Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan on November 28 came off as something of an awkward juggling act as, on the one hand, the Russian leader sent the world a menacing message that he stood ready to rain down the “Oreshnik” hypersonic ICBM missiles on Kyiv should it prove necessary, while on the other hand, he went through a repertoire of diplomatic niceties aimed at firming relations with Central Asia’s largest economy.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received Putin with considerable pomp—some in the Kazakh capital made plain their irritation at the number of Russian flags put out in preparation for his visit, complaining about excessive deference—but at the end of the day the Russian and Kazakh economies are in some mutually essential ways vitally interlinked. There were some big economic issues on the agenda and neither Tokayev nor Putin wanted to lose sight of that fact amid the international political heat.

Perhaps Tokayev was anxious to assure Putin that Astana-Moscow relations remain in more than workable shape, despite Kazakhstan’s continuing clear distaste for Russia’s war in Ukraine and its awkward announcement last month that it would not seek membership in BRICS—the inter-governmental club pushed by the Kremlin as a way to water down Western hegemony.

Central Asia has been amongst the biggest winners from the war in Ukraine, as the Kremlin turned to its southern neighbours to replace many of the Western goods and services that have disappeared from the Russian market, not to mention the transshipment of western goods to Russia via the five 'Stans. Putin was in Astana to expand and deepen these business ties.

Amongst the topics on the table were Russia’s bid to win the deal to construct Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, Moscow’s wish to transit sizeable volumes of gas to China via Kazakh territory (progress with establishing a Mongolian route is bogged down), the Kazakh need to maintain unhindered access to Russia’s Black Sea coast for the majority of its oil exports and attempts to calm an agricultural trade war, in which each country has banned the transshipment of grain export transshipments across the other.

Ahead of Putin’s two-day visit, Tokayev said he had "carefully read" a commentary by the Russian leader published in state newspaper Kazakhstanskaya Pravda. He noted that he had published his own commentary on the state of Moscow-Astana relations in Russia’s Izvestia.

"I think that we have very thoroughly, as if in unison, outlined our approaches to the development of cooperation aimed at the future," said Tokayev, who stressed in his article that Kazakhstan "remains a reliable strategic partner and ally of Russia in this very difficult time".

Now more than ever, Russia is in no doubt as to the geopolitical importance of not “losing” post-Soviet Central Asia and Putin made a point of thanking Tokayev "for his careful attitude toward the Russian language", making a reference to a ratification given a few days prior by the Kazakh parliament to an agreement to create the International Organization for the Russian Language.

Emphasising that more than 80% of Kazakhstan's oil is exported to foreign markets via Russia, Putin—perhaps slightly awkwardly for some, though the moment underscored how Putin and Tokayev are in no doubt as to each other’s economic realities—remarked that he and his counterpart always focus on "a specific result" in their talks.

As things turned out, at the conclusion of the visit officials provided little to no clarity on any progress made behind the scenes with the big economic issues—they referred to an agreement on transiting more Russia gas through Kazakhstan to Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan and they also referred to joint projects in hydroelectric power, car tyres, fertilisers and other areas, but had little to say about any decisions on the nuclear plant, the obstacles put in the way of each other’s wheat trading or the oil-to-China proposal—though there is the possibility that both sides did not want any announcements overshadowed by the intense international media spotlight shone on Putin’s latest warnings to Ukraine.

Kazakhstan’s importance to Russia is as a key geostrategic partner, particularly when it comes to forming a new economic macro-region across Central and South Asia—Russian political analyst Yuri Solozobov offered some interesting insight into this, saying, “Europe is clearly alienating us, and China is not native to Russia. We need to move towards Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. And instead of the St Petersburg ‘window to Europe, it is high time to cut a corridor to India”.

However, Putin’s trip was overshadowed by events in Ukraine. In addition to doing business, Putin was also in Astana to attend a meeting of a defence bloc, the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members.

At a press conference in the Kazakh capital, Putin threatened to strike Kyiv with Russia’s new and virtually unstoppable Oreshnik cruise missiles. Russia fired the first of these experimental missiles at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week.

“We do not rule out the use of Oreshnik against the military, military-industrial facilities or decision-making centres, including in Kyiv,” Putin said, warning the weapon was “comparable in strength to a nuclear strike” if used several times on one location and adding for effect: “The kinetic impact is powerful, like a meteorite falling. We know in history what meteorites have fallen where, and what the consequences were. Sometimes it was enough for whole lakes to form.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later in the day responded that Russia was guilty of a “despicable escalation” in the war, while his adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, said the claim that air defence could not take down an Oreshnik was a “fiction, of course”.

Putin opted to use an Oreshnik after the US, UK and France gave Ukraine permission to use delivered long-range missiles for strikes in Russia.

In the wake of the hit on Dnipro, he has kept everybody on edge as to just how far he might escalate with the missile and other means of war at his disposal.

When asked by a reporter to explain whether he was talking about potentially striking military or political targets in Kyiv, he responded with what he said was an old Soviet joke about the weather forecast: “Today, during the course of the day, everything is possible.”

The focus on Russian-Kazakh relations was well and truly over.