Opinion

TURKEY INSIGHT: Peering into the forex hole

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 29, 2020

Hard currency reserves back in focus. Net portfolio outflows since December 20 stacked up to $6bn.

BCS: Pricing in a global recession

Vladimir Tikhomirov chief economist BCS Global Markets March 24, 2020

Recession is no surprise now, but uncertainty makes investors nervous. The situation has aggravated uncertainty about the duration and the depth of the economic downturn. Most assets have already priced in the recession, its fallout is still unclear.

Citizens fear unscrupulous leaders will take advantage of lockdowns

Clare Nuttall in Glasgow March 23, 2020

Restricting social interaction is a vital part of the efforts to delay the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, but in some countries people fear politicians will use the opportunity for their own ends.

COLCHIS: Why is Georgia succeeding with the coronavirus where many Western countries are failing?

Alexander Scrivener of the the Eurasia Democratic Security Network March 22, 2020

When the biggest health crisis in a century hits, where would you prefer to be: the Netherlands or Georgia? Until very recently, almost no one would name the South Caucasus country as their choice.

COMMENT: The Uzbek government reaches out to business ahead of its privatisation campaign

Fiezullah Saidov in Tashkent March 20, 2020

In the spirit of openness and transparency, the Uzbek government, represented by State Asset Management Agency (SAMA), has called on a large meeting of stakeholders such as development financial institutions (DFIs), news agencies including popular bloggers and Big Four consulting and audit firms and other interested parties to discuss the large privatization efforts it is undertaking.

COMMENT: Pandemic brings “S” back to ESG, Russian business responds

Irina Logutenkova and Tom Blackwell of EM in Moscow March 20, 2020

Russian companies have been putting ESG policies into place in the last year, but the focus until now was on the environmental element. In the face of a pandemic that focus has now shifted to the social part

THE MITTELEUROPEAN VIEW: Looking for LUV — what shape will Europe’s recovery from this existential crisis be?

Gunter Deuber of Raiffeisen Research in Vienna with support from colleagues in Vienna & across the CEE region March 18, 2020

There is a new acronym in the economists' lexicon: VUCA. It is short for “Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous” as pundits are struggling to explain a crisis that is coming at us from all sides simultaneously.

BCS GM: Money will not cure the virus, only time

BSC Global Markets chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov March 17, 2020

The reaction of governments worldwide to the epidemic has been predictable – countries have announced emergency lifelines, with regulators cutting rates and/or providing liquidity injections. But so far these measures have brought little relief.

BCS GM: Money will not cure the virus, only time

BSC Global Markets chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov March 17, 2020

The reaction of governments worldwide to the epidemic has been predictable – countries announced emergency lifelines, with regulators cutting rates and/or providing liquidity injections. But so far these measures have brought little relief.

COLCHIS: The Ghost of National Movements Past

the Eurasia Democratic Security Network March 17, 2020

Merabishvili doesn’t appear to have a viable political future. But if he chooses to re-enter politics, it will only reinforce the sentiment that Georgia needs a new path forward - an alternative to Georgian Dream, surely, but one that doesn’t recall the wounds of the National Movement era.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Ankara scurries to tap €1.3bn from local lenders as lira tanks amid “The COVID-19 Sudden Stop”

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 12, 2020

Not long off the canvas after suffering a near knockout in its currency crisis, country could find itself out of ammo in the face of a Global Financial Crisis II.

ING: Russia bracing for oil shock: initial thoughts

Dmitry Dolgin chief economist Russia at ING in Moscow March 10, 2020

The Russian market is facing volatility, with large fiscal reserves and high real rates coming back into investors' focus, but only after the oil- and corona-related dust settles.

MACRO ADVISOR: Oil War: Who will blink first?

Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory March 8, 2020

When Russia refused to back Saudi Arabia’s proposal for a deeper oil production cut in Vienna on March 6, it effectively fired the first shot in what looks like being an expensive and prolonged oil price war.

ING: The OPEC+ break-up: It’s not you, it’s me

Warren Patterson of ING March 8, 2020

OPEC+ knew they had to surprise the market, and that is what they did. Although the surprise was failing to come to a deal, rather than cutting more than expected. $30 oil here we come...

Komercijalna banka privatisation makes room for US soft influence in Serbia

Ivana Jovanovic in San Antonio March 5, 2020

The arrival of American capital in the Serbian banking sector, via Slovenian lender NLB, will help US efforts to fight back against Moscow’s influence in Serbia.

BCS GM: what will the impact of a global pandemic be on the world and Russian economy?

Vladimir Tikhomirov chief economist BCS Global Markets March 4, 2020

Many investors’ previous expectations that the coronavirus epidemic would follow the same scenario as previous outbreaks did not materialize. Now it threatens to become a pandemic, what will the impact be on the global economy and Russia?

TURKEY INSIGHT: Will dead cat Borsa Istanbul bounce higher?

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 3, 2020

Analysts see unique buying opportunities amid Ankara’s geopolitical risks and market ramifications of coronavirus. But Erdogan is playing a high-stakes game on Syria and refugees. Only brave investors should dare tread in his wake.

ING: Czech economy slows, and expected to slow down further

ING Think March 3, 2020

Czech economy slowed to 1.8% in 4Q19, but domestic demand remained surprisingly strong. But given the rising uncertainty amid Covid-19 outbreak, we expect growth to dip below 2% this year but the market pricing of almost four rate cuts are a bit too

AFC Capital: Uzbekistan’s golden hedge in a time of coronavirus

Scott Osheroff in Singapore March 3, 2020

The Uzbek government has been proactive in avoiding having any Covid-19 cases in the country thus far and the silver lining to its early stage financial development has made its equity market a golden hedge.

TURKEY INSIGHT: Erdogan plays refugee card amid “grande spectacle de merde”

Akin Nazli in Belgrade March 1, 2020

Severe loss of face for Turkey’s leader as dozens of troops in Syria air strike perish. Yet he daren’t accuse Kremlin. Transporting of migrants to EU border helps distract Turks and turn up heat on West for Idlib support. Meanwhile, lira crumbles.

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