Strict and early lockdowns pay off in CEE/SEE while cases explode to over 80,000 in Russia

Strict and early lockdowns pay off in CEE/SEE while cases explode to over 80,000 in Russia
/ WHO/bne IntelliNews
By bne IntelliNews April 28, 2020

Strict and early lockdowns to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) are paying off in much of Central and Southeast Europe, where governments moved fast to impose restrictions on movement and closed schools and non-essential businesses in early to mid-March. 

As of April 27 the daily number of new coronavirus cases had dwindled into the low double digits or even single digits across many countries in the region, which are now tentatively lifting their lockdowns. 

Curves flatten in several Central and Southeast European countries. Source: WHO

By contrast, the number of cases in Russia has soared during April from under 3,000 cases on April 1 to 87,174 as of April 27, according to World Health Organisation (WHO) data. 

This puts Russia behind only Turkey — with the largest outbreak in the wider region at 110,130 cases as of April 27 — and Iran (90,481 cases). Russia has also now overtaken China. 

Russia now has almost as many reported COVID-19 cases as Iran, while Turkey still has the region's largest outbreak. Source: WHO

Chart key countries: Turkey (light green), Iran (pink), Russia (orange), Poland (dark red), Kazakhstan (dark green). 

 

Moscow is now preparing a third package of economic support measures, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told the cabinet on April 27, as reported by Prime.

As reported by bne IntelliNews, so far Russia has spent an estimated 2.8% of GDP, or RUB3.1 trillion ($41.7bn) on supporting the economy in two separately announced packages.

Despite this support, the approval ratings of both President Vladimir Putin and Mishustin’s new government have continued to come under pressure during the coronavirus epidemic.

Only three other countries in the region — Poland, Romania and most recently Belarus — have passed the 10,000 mark. This development is most worrying in Belarus, where the number of infections shot up from just 152 at the start of the month to 10,463 in the latest data. By contrast, the number of cases has increased more steadily in both Poland and Romania, the most populous countries in Central Europe and Southeast Europe respectively, though they have still quintupled since April 1. 

From similar starting points, the number of infections in Russia raced ahead of numbers in Poland and Romania this month. Source: WHO

Despite this, Poland is planning to push ahead with the presidential election scheduled for May 10, though this will be carried out entirely by postal vote. Polls say the incumbent President Andrzej Duda is on course for a knock-out victory in the first round; despite calls from the opposition and public health experts to postpone, the ruling PiS is determined to go ahead, apparently fearing the coronavirus-induced economic crisis will dent Duda’s chances of remaining in power should the vote be postponed. 

Elsewhere in the region, the Czech government will ask the Chamber of Deputies to extend the state of emergency until May 25, but at the same time has accelerated its five-step plan to gradually relax the emergency measures imposed to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic, including those on retail, services, culture and leisure, and tourism. Shops up to the size of 2,500 sqm will be able to open, followed by fitness centres, driving schools and libraries.  

Slovenia started easing restrictions on April 20, allowing various stores to reopen, including DIY shops, furniture shops, dry cleaners, vendors of cars and bicycles and some repair shops. Further loosening will take place on May 4, when hair and beauty salons and pet grooming salons will be allowed to reopen, as will some sports facilities such as outdoor tennis courts. 

Slovenians are also allowed to visit their holiday homes and attend to land in other parts of the country, provided they have documentation showing they own the property or have the right to use it. 

Neighbouring Croatia is also taking a phased approach to lifting restrictions under a three-stage plan approved by the government on April 23. Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic said on April 23 that the plans were drawn up following consultations with epidemiologists — and warned that the lockdown could be re-imposed at any moment. From April 27, all retail outlets except those in shopping centres will be reopened, as will services such as cobblers, key cutters and travel agencies, a government statement said. Transport links will resume, as will some sporting activities. 

If the first phase of relaxation does not result in a renewed wave of infection, a second phase will follow on May 4 that will see the reopening of services involving close contact with clients such as hairdressers and beauty salons. 

In an important development for the Central and Southeast Europe region, automakers are gradually resuming work, with strict new hygiene and social distancing measures in place.

Further east, Iran has said most of its border crossings with neighbouring countries have reopened for goods to pass, but passenger crossings remain limited, IFP reported on April 27.

Previously, Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, with its "rabbit warren" layout of corridors running more than 10 km (6.2 miles) in all, reopened on April 20 as part of Iran’s gradual lifting of restrictions brought in to address the country’s coronavirus crisis.

Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has extended its state of emergency until May 11, but Prime Minister Askar Mamin has also approved a list of business entities set to resume work in all regions of Kazakhstan starting from April 27. 

Data

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