Czech opposition parties continue to dominate opinion polls before next year’s general election, with three populist or far-right parties now forecast to cross the 5% electoral threshold and claim almost half the vote.

According to a Median poll published on August 8, billionaire populist Andrej Babis’ ANO movement leads with 30.5% of the vote, with the governing right-wing ODS a distant second with 12% and their liberal Pirates coalition partners third on 10.5%. Both ANO and the ODS were down 2.5% on June’s poll, while the Pirates were up 0.5%.

Two other coalition parties, the centrist STAN with 9% and the centre-right TOP 09 with 5%, would also make it into Parliament, while the Christian Democrat KDH-CSL would fall below the threshold with 4.5% (though it rose 2.5pp). TOP 09 and the KDU-CSL are likely to once again form an electoral coalition with the ODS to avoid falling below the threshold.

According to Median, the combined government parties would have 40.5%, which would give them 91 seats in the 200-member parliament if they did not use an electoral coalition. 

Among the other opposition parties, the far-right SPD would win 8.5% (up 1pp) and the populist Přísaha (Oath) party is forecast to just enter Parliament at 5% (up 2pp), following its success in the European Parliament elections in June, where it stood in a coalition with the Motorists party.

Neither the Social Democrats nor the Communist party nor the Green party would re-enter parliament, leaving the Czech House of Representatives one of the most right-leaning in the EU, with only the Pirates regarded as slightly left of centre.

ANO – which last month left the liberal Renew Europe group for the radical right-wing Patriots for Europe grouping in the European Parliament – looks well set to form a government after the next Czech general elections, due in autumn 2025. 

According to this poll, even though ANO fell back, it could form a far-right government with the SPD and Přísaha (with a total of 109 seats). There is also speculation about a tie-up with the governing ODS (with 104 seats), though this would probably require the replacement of party leader and premier Petr Fiala by a more radical right-wing figure.