Moldova’s exports contracted by 1% y/y to $266.6mn in November as the recovery in exports to the CIS was not strong enough to offset the drop in exports to the EU.
Having defeated his rivals in a series of power struggles in 2019, Moldova's President Igor Dodon enters the new decade firmly in control.
Robust growth is expected to continue as the outlook changed from moderate fiscal consolidation to more fiscal stimulus with the change in government in November.
The BNM’s decision to cut rate when inflation is rising, and provide further stimulus if needed, seems to be aimed at helping Chisinau finance next year’s budget deficit from the local market if it struggles to secure foreign financing.
Over the next three years, Moldova’s external debt is expected to rise by around $1bn, compared to a more moderate advance of $0.5bn over the past decade.