The first round of talks between the West and Russia over the expansion of Nato and cutting a new pan-European security deal have kicked off and will continue this week in what may prove to be the most significant dialogue since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. If the negotiation goes badly a new Cold War is on the cards at best and military conflict at worst.  

The first event was a meeting of Nato foreign ministers on January 7 that reiterated Nato’s position that it would not be dictated to by Moscow and would not place restrictions on which country could join the alliance.  

Nato foreign ministers said they remained united against any possible Russian military action in Ukraine and signalled that many security demands made by the Kremlin were unacceptable. First amongst those demands is that Nato provide “legal guarantees” that Ukraine, and other non-members, will never join the alliance.  

Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated the organisation’s hard line.

“We call on Russia to de-escalate and withdraw its forces and take the path to peace. We support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. And we stand united to defend and protect all Allies,” Stoltenberg said.

Stoltenberg went on to say that it was inconceivable that Nato would preclude any country from ever applying for membership in the military alliance, highlighting that Russia’s insistence for a commitment by the West to locking Ukraine out of even applying for membership of the military alliance will be a major sticking point in the upcoming talks.  

Stoltenberg anticipated the difficulty of the proposed talks, saying that Nato was prepared for the “failure” of negotiations.  

Speaking to reporters in Brussels following the meeting, Stoltenberg said: "We will make every effort to ensure a political path for the prevention of the use of force, but at the same time we need to be prepared for if dialogue fails. We are sending clear messages to Moscow that if it uses force, there will be severe consequences – sanctions economic and political."

Stoltenberg added that Moscow's demands are unacceptable and that the West will continue to support Ukraine.

"The whole idea that Ukraine is a threat to Russia is to put the whole thing upside down. Ukraine is not a threat to Russia," he said. "I think if anything it is the idea of a democratic, stable Ukraine which is a challenge for them and therefore Nato will continue to provide support to our partner, to a sovereign nation, but also, of course, recognising that Ukraine is a partner and not a Nato ally."

The Russian Foreign Ministry issued a draft agreement of demands in the middle of December with very specific demands, but which also contained some concessions. Russia has been equally adamant in its demands, threating “military and technical” reprisals if the West does not take the demands and the talks seriously.  

The points of the Russian draft proposed agreement included eight articles:

• Article 1: the parties should not strengthen their security at the expense of Russia’s security;
• Article 2: the parties will use multilateral consultations and the Nato-Russia Council to address points of conflict;
• Article 3: the parties reaffirm that they do not consider each other as adversaries and maintain a dialogue;
• Article 4: the parties shall not deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other states in Europe in addition to any forces that were deployed as of May 27, 1997;
• Article 5: the parties shall not deploy land-based intermediate- and short-range missiles adjacent to the other parties; 
• Article 6: all member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization commit themselves to refrain from any further enlargement of Nato, including the accession of Ukraine as well as other States;
• Article 7: the parties that are member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization shall not conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine as well as other States in the Eastern Europe, in the South Caucasus and in Central Asia; and
• Article 8: the agreement shall not be interpreted as affecting the primary responsibility of the Security Council of the United Nations for maintaining international peace and security.   

Some of these points are relatively uncontroversial like Article 4 that calls for a halt to military exercises near to each other’s borders. But the biggest sticking point will be Article 7, which calls for a ban on Nato expansion eastwards.  

Both sides are going into the talks trying to manage expectations by saying they don't expect a breakthrough in the first week of talks that started with a dinner between the deputy foreign ministers of the US and Russia on January 9.  

Russia harbours no illusions and does not expect “swift progress” from this week's security talks with the US and Nato, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said, adding that the collective West does not understand Moscow.

“We have realistic expectations,” he told Interfax on Sunday, adding that it would be “naïve” to believe the negotiations would lead to visible – not to mention “swift” – progress.

“There is a good chance that … we will face the US and Nato’s unwillingness to understand what we really need,” Ryabkov replied to another question from RIA Novosti. He also called “signals” coming from Western capitals ahead of the encounters “disappointing.”

If the US and Nato once again resort to pressure and threats instead of dialogue, that would only lead the talks into a deadlock, Ryabkov warned.

At the same time, Ryabkov warned that the West should not try and spin the talks out and that Moscow’s patience was limited, adding that the Kremlin would act decisively if it felt the talks were going nowhere.  

The Russian delegate arrived in Geneva on the afternoon of January 9 ahead of the meetings that are scheduled for January 10 in a follow-up to the Geneva summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden on June 16 last year. Russia has insisted that US military top brass attend the summit.  

That will be followed up with a Russia-Nato Council session on January 12 – the first since 2019. On January 13, security consultations within the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) will then start.