Syrian rebels Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have rapidly taken control of the whole country in only 11 days, but they are treading cautiously when it comes to the naval and airports under Russian control.

Satellite images released on December 10 show that Russian forces remain in the airbase of Khmeimim and the naval port of Tartus, although many of Russia’s ships have been moved out of harm’s way and are currently anchored some 7-13km offshore, according to different reports.

Tartus naval port

Opposition forces seized control of Syria's strategic Mediterranean port city of Tartus two days ago, consolidating their grip on the country’s regions, but have not forced the Russians who operate the port to leave.

A nervous ceasefire has been called while negotiations begin between the new leadership in Damascus and Moscow to thrash out a new relationship following the ousting of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad at the weekend.

The two bases are key to Russia’s logistical support for its operations in Africa and the Kremlin will be very keen to strike a deal with the new HTS-led administration in Syria.

New satellite photos from satellite provider Maxar of the Tartus naval base show Russian Navy ships anchored off the coast. They also show destruction of Syrian Navy missile boats at the base that were very likely hit by an intense wave of Israeli airstrikes across the country that has destroyed most of what was left of the Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAAF).

According to Maxar, three Russian Navy guided-missile frigates, amongst the most modern surface ships in the Russian fleet, and at least two support ships were in port in Tartus on December 5, but as of December 10 the ships had left port and at least two of the Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates were anchored off the coast. The ships are capable of firing Russia’s long-range Kalibir land attack missile as well as the new Tsirkon hypersonic anti-ship missile. There were also reports of a single Russian submarine moored at the port, which is now gone.

Previously, Russia had five surface ships and one submarine at Tartus, according to an analysis of satellite imagery by BlackSky and Planet Labs, Business Insider reports. All six vessels departed between December 6 and 9, according to the new satellite images.

Tartus has become a crucial naval base for Russia in the last years and has allowed Russia to rebuild its naval power in the Mediterranean again posing a threat to much of the EU. The loss of Tartus would drive Russia’s navy back to the only other warm water ports in the West in the Baltic Sea or Murmansk, Russia’s northern port in the western part of the country. There are restrictions on warships passing through the Bosphorus making Russia’s naval bases in the Crimea less attractive.

The decision to send Russia’s warships out of the port comes as Israel launches an intense bombardment of SAAF military assets across the country, including naval assets at the Tartus naval base. Russian commanders wanted to get their ships clear of Syrian ships in the port which have been largely destroyed.

Khmeimim airbase

Other satellite images from December 9 show Russian aircraft, helicopters, and military equipment still at the Khmeimim airbase. The images also suggest that the bulk of Russian personnel have remained at the airbase near the coastal city of Latakia, although the region around it is now under HTS control.

Russia has removed some of its planes, but others remain parked on the runway and have been left untouched by both HTS and Israeli airstrikes. At the adjacent civilian Bassel Al-Assad International Airport, lots of activity was seen in the images.

A large number of people and cars around the main administrative buildings can be seen in the images, presumably the Russian staff at the base.

The airbase provides key logistical support for both Russia’s African operations as well as the launching pad for Russian airstrikes on Aleppo that were launched last week during HTS’ advance, the first sorties that Russia had flown since the civil war came to a temporary halt four years ago.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency reported on December 9 that Moscow was airlifting weaponry out of the Khmeimim base that is near to the Tartus port.

Russian foreign minister spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on December 10 that Russia’s military personnel were still present at both the port and the airbase and denied reports that the Kremlin had been driven out by HTS forces.

Israeli bombardment

The Israel Defence Force has launched over 400 strikes on targets inside Syria in the last three days, destroying some -70-80% of the SAAF military capability.

A Syrian ammunition storage facility near Al Salamiye was destroyed completely, likely by Israeli strikes. Other locations hit included anti-aircraft batteries, Syrian air force airfields, naval bases, and dozens of weapons production sites in Damascus, Homs, Tartus, Latakia, and Palmyra, which resulted in the destruction of Scud tactical-ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea, sea-to-sea, surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, ships, radars, tanks, hangars, and more.

The IDF has also occupied the so-called Buffer Zone on its border with Syria for reasons of “national security” but a government spokesman denied reports that Israeli tanks had crossed the border into Syria proper and were outside the capital Damascus.