Dragon Capital halves Ukraine’s 2024 GDP forecast to 4% in anticipation of another year of war

bne IntelliNews December 8, 2023

Ukraine’s leading investment bank Dragon Capital has cut its GDP forecast for Ukraine in 2024 in half to 4% y/y in anticipation of another year of war, The New Voice of Ukraine reported on December 7.

Hungary subtly turns down Kyiv proposal for Orban-Zelenskiy meeting, former foreign minister says

bne IntelliNews December 8, 2023

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto has subtly rejected an offer from Kyiv for a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Prime Minister Viktor Orban, according to first commentaries after the news broke on December 7.

International banking groups mull expansion in CEE region

bne IntelliNews December 6, 2023

Half of the cross-border banking groups active in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe say they want to “selectively expand” in the region, shows the latest EIB survey.

This winter’s gas crisis in Europe is already over before it began

Ben Aris in Berlin December 6, 2023

Europe went into this year’s heating season, which started on November 7, with its tanks full to bursting; the EU gas storage tanks were close to 100% full as the weather turned cold.

VISEGRAD BLOG: What to do about Hungary?

Robert Anderson in Prague December 6, 2023

If the EU releases funding to Hungary in return for Orban permitting accession talks with Ukraine, populists inside the EU and in countries queuing to join will take home the message that the bloc’s democratic credentials are just a charade.

Zelenskiy video appeal to Congress for more help cancelled as Republicans present Biden with funding ultimatum

Ben Aris in Berlin December 6, 2023

An appeal Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy had been due to make to the US congress for more money via video link on December 5 was cancelled at the last minute as the Speaker of the House issued an ultimatum to US President Joe Biden

Orban raises stakes on Ukraine's EU accession ahead of summit

Tamas Csonka in Budapest December 5, 2023

Rejection of Ukrainian accession would deal a significant blow to the country's morale amidst the ongoing war with Russia, particularly given the hold-up in the US Congress to further US aid.

KSE: Financing Democracy – why and how donors should support Ukraine

Kyiv School of Economics December 5, 2023

The Working Paper #1 of the Economic Policy Advisory Council proposes how to structure the “deal” between the partners and Ukraine in a way that would build trust, and that would be most effective in helping to win the war.

CENUSA: The EU must not allow mistakes over Ukraine to compromise its expansion policy

Denis Cenusa in Giessen December 5, 2023

European military-financial support for Ukraine's defence efforts and its political-strategic support for ​​Ukraine's European accession are interdependent. They can have a positive influence on each other or can obstruct each other.

Ukraine running out of money again, as deficit hits a monthly record of $4bn in November

bne IntelliNews December 5, 2023

Ukraine is running out of money again as the state budget deficit surged to a record high of UAH145.1bn ($3.96bn) in November 2023, a sharp increase from UAH98.4bn in October and UAH87.0bn in September, according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance

Bulgaria’s president vetoes armoured vehicles for Ukraine

Denitsa Koseva in Sofia December 4, 2023

Radev has become openly pro-Russian since the start of the war in Ukraine and strongly opposes military aid for Ukraine.

North Macedonia says OSCE 'saved' at Skopje summit

Valentina Dimitrievska in Skopje December 3, 2023

Crucial decisions made on chair for 2024, budget and key appointments at meeting controversially attended by Russia's foreign minister.

LONG READ: The boomerang effect: sanctions hurt Europe more than Russia

Ben Aris in Berlin December 1, 2023

After two years of war in Ukraine, the sanctions regime has run its course. As sanctions rules are tighten they are starting to boomerang back and are increasingly hurting Europe more than they are Russia.

ICU: Ukraine’s economy becoming more resilient, but needs helping hand

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk of ICU in Kyiv December 1, 2023

Despite the significant headwinds Ukraine has faced in 2023, economic activity is surprising to the upside. Real GDP will be up more than 5% in 2023, inflation has plummeted to single digits, and NBU reserves hit historical highs.

Half a dozen EU members want new sanctions on Russia watered down

bne IntelliNews December 1, 2023

Half a dozen EU member states want new sanctions in the twelfth sanctions package watered down to limit the economic damage they will do to their economies, Reuters reported on November 30.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov lashes out at West at OSCE meeting in Skopje

Valentina Dimitrievska in Skopje November 30, 2023

North Macedonia's decision to open airspace to allow Lavrov to attend sparked a boycott by Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states.

Court ruling may free jailed Ukrainian oligarch Kolomoisky

bne IntelliNews November 30, 2023

Corruption case against Ukraine oligarch Kolomoisky to be dropped. Another big fish looks like he will escape justice as the fraud case against top Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky looks like it will be dropped following a court ruling.

Jailed oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky loses control of stake in Ukraine’s leading privately owned oil and gas company JKX Oil & Gas Ltd.

bne IntelliNews November 29, 2023

JKX Oil & Gas’ subsidiary, Poltava Petroleum Company, is a leading non-state oil and gas producer in Ukraine, holding five production licences and one for geological study, including pilot production.

Protest at Polish-Ukrainian border escalates as farmers join in

Wojciech Kosc in Warsaw November 29, 2023

Protesters said they are not ruling out escalating the blockade to cover all eight Polish-Ukrainian border crossings.

COMMENT: Falling EM inflation enters a second phase, but rate cuts will progress slowly in 2024

bne IntelliNews November 28, 2023

Inflation rates are coming down across the Emerging Markets and are now entering a second phase, Capital Economics said in a note on November 28. Central Banks are getting ready to cut interest rates but rate cuts will come slowly.