliNews August 12, 2021

The number of deaths from the coronavirus reached 808 in the last 24 hours on August 12, the first time the number has broken above 800 and the highest mortality rate since the pandemic began, according to Russia’s COVID-19 task force.  

A third wave of the epidemic is well under way in Russia as the delta variant sweeps through the country but the authorities are still struggling to persuade the population to get vaccinated. Russia has the world's fourth-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases at more than 6.5mn.  

The last pandemic mortality record of 799 deaths was recorded on four separate days in mid-July and early August, the Moscow Times reports.

The rising death toll has pushed Russia the mortality rankings. The country’s total death toll to date of 168,049 is the sixth-highest in the world, but experts say the true figure is probably just over three times higher: Russia’s excess fatality toll since the start of the pandemic is  531,000 as of June, which is 3.1 times more than the official death toll from the virus. That is one of the highest figures in the world, both in absolute terms and adjusted for population size.

The country has grappled with a stuttering vaccination campaign despite offering four domestically made vaccines at no cost and several regions introducing mandatory vaccinations for public-facing workers. Just 19.7% of the population has received two vaccine doses as of Thursday, according to independent monitors.  

Russians remain reluctant to get the jab, despite the government increasingly imposing mandatory vaccination rules and steep fines for those that refuse. Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin was the first to force citizens to get a vaccination in June when only 13% of the population had been immunised.  Several other regions quickly followed suit, although not the entire country. Some of the more remote regions east of the Ural mountains have not taken action, arguing they are so sparsely populated that epidemics are less of a threat than in the big cities. Since then the share of vaccinated citizens has risen to 19.8% of the population that have had two jabs and 27.3% that have had one.  

Sobyanin’s mandatory vaccination rules seem to already have had an effect. The latest wave of infections due to the delta variant took off on June 8 when the seven-day average of 9,000 cases per day soared to a peak of 24,649 new cases a day on July 12, after which the new rules kicked in.  

The new cases fell over the next week to 20,958 as of August 11, however, the number of deaths has not fallen at the same rate. The death rate took off a week after the new cases spiked. The seven-day average of 378 deaths a day on July 14 soared to a peak of 721 on July 20, after which the number of new cases plateaued. However, while the number of new cases is now falling slowly the number of deaths is rising to top 800 deaths a day this week.  

Some observers have been very suspicious of the consistency of the death toll running at just under 800 for the last few weeks and suggest the government is holding back the bad news just before the Duma elections which are slated to happen on September 19. One possible explanation is the authorities are bowing to the reality of the situation and the new death toll numbers are simply a more accurate reflection of the reality.  

If the previous pattern of a delay of seven to 10 days between changes in the infection rate and deaths holds then the death rate should also start to fall again sometime around the start of September, possibly creating a relief bump for the government in the voting shortly afterwards. However, there is no evidence to show that the government has been manipulating the statistics. In Moscow Oblast, that surrounds the city, deaths already peaked at 30 on August 5 and have clearly started to fall again. Deaths on August 11 were down to 27 per day and are expected to continue to fall.

 

 

 

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