Poland’s Kaczynski orders voters to ignore Sunday’s presidential election as he strikes deal with coalition rebel

Poland’s Kaczynski orders voters to ignore Sunday’s presidential election as he strikes deal with coalition rebel
By Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw May 7, 2020

Poland’s pivotal presidential election, officially scheduled on May 10, will not happen and a new vote is going to take place in July or August, the chairman of the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) Jaroslaw Kaczynski announced on May 6 after reaching a deal with Jaroslaw Gowin, the leader of PiS’s junior partner in the ruling conservative coalition.

The decision to cancel the Sunday vote – regardless of its highly dubious legal character – appears a setback for the ruling PiS, which has said for weeks it wants the election to happen in May. 

PiS has been wary that the increasing economic crisis caused by the measures to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic could dent the chances of the incumbent President Andrzej Duda, currently leading the polls by a wide margin.

By July or August, however, Duda will have to campaign in the new reality of growing unemployment, decreasing wages, and company bankruptcies. Duda will undoubtedly trumpet the PiS’s government “anti-crisis shield” that will have averted the worst in his campaign.

Poland’s coronavirus recession is indeed expected to be the mildest in the EU, yesterday’s forecast by the European Commission said, predicting a slump of just 4.3% in 2020. That compares favourably to downturns of 6.2% in Czechia, 6.7% in Slovakia, and 7% in Hungary.

The issue of the presidential election has divided Poland’s ruling camp with Gowin, who heads a small conservative party called the Alliance, opposing the organisation of the vote in May amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. 

After frantic talks, Kaczynski and Gowin – both formally rank and file MPs – agreed that the Sunday election will simply not happen, which will pave the way for the Supreme Court to declare it invalid, the two said in a statement released to the state-owned news agency PAP.

What will follow, the two added, is the Speaker of the Sejm, Poland’s lower house of the parliament, announcing a new election, possibly taking place in July or August.

The new election will be via postal vote only, Kaczynski and Gowin agreed. The bill instituting voting by postal ballots will be debated in the lower house of the Polish parliament, the Sejm, this morning. PiS tabled the bill in April with the May 10 election in mind.

The bill gives the Sejm Speaker power to call an election this month, a potential risk to Gowin, given Kaczynski’s recklessness in pushing for the outcomes he considers desirable. The two said, however, that amendments to the bill making sure that the May vote is indeed postponed will be introduced as soon as possible.

The Kaczynski-Gowin agreement will raise further doubts as to the state of the rule of law in Poland, as they have effectively ignored the constitutional premises of organising and carrying out an election. The agreement’s tone – saying that the Supreme Court will declare the election invalid before it even has had a chance to review the case – is also striking.

On the other hand, moving the election offers Poland’s opposition to regroup and rethink strategy. Some parties – the biggest Civic Coalition (PO) in particular – could also consider fielding new candidates. PO’s Malgorzata Kidawa-Blonska fared particularly bland in the campaign, necessarily restricted by the anti-coronavirus measures.

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