Turkey’s National Defence Minister Yasar Gular has claimed that the US may reconsider its embargo on selling Ankara the world’s most advanced fighter jet, the Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth aircraft, after witnessing Turkish progress in developing a rival, the KAAN fighter jet.

The claim appears to have left many military aircraft experts bemused.

At the same time as stating that F-35 sales might be back on for Turkey, Gular, Simple Flying reported, also told lawmakers that Turkey has decided to scrap the planned purchase from the US of 79 modernisation kits for old F-16s in its fleet because domestic contractor, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), now has the knowhow to upgrade the aircraft itself. Turkey would, however, proceed with an agreement to buy 40 latest-model Block-70 F-16 Fighting Falcons from the US, Gular was further reported as saying.

Discussions in defence industry circles point to Nato member Turkey’s revived hopes that it may acquire F-35s as more likely related to the Erdogan administration believing it might be possible to reach an understanding for a transaction with the second Donald Trump administration, due to take office on January 20. The Biden administration has remained steadfast in keeping F-35s from Turkey’s reach as a punishment for Ankara’s acquisition of S-400 surface-to-air (SAM) missile systems from the Kremlin. Washington was partly against that deal because S-400s could be used to access F-35 performance data, creating a national security issue.

Assessing Gular’s remarks, made to a parliamentary planning and budget commission on November 26, about the US appraisal of progress with the KAAN, Simple Flying wrote: “While the development of the KAAN fighter jet may interest the US in some way, it seems unlikely it would be enough to prompt it to readmit Turkey [to the F-35 development and acquisition programmes]. It is possible that Gular's remarks were more a statement of national pride than anything else.”

It added: “As Professor Justin Bronks from the think-tank, Rusi, commented on the TAI KAAN, Korean KF-21, and Russian Su-57 programs, ‘It's comparatively easy to produce something that looks like a stealth fighter-ish thing that will fly. It is incredibly difficult and unbelievably expensive to sustain the production of a weapons system that works as a low observable fighter... and also all the things you don't see when you look at a plane. The integration between the weapons and the sensors... [and other integrations].’

“In other words, while the KAAN may look like the F-35 on the outside and even fly like it, it is not it—not by a thousand miles—and should not be considered in the same league in terms of capability. Turkey is also likely unhappy that its arch-rival, Greece, is purchasing 20 F-35As, meaning that Greece will have a capability that Turkey will not.”

In defence media, there has also been increasing commentary on how Turkey is apparently worried by reports of the poor performance of S-400 SAM systems on the battlefield in Ukraine and Russia.
Ageing US ATACMS short-range ballistic missiles are said to have repeatedly destroyed Russian S-400s. The Ukrainians are also said to have used British and French-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles to repeatedly destroy Russian S-400s and predecessor S-300s.

Turkey may perhaps reconsider the stubborn stance it has taken over holding on to the S-400s—a standpoint that has denied it F-35 fighters—if the performance of the S-400 in combat conditions has indeed been as woeful as reported.