Ukraine’s 3Q21 real GDP increased 2.4% year on year, slowing from 5.7% y/y growth in 2Q21, according to the preliminary estimates from the State Statistics Service released on November 15. The seasonally adjusted GDP increased 1.4% quarter on quarter in 3Q21.
This is another set of disappointing statistics showing the extreme weakness of Ukraine’s economy. With a 3.5% y/y fall of the economy in 3Q20, the result of 3Q21 means that Ukraine’s output is still below its pre-pandemic level.
The poor recovery of the economy in 3Q21 makes our forecast of GDP growth in 2021 of 4.1% y/y irrelevant. As we expected, the performance of the agriculture and construction sectors in 2H21 will be good, but will not be enough to offset the incredibly weak results in manufacturing. That said, our current outlook for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 is at 3.2% y/y.