Poland’s core inflation eases to 3.7% y/y in February

Poland’s core inflation eases to 3.7% y/y in February
By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw March 17, 2021

Poland’s core inflation, which measures price growth without food and energy, fell 0.2pp to 3.7% y/y in February, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) said on March 15.

The still-elevated level of core inflation owes much to non-market factors like increases in taxes, or administrative fees. “Generally, inflation in Poland has been in a downward trend for several months and this is expected to continue later this year,” Santander Bank Polska wrote.

ING offers a slightly different outlook. “The index might continue deceleration, it will only do so to a moderate extent. On the one hand, the lagged effects of the recession will work, but on the other hand, we see price pressures in global supply chains,” the Dutch bank said.

With headline CPI also easing to 2.4% y/y in February, the lower reading of the core index all but affirms that a period of stability in Poland’s monetary policy is ahead.

The National Bank of Poland slashed rates three times last year to an all-time low of 0.1%. That is expected to remain the case until mid-2022, which is when the term of the central bank’s governor Adam Glapinski expires.

Chances for the rates to change either way are next to none, Glapinski said this week.

Analysts expect CPI at around 3% in 2021. The central bank’s inflation target is 2.5%.

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