Opinion
Turkey Insight: Not weak at the knees yet? Credit default swaps just hit 520
Global markets are pricing in a Turkish default. The Erdogan administration is fixated on its pre-election stimulus and flattering Trump. The IMF says it ain’t had a call. And the IIF quite frankly is saying WTF?
COMMENT: Russia keeps accumulating foreign assets, sales of OFZ bonds driving exchange rate
April balance of payments confirms the corporate preference to convert export proceeds into international assets, making foreign inflows into local state bonds the only support factor for the ruble exchange rate
MACRO ADVISORY: Uzbekistan Terraforming: Privatization is the next stage
Since the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev in December 2016, Uzbekistan has been on a fast-track programme to transform what was, for the previous 25 years, a no-go investment zone. Privatisation is the next step.
COMMENT: Russian offshore? Not so fast...
The two offshore zones established in Russia last August for the purposes of tempting foreign-based Russian businesses back to the Motherland have yet to catch on.
COMMENT: Russia’s GDP growth slows in 1Q19, challenging the policy framework
Russian GDP growth slowed from 2.7% year on year in 4Q18 to just 0.5% y/y in 1Q19, well below expectations. Unlike most commentators, we attribute this slowdown to a pause in the state CAPEX rather than to the VAT hike.
COMMENT: Russia's controversial sovereign internet bill will stoke the very protests it is designed to quell
Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 1 signed the controversial sovereign internet bill into law. It will come into force November 1 despite the concern, confusion and even ridicule on show during its State Duma readings.
COMMENT: Technology can reduce the global plastic pollution problem
Annual global production of plastics has increased dramatically, from 15mn metric tons in 1964 to over 350mn metric tons now, however, a new technology can break down polymers and effectively recycle them
ANALYSIS: Trump offers talks after parking B-52s and aircraft carrier on Iran’s doorstep. Spot the “rogue nation”
Revolutionary Guard says no negotiations will be held with “unreliable Americans”. Adds US “will not dare take military action against us”.
COLCHIS: Zelenskiy faces tough choices amidst high expectations
Zelenskiy is allegedly supported by powerful Ukrainian oligarch and Poroshenko’s arch-rival Igor Kolomoyskiy. Ukrainian voters obviously believed that Zelenskiy was the lesser of two evils. What went into making that choice?
COMMENT: Chinese engagement in CESEE: paper dragons and false inevitabilities?
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is no less than an attempt by the Chinese to reshape the international order, but it has acted as a strategic opportunist and has no clear development plan.
Bank of Russia guides for first rate cut as soon as 2-3Q
Russia's CBR kept its key rate at 7.75% and provided dovish mid-term guidance that suggests a rate cut in the second or third quarters of this year
COMMENT: After the Ukrainian presidential elections: Anything is possible and nothing is certain
Ukraine’s president-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been on the job less than a week and he is already been tested by Russia and a new language law, but the biggest challenge remains winning seats in the October parliamentary elections
COMMENT: CEE Fintech Atlas: Old narratives are changing, innovations may flow now from East to West
After nearly three decades since the end of the socialist experiment many countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have made enormous progress, but they are still catching up to their western peers. But not in fintech.
COLCHIS: Media Sustainability in Eurasia: What does the Data Say?
Southeast Europe enjoys a largely free and vibrant press, but an index developed by consultant Keshif shows that the press is coming under pressure and diversity and quality are slipping.