Opinion

NEMETHY: Is monetary tightening the cure for inflation?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors January 26, 2022

The US Fed has not increased interest rates, just talked of increasing rates – not even by that much — and global stock exchanges lost $4.2 trillion in week. How can the Fed kill off the current high inflation without crashing the economy?

ASH: Russia escalation cost/benefit

Timothy Ash in London January 24, 2022

Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine, putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its Western border and also launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort to sketch out new red lines for Nato.

HOMANS: Former President Petro Poroshenko in the dock (sort of)

Robert Homans in Washington DC January 18, 2022

Today Poroshenko managed to make a mockery of the proceedings against him, without even being arrested or being put on trial.

RIMMER: Turkey - Let nothing astonish you

Julian Rimmer in London January 18, 2022

Given the regularity with which they manifest, it’s astonishing the Turkish language has no phrase equivalent to ‘nightmare scenario’. They should think about coining one, sooner rather than later, though, because another one is looming.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Ukraine’s military better at fighting

FPRI BMB Ukraine January 17, 2022

In seven years of war, the Ukrainian army has got better at fighting Russian-backed separatists despite structural problems. At the time of the Russian invasion in 2014, the Ukrainian army had only 120,900 active members. Now it has 250,000.

Geneva summit talks present no obstacles to Moscow’s developing Ukraine isolation strategy

Gav Don in Edinburgh January 13, 2022

Moscow's Ukraine strategy proceeds smoothly at Geneva Summit.

ASH: Putin is preparing for war

Timothy Ash in London January 12, 2022

I have certainly put myself out there as having the most hawkish view on Russia (compared to the street consensus), but I still find it difficult to see anything but escalation by Russia with Ukraine from the current postures.

ING: Poland's anti-inflation measures are a painkiller, not a cure

Rafal Benecki in Warsaw January 12, 2022

They temporarily ease the negative impact of high inflationary pressure, but do not reduce price growth over the long term.

RAGOZIN: Alienating Russia and the western made Frankenstein monster

Leonid Ragozin in Riga January 10, 2022

The end of 2021 was marked by a hair-raising confrontation between the two greatest nuclear powers, the US and Russia, over Ukraine. Did the alienation of Russia since 1991 create a Frankenstein monster of the West's own making?

RIMMER: Cultural learnings

Julian Rimmer in London January 10, 2022

“Cultural Learnings of America For Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan?” It would appear the Kazakh president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, a sinister dictator straight from central casting, would not appreciate Borat’s insight.

The West’s tricky relationship with Kazakhstan gets more complicated

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow January 8, 2022

Western government officials have long had to reconcile their desire for Kazakhstan’s vast natural resources with the country’s poor record on democracy and human rights.

DEATH OF THE SOVIET UNION: BOOK REVIEW – Reassessing the causes of the Soviet demise

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow December 28, 2021

Vladislav Zubok’s book Collapse: the fall of the Soviet Union examines the causes of the breakup of the Soviet Union and challenges the view that the collapse was inevitable.

FPRI BMB Ukraine: Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko is under investigation for treason

bne IntelliNews December 22, 2021

Ukraine’s former president Petro Poroshenko is under investigation for treason, the State Investigation Bureau announced on Monday. Poroshenko, who leads the European Solidarity Party, stands accused of co-conspiring in a criminal scheme.

OPINION: Bosnia breakup momentum flags feeble economy

Gary Kleiman of Kleiman Intl Consultants Inc December 21, 2021

Over 25 years after the Dayton Accords set out the unwieldy post-war Bosnia & Herzegovina construct, US and EU military and defence officials have suddenly sounded the alarm on disintegration danger.

CEE banking: As good as it gets in (post-) crisis times and the challenging geopolitical environment

Gunter Deuber in Vienna December 20, 2021

Western European banks have made double-digit increases in the growth of their credit exposures to the CE/SEE region in the past 12-18 months.

A possible Moscow game plan begins to emerge from the fog of almost war

Gav Don December 17, 2021

What are Moscow's next steps in the Ukraine crisis?

DEATH OF THE SOVIET UNION: Strong institutions are better than a strongman leader

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow December 17, 2021

The 30 years since the fall of communism show that strong institutions served the transition countries better than a strongman leader — despite a widespread belief to the contrary, found a webinar organised by wiiw.

THE VIEW FROM MITTELEUROPA: Belarus is now just a pawn in the Kremlin's bigger game

Gunter Deuber and Marcus How in Vienna December 14, 2021

The conduct of the Lukashenko regime has provided a convenient distraction for the Kremlin while it prepared for the round of poker that it was to play with the US over Nato expansion and Ukraine.

ASH: Ukraine has a much stronger macro position compared to 2014 and is better able endure Russian aggression

Timothy Ash in London December 13, 2021

Ukraine entered a new period of change following the EuroMaidan revolution. The economy collapsed in that year, but since then has made an impressive recovery, although the country still faces major challenges.

NEMETHY: Can the Fed engineer a soft landing?

Les Nemethy CEO and founder of Euro-Phoenix Financial Advisors December 12, 2021

If th tightens too far too fast (e.g. tapers bond purchases and hikes rates), stock and bond markets will crash; if it allows the current exceedingly loose monetary policy to prevail, inflation may careen out of control. What will it do?

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