The so-called Security Council of Moldova's pro-Russian separatist Transnistria region proposed on December 6 to declare a "state of emergency in the economy" due to the risk of natural gas supplies disruptions after January 1.

The region faces heightened energy concerns as the current transit contract for Russian gas through Ukraine is set to expire on January 1, 2025. Ukrainian authorities have made it clear that the agreement will not be extended during  Russia’s ongoing invasion. Presently, about 5.7mn cubic metres of gas transit through Ukraine daily to the Transnistrian region.

The local legislative body is set to review the proposal for a state of emergency on December 11.

Vadim Krasnoselski, the de facto leader of the breakaway region, highlighted the uncertainty of future Russian gas supplies to the left bank of the Dniester River, emphasising the need to prepare "for any development of events”, local media reported.

Sergei Obolonik, the so-called minister of economy, stated that in case of a supply halt, the Kuchurgan power plant (MGRES) would switch to coal. This measure, he said, would sustain "humanitarian needs" for electricity for up to 50 days.

Gazprom ceasing gas supplies to the pro-Russian region may look unexpected, as alternative transit routes exist. But the move would create tensions in Moldova and at the same time penalise the authorities in Tiraspol, which have failed to follow Russia’s recommendations since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, instead opting to avoid tensions with the central authorities in Chisinau. 

The central authorities in Chisinau are considering a similar state of emergency in the energy sector, as disruptions in the gas supplies to Transnistria would dramatically reduce country’s electricity resources and separately create an obligation for the central authorities to supply the separatist region with enough resources to prevent a humanitarian crisis. 

Efforts to secure alternative supply routes have faced complications. During a November 25 visit to St. Petersburg, Moldova’s then energy minister Victor Parlicov met Gazprom president Alexei Miller to discuss redirecting supplies via Turkey from 2025. However, Gazprom tied the deal to the payment of a debt it claims is owed by Chisinau, Parlicov revealed two days later.