FPRI BMB Ukraine: How well could Ukraine defend itself against a Russian attack?

FPRI BMB Ukraine April 20, 2021

Russia’s military exercises near the Ukrainian border have many analysts looking into Ukraine’s capacity to defend against a full-fledged attack. While Kyiv has invested heavily in modernising its military, it remains seriously outgunned.

Unbundled: the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine

Ben Aris in Berlin April 20, 2021

Ukraine's gas market reforms have been a huge success. By unbundling production and transport, the country has attracted hundreds of traders that compete on a vibrant market that has eliminated corrupt scams and brought prices down.

Team Navalny pulls the trigger on the next big demonstration scheduled for April 21

bne IntelliNews April 19, 2021

Supporters of jailed anti-corruption activist and opposition politician Alexei Navalny called for the next big anti-government demonstration on April 21, the same day as Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a State of the Nation Speech.

Samolet see EBITDA up by half despite the coronacrisis

Ben Aris in Berlin April 19, 2021

Since Russian residential developer Samolet Group listed on the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) in October last year with a valuation of $721mn a lot has happened. Surprisingly most of it has been good.

EXPLAINER: Just how bad are the sanctions on Russia’s ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bonds?

Ben Aris in Berlin April 19, 2021

The White House has slapped new sanctions on Russia and targeted the Russian Ministry of Finance ruble-denominated OFZ treasury bills for the first time, the workhorse bond that is used to fund the budget. But what do the sanctions mean in practice?

Will Belarus merge with Russia this week?

Ben Aris in Berlin April 19, 2021

Social media was buzzing with speculation after Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko said that he was going to announce a “principled” decision of the last quarter century this week on April 17.

Navalny close to death as Kremlin attempts to ban his group as extremist

Ben Aris in Berlin April 19, 2021

Jailed anti-corruption activist and opposition politician Alexei Navalny is close to death as he goes into his 19th day of a hunger strike in prison and the Russian authorities try to ban his organisation as "extremist."

Azerbaijan fires info war salvo against Russia

Joshua Kucera for Eurasianet April 18, 2021

After previously denying it, Azerbaijan now says that Armenia fired Russian-made rockets during last year’s war. And now they’re trying to make things difficult for Moscow.

Czechia expels 18 alleged agents from Russian embassy after accusing Kremlin of causing explosion

bne IntelliNews April 18, 2021

Attack on Czech arms cache in 2014 killed two and led to the evacuation of a wide area.

Zelenskiy meets Macron as Russia engages in a diplomatic dance over a possible Biden-Putin summit

Ben Aris in Berlin April 17, 2021

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and for the restart of the four-way talks under the Normandy Format during a trip to Paris.

Russian industrial output back to 1.1% growth in March

bne IntelliNews April 16, 2021

Russian industrial output posted 1.1% year-on-year growth in March 2021, according to RosStat statistics agency data, making the first y/y growth in a year.

wiiw raises 2021 CEE growth forecast to 3.8%

Robert Anderson in Prague April 16, 2021

But pandemic has delayed restart of convergence with Western Europe until 2023.

COMMENT: Fresh US sanctions and OFZ primary market ban a global non-event, but sanctions possibly now entrenched quasi indefinitely

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna April 15, 2021

The US took a mild path for the time being with the new sanctions on Russia’s debt. Sanctioning the primary market activity of OFZs for US entities has little impact on Russia and international financial markets.

Geopolitics makes the Russian ruble rate highly volatile

Ben Aris in Berlin April 15, 2021

The Russian ruble has been through some wild swings this year as it has almost completely decoupled from the price of oil and is almost entirely dependent on the ebbs and flows of geopolitical tension.

US slaps new sanctions on Russia, including debt bans

bne IntelliNews April 15, 2021

The administration of US President Joe Biden on April 15 released details of long expected new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on US investors buying newly issued Russian ruble bonds that will infuriate the Kremlin.

Kremlin says Putin's attendance at a summit with Biden will depend on Washington’s behaviour

Ben Aris in Berlin April 15, 2021

Moscow is going out of its way to make it clear it wants to materially change the way the two countries work together.

MITTELEUROPEAN INSIGHTS: Russian 'sanctions bubble' vs Ukrainian and Turkish fundamentals

Gunter Deuber in Vienna April 14, 2021

For financial market investors, Russia is currently in the same basket as Turkey and Ukraine, but only on a temporary basis.

Russia’s leading investor relations consultancy hires former Moscow Exchange managing director to boost business development

bne IntelliNews April 14, 2021

EM, Russia’s leading communications and investor relations consultancy for clients in Russia, China and other emerging markets, announced the appointment of former Moscow Exchange executive Anna Vasilenko as CEO.

Biden and Putin talk for the second time – sanctions threats and summit promises

Ben Aris in Berlin April 14, 2021

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked by phone for the first time in a tense conversation on April 13. Biden warned Russia to stand down troops on the Ukrainian border but offered a summit with Putin as well.

TRENIN: Russia-Ukraine war alert – what’s behind it and what lies ahead?

Dmitri Trenin of the Carnegie Moscow Center April 13, 2021

Perhaps the most important thing for the Russian leadership in this episode was to prevent the need to actually go to war against Ukraine in the future. Going for overkill in terms of military manoeuvres now prevents actual war later.