Ukraine's birth rate plummets to 300-year low as country’s population collapses
13 hours ago
Ukraine’s 3Q21 real GDP increased 2.4% year on year, slowing from 5.7% y/y growth in 2Q21, according to the preliminary estimates from the State Statistics Service released on November 15. The seasonally adjusted GDP increased 1.4% quarter on quarter in 3Q21.
This is another set of disappointing statistics showing the extreme weakness of Ukraine’s economy. With a 3.5% y/y fall of the economy in 3Q20, the result of 3Q21 means that Ukraine’s output is still below its pre-pandemic level.
The poor recovery of the economy in 3Q21 makes our forecast of GDP growth in 2021 of 4.1% y/y irrelevant. As we expected, the performance of the agriculture and construction sectors in 2H21 will be good, but will not be enough to offset the incredibly weak results in manufacturing. That said, our current outlook for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 is at 3.2% y/y.
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Ukraine's birth rate plummets to 300-year low as country’s population collapses
Ukraine’s population collapsed to 29mn souls last year, according to Ukraine Business News, with just 187,000 births recorded (including in Russian-occupied territories). This is the lowest annual figure in recorded history over the last 300 years.
Russia’s $13.4bn current account surplus in March second highest since 2007
Russia posted a $13.4bn current account surplus in March, more than double February’s $5.5bn and the second highest level for a March since 2007.
Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
Headline industrial output rose 1.8% in February, increasing for the first month in about a year.
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Slovak inflation eased further to 2.3% in March
Prices in the alcohol and tobacco sector increased by 19% y/y, including the 9.1% spike in tobacco prices as a result of the new consumption tax.
Polish inflation eases further to 2% y/y in March
The inflation rate landed within the National Bank of Poland’s target of 1.5%-3.5% for a second successive month
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