Hungarians will head to the polls on April 3 for a high-stakes parliamentary election to decide whether to re-elect Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s radical rightwing Fidesz party after three consecutive supermajority victories or hand power to the united opposition led by small-town mayor Peter Marki-Zay.

The last polls before the election show a consistent 2-5% lead for Fidesz among decided voters, but pollsters still don’t rule out an upset victory for the six-party alliance as the outcome will hinge on 25-30 districts that are still too close to call. 

Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz party had every reason to be confident at the start of the year. Hungary’s economy was on track for a 5-6% growth after a record 7.1% expansion in 2021 and real wages were set to grow by near double-digits. In a bid to boost support, the cabinet unleashed a HUF2 trillion (€5.4bn) spending spree before the election, despite warnings by economists that it could lead to overheating. It also introduced price caps for fuel and foodstuffs to rein in any possible discontent before the election.

The campaign was rather tepid in the first two months of the year, mainly due to the passivity of the opposition after a historic primary election in the autumn that had boosted ratings.

After two failed elections the six-party alliance (the Socialist Party, Democratic Coalition, Dialogue, Politics Can Be Different, Momentum, and the former radical right Jobbik) formed a united opposition block, organised a successful primary to choose Marki-Zay as their candidate for premier, and agreed on joint candidates in all 106 constituencies and a joint countrywide electoral list.

While Fidesz switched to hammer Marki-Zay, opposition parties were engaged in behind-the-scenes haggling over seats and the national list. It was not until the Ukraine war broke out that they finally came up with their election programme, which therefore drew little attention.

Fidesz had learned from its 2002 election fiasco that communication based on achievements alone cannot lead to victory. This was shown again in the 2019 local government elections, when they lost Budapest and a dozen large cities.The setback confirmed the need for a strategy to demonise the enemy, which Fidesz had successfully mastered in previous parliamentary campaigns against illegal migrants or Hungarian-born billionaire George Soros.

The selection of Marki-Zay as the joint prime ministerial candidate had caught Fidesz by surprise. The ruling conservatives were expecting Budapest mayor Gergely Karacsony to win the primaries. For weeks pro-government media ran stories based on audited audio tapes suggesting that Karacsony was planning to sell City Hall.  The ruling party's communication had also replaced migrants and George Soros with Democratic Coalition leader Ferenc Gyurcsany as the new bogeyman, who is depicted as pulling the strings of the opposition.

But the war in Ukraine has turned the entire campaign upside down and become the key topic. After the chaotic first few days, Fidesz found the narrative that allowed it to cover up its cordial ties with Vladimir Putin’s Russia for more than a decade. The main message was that only Fidesz could ensure that Hungary stays out of the war, while the opposition would send soldiers to Ukraine.

Spin doctors have quickly reframed the narrative and Orban was depicted as the leader who can provide peace and security to Hungarians in times of instability. Orban’s peace narrative, which emphasises his equidistance from Russia and Ukraine, has upset his Nato and EU allies and even his strategic partners in V4 countries, but seems to appeal to large segments of the society and boosted his support.

While CEE leaders were making a trip to Kyiv to meet the Ukrainian president, Orban was making campaign speechs in which he did not even say Vladimir Putin’s name, nor condemn Russia’s aggression.

The Hungarian leader approved sanctions against Moscow but continued to play a double game, speaking a different language to his supporters. This may have confused some of his voters but as polls show the majority did not waiver, even after allegations that the government had turned a blind eye to Russian hacking of the foreign ministry.

Over the years his rhetoric against Brussels has turned Fidesz fans from being pro-EU to pro-Russian. The majority of his voters supported the Russian invasion of Ukraine (43%), with only a minority condemning it (37%), compared with the 84% of opposition supporters who are clearly opposed to Putin's war.

Undecided voters also may prefer the experienced Orban to be in charge during the current international crisis, Professor Andras Bozoki of CEU told a webcast of his university this week. “The crisis might not help the opposition as voters might not trust the opposition with crisis policies,” he warned.

Free but not fair

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has deployed a full election observation mission for the election with more than 300 observers, the highest in its history for an EU country. Europe’s main electoral watchdog labelled the last two elections in 2014 and 2018 as "free but not fair" and after the 2018 vote concluded that a "pervasive overlap between state and ruling party resources undermined contestants’ ability to compete on an equal basis and hindered voters’ ability to make a fully-informed choice".

The playing field in the 2022 elections is even less level. The single-round election system, gerrymandered districts, the appearance of bogus parties, legislation allowing vote tourism, weak campaign financing rules and media dominance will all benefit the ruling party, which continues to dominate rural and small town constituencies.

“Hungary is not a democracy any more,” Professor Andras Bozoki told the webcast. “The state competes on the side of the government. It is a very, very unequal competition.”

