The Russian Defence Ministry said late on March 1 that Moscow could not guarantee the safety of Turkish planes flying in Syria after Damascus said it was closing the air space over Idlib region, TASS news agency reported.

The ministry issued the warning after Turkey shot down two Syrian warplanes over Idlib earlier in the day. Turkish forces also struck a military airport located well beyond their frontlines. The attacks were seen as a sharp increase in Turkey’s military operations in northwest Syria in the wake of air strikes that killed dozens of Turkish soldiers on February 27. That assault would appear to have been conducted using Russian air power but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not yet reached the point where he would risk turning the conflict in Idlib into a war with a major power—officials in Turkey have been careful to blame all attacks suffered in Syria on the country’s Bashar al-Assad regime, while playing down the role of its Russian backers and talking up the prospect of talks between Erdogan and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin taking place in the coming days. But Turkey’s president finds himself under building domestic pressure given his bungling of the economy and atrocious human rights record, and if he also finds himself backed into a humiliating corner on the foreign policy front there is no saying he might not lash out.

TASS cited Russian Counter Admiral Oleg Zhuravlev as cautioning Turkey: “In these conditions the leadership of Russia’s military contingent [in Syria] cannot guarantee the safety of Turkish flights in Syrian skies.”

Syria’s official news agency SANA confirmed the jets were shot down over Idlib region, adding that the four pilots ejected with parachutes and landed safely.

Turkey’s Defence Ministry said it had shot down two SU-24 aircraft and destroyed air defence systems after one of its aerial drones was downed.

Drone attacks

The Syrian announcement came after two days of Turkish drone attacks in Idlib province. Syrian activists said they had caused heavy losses to Syrian government forces. 

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar, speaking from military headquarters near the Syrian border, said Ankara’s objective was to confront Syrian government forces rather than Russian troops. He called on Moscow to persuade Syrian President Assad to withdraw to 2018 ceasefire lines on the edges of Idlib.

Turkey had “neutralised” more than 2,200 Syrian troops, 103 tanks and eight helicopters, Akar claimed. “The Spring Shield operation, which was launched following the abominable attack in Idlib on Feb. 27, continues successfully,” Akar said, referring to the air strikes that killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers.

Erdogan, meanwhile, continues to distract his domestic audience from the losses suffered in Syria and up the ante for more backing from the West in his struggle with Assad and Putin by opening border gates to Greece through which he has warned masses of Syrian migrants will pour into the European Union.

Violent clashes with migrants

Migrants trying to reach Europe from Turkey on March 1 clashed violently with Greek riot police. Turkey claimed more than 76,000 people were now heading for the EU as a result of Erdogan’s move to open the Turkish side of the border. Teargas was fired at the migrants, some of whom threw stones and wielded metal bars as they sought to force their way into Greece at the normally quiet crossing in the north-eastern town of Kastanies, news agencies reported.

Erdogan has claimed the situation in northwestern Syria could lead to another mass wave of refugees heading to Turkey. Ankara could not deal with such a wave and is struggling to host its existing 3.6mn refugees from Syria due to delayed promised payments from the EU, he says.

March 1 also saw the government in Athens send a mass text message to all international numbers in the border region appealing for people to stay away. “From the Hellenic Republic: Greece is increasing border security to level maximum,” read the message in English. “Do not attempt illegally to cross the border.”

The EU’s border protection agency, Frontex, said it was on high alert. It added that it had deployed extra support to Greece. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a meeting of his national security council.

Brussels has said it expects Ankara to abide by a €6bn deal signed in 2016, under which Turkey agreed to halt the flow of people to the EU in return for funds.

Istanbul police on March 1 said they had freed Mahir Boztepe, editor-in-chief of the Turkish edition of Sputnik, a Russian news website. Boztepe was held for two hours. The Ankara public prosecutor’s office said he was taken in as part of an investigation into whether Sputnik was involved in “degrading the Turkish people, the Turkish state, state institutions” and “disrupting the unity and territorial integrity of the state”.