The latest pre-election poll in Romania shows a potential surge for far-right parties, after far-right candidate Calin Georgescu unexpectedly beat established politicians in the first round of the presidential election. 

Romanians will vote in a general election on December 1, a process overshadowed by the ongoing political turmoil surrounding the presidential election. The two rounds of the presidential election were scheduled for the weekends before and after the general election, respectively, but a recount of first round votes has now been ordered. 

The general election was previously expected to confirm the “grand coalition” between the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and National Liberal Party (PSD), but the shock result of the first round of the presidential election has thrown the competition to control the parliament open too. 

According to a poll by AtlasIntel released shortly before the general election, the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leads with 22% of the vote, followed by two smaller far-right parties — SOS Romania and the Party of Youth (POT), founded by Georgescu — each polling at 4.6%. 

If both SOS and POT pass the 5% threshold for parliamentary seats, a nationalist coalition could control up to 30% of the legislature, complicating the formation of a democratic majority.

The PSD ranks second with 21.4%. Its leader, Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced on November 28 that he is withdrawing from the presidential race to focus on the general election. 

This is despite the ongoing recount that could see him overtake current second-placed candidate Elena Lasconi of Union Save Romania (USR) and take a place in the runoff against Georgescu. 

“[T]o my colleagues and all honest and hard-working Romanians, I say this: the most important fight is on December 1! The 1st place in the parliamentary elections means that the future government will have a PSD prime minister!" Ciolacu wrote on Facebook.

The PSD followed by the reformist USR with 17.5% support, and the centre-right PNL with 13.4%. 

Lasconi’s strong performance gave rise to speculation that a USR-PNL coalition might follow the election, but this now appears less certain, with the PNL potentially favouring a return to its partnership with the PSD to maintain the grand coalition. However, this scenario could be ruled out if the nationalist far-right coalition wins a blocking majority.

Recount in progress

A recount of votes in the first presidential round, ordered by the Constitutional Court, and allegations of Russian cyberattacks and and that video sharing platform TikTok favoured Georgescu have added to the volatility ahead of the December 1 vote. 

Holding parliamentary elections alongside a contentious presidential recount has added to voter confusion and strained electoral logistics. Members of voting stations are tasked with organising the parliamentary ballot while managing the recount process. This dual responsibility has created logistical bottlenecks and increased political tensions. 

Political parties have adapted their campaigns to the evolving situation, but the compressed timeline has left little room for clarity or consistent messaging. Adding to the uncertainty, Romania's key institutions — the Constitutional Court and Defence Council — have issued contentious statements that may influence public perceptions.

The overlap of electoral processes and the controversies surrounding them threaten the legitimacy of the parliamentary election results. Parties dissatisfied with their performance are expected to challenge the outcomes, prolonging the crisis and increasing the risk of political gridlock.