Time stands still as Kyiv waits for the final act

Time stands still as Kyiv waits for the final act
For Ukraine’s capital, there was little sleep again last night.
By Neil Hauer in Kyiv February 26, 2022

It seems hard to believe it’s been only two days since Russia launched its unprovoked, full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The pure chaos that has reigned as Russian missiles strike locations across the country and armoured forces maul the desperate Ukrainian defenders has brought time to a standstill, especially in the country’s capital, Kyiv.

It is in that city that Moscow now looks to try to bring the war to a swift end – or, failing that, to turn it into an urban inferno as its forces conquer the capital block by block.

Friday morning started much the same as the first day of the war. Ukrainian and US defence officials warned of an air raid on the capital at 3am local time, and while it took another hour to arrive, it was more ferocious than the last. Roughly 40 ballistic and cruise missiles struck targets across the city, including a residential apartment block.

Dramatic footage of what appeared to be a Russian jet shot down over the city briefly inspired hope in the defenders – until it emerged that the opposite was true, it was a Ukrainian fighter hit by Russian anti-aircraft fire from armoured columns only a few dozen kilometres away.

The next stage of Russia’s plan appeared shortly after dawn. Reports flooded in that Russian special forces had entered Kyiv, seeking to decapitate the Ukrainian government in one stroke by capturing, or killing, the country’s leadership, especially the defiant president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

A series of distant explosions were audible from downtown Kyiv at midday, followed by – for the first time – the sound of small arms fire from automatic rifles chattering somewhere in the distance. Amid reports of Russian operatives active in the government district, Ukraine’s members of parliament themselves were armed, itself a dire sign of the times.

The situation appeared to have calmed down by late afternoon – a few civilians ventured out onto the streets to gather supplies, but in even fewer numbers than the previous day.

But the situation in the capital, analysts believe, is only set to get worse.

Justin Bronk, a research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, laid out in stark terms what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is likely to entail next.

“We will likely know in the next 24 hours what the situation in Kyiv will be [in the near future],” Bronk said on a phone call. “Russia is currently trying to incapacitate the Ukrainian command in one blow, sending spetsnaz into the capital to seize Ukraine’s leaders, especially Zelenskiy. Once that occurs, they will install one of the many pro-Russian figures from within Ukraine’s government as a stooge and try to end the conflict quickly. Their hope is that Ukrainian resistance will crumble without centralised leadership,” Bronk said.

If that does not occur, Putin’s other option is far more terrifying.

“If they cannot capture [Zelenskiy], Russia will then have to try and take the city conventionally,” Bronk said. “The Ukrainian army will be able to use the city to their advantage [defensively], but that will only stiffen Russian resolve,” Bronk said. “All urban combat tends to play out the same way. Sooner or later, in order to make progress, the Russians will decide to simply flatten anything in their path. Any building they’re shot at from will be razed. They’ve come this far – they are not going to back down, even from this,” he said.

Those strikes would likely involve air power, heavy artillery and even the TOS-1 thermobaric multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) seen attached to many Russian formations.

“I pray to God we don’t have to see those used in an urban environment, but I fear we will,” said Bronk.

Those fears were only further buoyed by Putin’s newest address, this time targeted at the Ukrainian army itself.

In a speech broadcast from the Kremlin, Putin urged the Ukrainian armed forces to “take power into their own hands,” and rise up against Zelenskiy’s government. “We can talk to you much easier than those neo-Nazis and drug addicts who currently sit in power in Kyiv,” Putin said, in rhetoric even more unhinged than his rambling, pseudo-historical speech from Monday.

Russia’s foreign ministry then again proposed a meeting to discuss surrender terms, this time in the Belarusian capital of Minsk.

Zelensky, in a display of supreme bravery, meanwhile remained free as of the early evening in Kyiv.

“We are all here,” Zelensky said, standing next to other top Ukrainian officials on a street somewhere in Kyiv. “We are not leaving. Our soldiers are here. We are defending our independence,” he said.

For the capital’s beleaguered citizens, meanwhile, another long night in the shelters lay ahead. New missile strikes hit the city around 10pm, while Russian jets were reportedly inbound for heavier strikes. The city’s metro stations, meanwhile, now featured men armed with Kalashnikovs guarding the entrances, a sign of the threat of Russian infiltrators. “There are Russians in the city,” one of them told bne IntelliNews.

For Ukraine’s capital, there will be little sleep again tonight.

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