“Building the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline from Russia to China is a rational decision that would have made sense even before the war, but the project will never be able to replace Russia’s decimated gas trade with Europe."
In the last week, two pieces of legislation have been passed, one in Kyiv and one in Washington, that appear to go some way to addressing the most pressing problems Ukraine faces in its war with Russia. They do not.
“As I write, highly civilized human beings are flying overhead, trying to kill me.” – George Orwell, England Your England, 1941
There’s a high probability that a new geopolitical balance can be established in the South Caucasus where Russia will finally be absent.
The central factor supporting Russian economic growth last year was the sharp increase in fixed capital investment. Increased budget spending was also used to finance investments.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan going ahead with “Birlestik-2024”. Russian consternation is growing.
While digital infrastructure in the region is growing, support infrastructure designed to handle the growth in demand is what requires investment.
The destabilisation of Eastern Europe created a paradigm shift in terms of EU enlargement.
In the March update of BOFIT"s Forecast for Russia 2024-2026 capacity constraints will become a major cause of Russia’s economic slowdown this year.
The economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), which experienced a period of stagnation last year, are poised for a modest revival in 2024, but both the Russian and Turkish economies are already overheating.
Russian forces must only make an offensive push for 250km to cut the Baltic states from Europe.
France is taking independent steps regarding the South Caucasus, as French President Emmanuel Macron attempts to bolster his role as a top European leader.
Candidate states for EU accession such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia remain in a zone of insecurity where Russia can intervene minimally in a hybrid way.
Sanctions on Russia have had mixed results after two years of war, inflicting real pain on the Russian economy, but the lack of effective enforcement has muted their effect, a panel organised by Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel.
In 2023, the combined state debt and state-guaranteed debt increased by 30.4% to $145.3bn, representing 85% of the estimated GDP (up from 49% in 2021 and 77.8% in 2022).
February is the new August in Russia. Ever since the 1991 coup that ended Soviet communism August was reputed to be the month of black swans that changed the course of Russian history.
Watching Yulia Navalnaya's stoic declaration to carry on her husband's battle against Putin and his regime, I found myself wrestling with scepticism, not about Yulia's intentions or her undeniable bravery, but about the broader context she is in.
Moldova and Montenegro already targets of Russian destabilisation efforts, says RUSI report.
It is a sad day for anyone interested in Russia and the former Soviet Union. Alexey Navalny, for all his flaws, represented a brave, unyielding voice in the wilderness refusing to succumb to fear of a merciless regime.
I cannot recall another instance in history when a US president invited an enemy to attack our allies. Imagine how those comments sound in Lithuania, Estonia, or Poland.