Analysts were on December 14 assessing whether long-anticipated sanctions levied on Turkey by the Trump administration essentially amounted to “softball sanctions” that would prove of little consequence to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

By moving now to penalise fellow Nato member Turkey over its multi-billion-dollar acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defence systems, US President Donald Trump—who previously has resisted sanctioning Turkey over the issue and has always cited his good personal relationship with strongman Erdogan of whom he has said he is a “big fan”—may forestall the need for action from his incoming successor, Joe Biden, action that would likely be somewhat tougher.

The Turkish lira showed little to no weakening in the wake of the sanctions announcement.

Thomas Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told CNBC that “strong, well-tailored sanctions are painfully overdue” but demurred: “The details will matter a lot. This could turn out to be a softball. If the sanctions are to be meaningful, they can’t be mere token.”

Timothy Ash at BlueBay Asset Management responded to the sanctions announcement in a note to investors, saying: “Very light—markets should be relieved by this. It could have been much worse. This clears the deck for Biden to reset relations with Turkey.”

Aykan Erdemir, who directs the Turkey programme at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a national security think tank in Washington, was quoted by USA Today as saying that if the Trump administration had failed to act, Biden would have been expected to impose sanctions on Ankara within a week or two of taking office on January 20.   

"I think now Biden can set a more immediate- to long-term policy [on Turkey]," he said. The incoming administration could place additional sanctions on Ankara or use the ones imposed by Trump as leverage to negotiate with Erdogan, Erdemir added.

Trump “shielded” Erdogan

Erdemir said Trump had mostly "shielded" Erdogan from punishment for a series of provocative foreign policy decisions. In a recent analysis, he predicted that Biden would be tougher on his Turkish counterpart, saying: "With multiple flashpoints on the horizon for U.S.-Turkish relations, a rupture may be imminent if Erdogan continues his provocations with a less forgiving chief executive in the White House."

Erdogan agreed to buy the S-400 missile systems from the Kremlin in 2017, but has so far not deployed the military hardware, despite some testing. The mobile surface-to-air missile systems are said to pose a risk to American weapons platforms such as the world’s most advanced stealth fighter jet, the F-35, the performance data of which could be compromised if it was tested against S-400 capabilities.

After Turkey accepted the first of four missile batteries from Russia in July last year, the US formally ended Turkey’s role as a financial and manufacturing partner in the F-35 programme—although much Turkish manufacturing for the jet is yet to be phased out given the difficulties in securing replacement production programmes—and also cancelled plans to meet orders from Ankara for scores of F-35 aircraft. This latter move has proved a headache for Turkey as it is yet to find an acceptable alternative to the F-35 available on the market, while, for instance, regional arch-rival Greece has stepped up its F-35 acquisition plans.

Sanctions menu

The sanctions against Turkey have been introduced under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). CAATSA has never before been used against a US ally. Trump was given a sanctions menu under the Act that he could choose from, some harsher than others. The selected sanctions put a ban on all US export licences and authorisations to the Republic of Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries as well as an asset freeze and visa restrictions on the organisation’s president, Ismail Demir, and three other top officers.

“We have repeatedly tried through our diplomatic overtures to find a way to resolve this [disagreement over the S-400 acquisition] by means that don’t involve the imposition of these mandatory sanctions,” said Christopher Ford, the US assistant secretary for International Security and Nonproliferation, during a call with reporters.

“We have also repeatedly offered them military equipment to help meet their operational needs in a way that doesn’t trigger sanctions and that is, in fact, a better answer in terms of the Nato interoperability of the Turkish Defence Forces. Unfortunately, Turkey turned down every single one of these efforts over the past several years now,” Ford said, adding the US had “no choice” but to finally hit its fellow Nato member with sanctions.

“Turkey is a valued ally and an important regional security partner for the United States, and we seek to continue our decades-long history of productive defense-sector cooperation by removing the obstacle of Turkey’s S-400 possession as soon as possible,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wrote in a statement announcing the sanctions. The US continues to press Turkey to not put its S-400s into operation.

The US State Department offered in 2013 and 2017 to sell Turkey Raytheon’s Patriot missile system, but Ankara both times declined because the US declined to provide a transfer of the system’s sensitive missile technology.