KSE: Sanctions tracker - Russia’s external environment improves in April

External environment improves for Russia – March trade surplus doubled to $16.8bn compared to average values in January-February; current account surplus rose to $13.4bn.

New Ukraine funding deal gives EU members opt out on military spending using CBR frozen funds

Neutral EU member states will be able to opt out of a plan to use profits from Russia’s central bank frozen assets to purchase weapons for Ukraine.

Russia’s poorest regions amongst the biggest winners from the war spending

Russia’s heavy military spending is acting as an income inequality equaliser. A raft of Russia’s poorest regions are the biggest winner from the militarisation of the Russian economy, as state money pours into fixing up regional factories.

Raiffeisen says pressure to cut Russian loanbook will complicate exit

Austrian lender suspends full-year target numbers after the ECB warning.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry calls on world to reject the legitimacy of Putin’s presidency

Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it does not recognise Vladimir Putin as the democratically elected and legitimate president of Russia the day before he was due to be inaugurated for the fifth time.

Nothing concrete has yet emerged from nuclear plant talks with Russia, says Uzbekistan

Tashkent has received proposals from other countries, though as things stand there are no talks on alternatives to Russian bid, UzAtom director says.

Russia’s government to change following Putin inauguration

Russian President Vladimir Putin will be sworn in for his fifth term in office on May 7 and, according to the Russian constitution, the government must resign.

Russian services PMI of 50.15 just above the no-change benchmark as Russia's economy begins to cool

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Russia Services PMI Business Activity Index just about broke even, posting 50.5 in April, down from 51.4 in March and only just above the 50 no-change benchmark. S&P Global reported on May 6.

Russian technology imports at pre-war levels, tougher export controls needed – Bruegel

Russia’s imports of Western technology have reached pre-war levels and the export control regime to stop the trade is full of holes. Tougher rules, enforcement and bigger fines are needed to curb the trade, according to a report by Bruegel.

OECD raises Russia growth forecast to 2.6% for 2024

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has increased its GDP growth projection for Russia in 2024 from 1.8% to 2.6% in 2024, making it the sixth-fastest growing major economy globally this year.

The State of World Press Freedom

The 2024 World Press Freedom Index, compiled by Reporters Without Borders (RSF), was released today. This year, the agency highlights a “worrying decline in support and respect for media autonomy and an increase in pressure from the state.

Russia’s car sector makes almost full recovery from sanctions shock

After coming to a total stand still in the months after the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia's automotive sector has almost made a complete recovery and is on course to sell 1.3mn cars this year - AEB

KSE: Russian oil revenues rising, tougher sanctions needed on shadow fleet

Russian oil export revenues surged to $17.2bn in March 2024, driven by higher global oil prices and increased crude export volumes, according to the April ‘Russian Oil Tracker’ by KSE Institute.

RAGOZIN: Exhausting Russia, strategies and fantasies

The long-delayed allocation of $61bn by the US Congress gives Ukraine yet another chance to negotiate peace with Russia without losing even more lives and territory, provided it succeeds in stalling the current Russian offensive.

Putin promises long-term stability, a more equitable tax regime in the up-coming tax reform

Russian President Vladimir Putin promised a planned tax overhaul would increase inflows to the state budget, benefit low-income families and provide long-term stability for Russian corporates at his meeting with the big business lobbying group.

Russia’s manufacturing PMI remains at robust 54.3 in April

Russia doesn’t like taking a back seat to China in Central Asia trade

But domestic economic woes may be slowing Beijing’s exports.

Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil refineries cause domestic petrol prices to surge

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries are causing a shortage of petrol on the domestic markets and have sent prices at the pump surging in the last few weeks.

Russia is producing weapons at a record pace, and Ukraine’s partners are trying to increase support for Kyiv

Russia is producing weapons at a record pace, and Ukraine’s partners are trying to increase support. Over the past year, Russia has learned to develop new weapons and ammunition faster than at any time in its modern history.

Top Russian mobile operator MTS announces $86.5mn share buyback

Russia’s biggest mobile phone operator MTS is offering its international investors whose shares have been trapped in Russia by sanctions an opportunity to sell their shares at a discount and get a return on their investment.