The vast majority of the 450,000 votes cast by ethnic Hungarians from neighbouring countries will also go to the ruling party, giving Fidesz a two-mandate advantage even before polls open in Hungary on Sunday. Orban has invested huge amounts of money in the ethnic Hungarian areas and recent allegations of rampant fraud in counting these votes may indicate he is taking no chances this time. Meanwhile, largely pro-opposition Hungarian voters in Western Europe are not allowed postal votes and have to travel long distances to vote at consulates.

Analysts asked by bneIntellinews say that as a result, the opposition needs 3% to 5% more votes than Fidesz just to win a majority of constituency seats in parliament. With an election so tight, gerrymandered districts where the election race is tight could tilt the election decisively towards Fidesz.

Observers in Hungary are dumbstruck by the pervasive presence of pro-government campaigns. Professor Jennifer McCoy of Georgia University, who studies authoritarian regimes, said Fidesz’s control of the public media was astonishing, in particular the way Marki-Zay had been only allowed one five-minute slot on state TV. “That was frankly shocking,” said McCoy. I’ve never seen anything like that.”

Pro-government forces have spent almost eight times as much on public billboards as the opposition. Fidesz has violated the spending cap of HUF1.18bn almost with its billboard ads worth HUF1.4bn, according to data from local NGOs.  The government and Fidesz have spent HUF3bn on outdoor ads in March. The opposition is lagging behind with HUF390mn.

State billboards about the war in Ukraine or the simultaneous referendum on LMBTQ issues are also in effect propaganda for Fidesz. Hungary’s poor campaign finance regulation also doesn’t deal with third-party actors, a tactic used by Fidesz to circumvent what are already vague rules.

Budapest streets are full of billboards urging people to vote ads on the referendum on LMBTQ issues. Voters will be asked four referendum questions for their views on legislation that limits schools' teaching about homosexuality and transgender issues and about allowing reassignment therapy for underage children.

A number of small parties also play into Orban's hands. The spoiler party launched by Fidesz-connected porn billionaire Gyorgy Gattyan is trying to divide the opposition vote, targeting young voters and using the Socialists' red colour. The Two-Tailed Dog Party, a joke party popular with young, liberal urban voters, could also help Fidesz win a crucial seat in Budapest.

Insurmountable polarisation

Political Capital in a research note said Fidesz has a 70% chance of winning the elections. They recalled that a surprise was still in the realm of possible scenarios on election night, as the margin of error of local pollsters was very high, due to a very divided society, and limited resources for polling agencies. The opposition alliance can cling to the hope that polls, in general, are still distorted in favour of Fidesz, as was the case in the 2019 municipal elections.

One of the main problems for the opposition is that the elections take place in a deeply polarised social environment. The deep division between the two camps seems insurmountable, which means that the opposition camp is unlikely to lure Fidesz voters, which had been the hope of Marki-Zay, a former Fidesz voter himself.

“People have made up their minds whether they are for or against the government long ago,” Caroline Plescia, assistant professor at the University of Vienna, told the CEU webcast.

The opposition can only count on attracting undecided voters, who are split equally on whether to keep Orban in power or not. This means that mobilising voters will be crucial as parties make a last-ditch attempt to boost voter turnout.

Still, the most likely scenario is that Fidesz will win the election with a simple but significant majority, gathering 110-128 seats of the 199. 

A landslide Fidesz victory would embolden Orban to continue the fight against the EU and his domestic rivals. In such a case, the Orban regime would continue functioning in line with its well-known nature, Political Capital notes. Compromise is ruled out, conflicts and war rhetoric would remain the key characteristics of the ruling party.

Efforts will be taken to take over further economic sectors and channel public assets to Fidesz-backed cronies, and multinational companies will likely face more pressure, as the government will need to fill the widening budget shortfall with extra revenues.

Political Capital expects public discourse to be restricted and operations against groups believed to pose a threat to the ruling party (NGOs, universities) would continue.

The opposition cooperation most likely would fall apart, its parties would seek to focus on their own political agenda, though there may be some mergers.

The silver lining for the opposition would be a slim victory for Fidesz, which could be seen as a disappointment for the ruling party. The changing geopolitical environment and the economic downturn will significantly narrow the new government’s leeway, not to mention the increased isolation abroad.

The new government will have to make unpopular decisions, such as lifting the price cap on fuel and food. Keeping household energy bills at artificially low prices is costing billions of euros and will be untenable in the long run. Without fiscal tightening and EU funds flowing in, Hungary’s budget deficit could widen to 10%, according to analysts. “Everyone knows there will be hard times,” says Bozoki.

For similar reasons the united opposition would be in a difficult position if it wins the election by a slim margin. The new government would not only face the tremendous challenge of dismantling Fidesz’s constitutional and state capture but would also have to address the looming fiscal crisis.

The new government would also likely face permanent political fights and difficult muddling through against the Fidesz opposition and institutions ruled by Fidesz loyalists and a hostile media.