ING: Europe faces stiff competition for natural gas

Warren Patterson head of commodities strategy at ING December 2, 2022

The collapse in European natural gas prices in recent months has created a false sense of security. While the current winter appears to be more manageable, the region will find it more difficult to build adequate storage for the 2023/24 winter.

PANNIER: Might Tokayev be the real deal?

Bruce Pannier November 28, 2022

Kazakhstan’s re-elected president has seven years to show he really does understand the meaning of the word he mouths so often, “reform”.

OPINION: Bosnia economic salvage supplants breakup mood

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman Intl Consultants Inc November 22, 2022

The main message of Bosnia’s October elections was a decisive rebuke for hardliners, with voters seeking practical economic cooperation to raise living standards and counteract mass emigration.

ASH: Turkey is heading to “incumbent democracy”

Timothy Ash Senior Sovereign Strategist at BlueBay Asset Management in London November 22, 2022

The vision for me of the weekend opening of the World Cup in Qatar was of Turkish President Erdogan warmly welcoming his Egyptian counterpart, Sisi. The two have long been rivals and have very different visions of democracy in the region.

RIMMER: You only sing when you’re winning

Julian Rimmer in London November 21, 2022

Twenty odd years back, Ron Atkinson, doyen among cigar-chomping and sheepskin-coated British football managers, was parachuted in, mid-season, to help bottom-of-the-league Nottingham Forest avoid the drop. The team was relegated after losing 8-1.

Hungary faces risk of severe economic instability if it does not get frozen EU funds, warns Oxford Economics

Robert Anderson in Prague November 18, 2022

Consultancy says economy could face hard landing even if it convinces Brussels to release funding frozen over its abuse of the rule of law.

COMMENT: Tokayev to win Kazakhstan election but then face most testing years of his presidency

Peter Baunov in Astana November 18, 2022

Incumbent does not aspire to become a political reformer, but an economic one with a Singapore-style focus on economic modernisation under authoritarian rule.

PANNIER: Russia will be the elephant in the intray for Kazakhstan’s re-elected Tokayev

Bruce Pannier November 17, 2022

With victory in this weekend’s snap poll a formality, the president will already be thinking about how to rebalance relations with Russia, China and the West.

ING: Polish inflation continues to rise at a strong pace, but recession avoided for now

Rafal Benecki ING’s chief economist for Poland, Adam Antoniak senior economist at ING November 16, 2022

The Polish statistics office confirmed its estimate of October CPI at 17.9% y/y and inflation continues to rise without let-up. However, the economy has avoided recession yet again, although the road ahead is bumpy.

ING: First signs of a technical recession in Hungary

bne IntelliNews November 16, 2022

The Hungarian economy continued its slowdown during the third quarter of this year and is now dipping into negative territory.

COMMENT: Russian tactics against Ukraine hit Moldovan energy sector

Denis Cenusa in Germany November 16, 2022

Moldova is in the front line this winter as Russia's attack on Ukraine spills over to undermine the republic's energy security.

NEMETHY: The cure for high prices is – high prices

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors November 15, 2022

Prices are important economic signals. High prices – whether for energy foodstuffs, etc., are signals to the world to (a) supply more; (b) substitute; or (c) conserve. But how do you bring inflation down?

RIDDLE: Further to fall – Russia’s grinding mobilisation

Nick Trickett for Riddle November 14, 2022

On November 1, the Russian public was told by President Putin that the government’s ‘partial military mobilisation’ was apparently over. But how will it impact the Russian economy?

PANNIER: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are only talking at each other. Another conflict is looming

Bruce Pannier November 9, 2022

As mutual recriminations fly over September’s short war, both Bishkek and Dushanbe are busy equipping their militaries with more arms.

Autumn refinancing shows ‘chickens coming home to roost’ for Turkey’s ‘contrary’ economic policy, says financial journal

bne IntelIiNews November 2, 2022

One Turkish bank said to expect third of international lenders to drop out of loans.

Iran for first time involved in major war on European continent, conclude analysts

bne IntelIiNews November 2, 2022

By sending Russia drones, military advisors and perhaps ballistic missiles, Tehran seen as making it plain that it regards the Islamic Republic’s interests as intertwined with those of Moscow.

OPINION: Serbia’s Vucic sends the same old message with his new cabinet

Ann Smith in New York November 2, 2022

None of the appointments in Serbia’s new cabinet provided the long-awaited answer to the question of whether the country is going to the East or to the West

NEMETHY: Are we now seeing Peak Russia and Peak China?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors October 27, 2022

The question in the title is perhaps a strange one to ask at a time when these two countries seem so powerful and aggressive, the former attacking Ukraine, the latter threatening to take Taiwan. But maybe they have reached their zenith.

Why Turkey is going nowhere fast with ‘lira-isation’

bne IntelIiNews October 25, 2022

And that, notes economist at Capital Economics Liam Peach, is despite the recent introduction of more extreme dedollarisation policies.

MACRO ADVISORY: Great Game 3.0: The Politics of Rail

Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory in Moscow October 25, 2022

Russia and China are the dominant trade and investment partners for Central Asian countries. But their dominance in the region is now being challenged by Turkey and Iran in a return to the "Great Game."