Berlin summit agrees attempt to stabilise Libya truce but oil blockade overshadows progress

bne IntelliNews January 20, 2020

Foreign powers agreed at a summit in Berlin on January 19 to try to solidify the unstable truce in Libya between the internationally recognised government, which is backed by Turkey, and the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA) forces of warlord Kh

Nobody surprised as Turkey’s central bank bows to Erdogan with another rate cut

bne IntelliNews January 16, 2020

Analysts warn of signs that the credit-fuelling of a strong economic rebound is already causing a fresh build-up of macroeconomic imbalances.

Erdogan warns he’ll “teach lesson” to Libya warlord Haftar if he resumes fighting Tripoli government

bne IntelliNews January 14, 2020

Turkish president angered that general departed Moscow without signing brokered ceasefire agreement.

Turkey’s top listed automaker Ford Otosan outperforms peer Tofas in 2019 exports

Akin Nazli in Belgrade January 14, 2020

Year saw Turkish vehicle makers export 86% of production. Exports were down 5% and output was reduced by 6%.

ING: Turkey’s unemployment trending down

bne IntelliNews January 14, 2020

October figures show economic recovery starting to cut the number of jobless.

VIENNEAST COMPASS: Risk outlook 2020 – balancing in limbo

Marcus How of Vienneast in Vienna January 14, 2020

CEESE had a good year in 2019, with the economies in the region buoyed by increasing domestic consumption and capital spending that allowed the region to decouple from western Europe.

TURKEY INSIGHT: “Liquidity trumps geopolitics” as Borsa Istanbul breaks consecutive records

Akin Nazli in Belgrade January 13, 2020

IIF sees capital markets awash in abundant central bank liquidity and disconnect from political risk. Catalyst for Turkish equity outperformance is banks’ upbeat forecasts. But lenders fear the regime, their views seem “Panglossian” says analyst.

Economic crash means three-quarters of Turks now ‘prefer supermarket private labels’

bne IntelliNews January 13, 2020

Survey also shows 87% of consumers make point of comparing prices at supermarkets before heading to shops. Figure is up from 72% a year ago.

CEE monthly bond wrap: CE issuers raise $44.5bn and EE raises $29.9bn in 2019

Ben Aris in Berlin January 11, 2020

2019 was a decent year for bond issues in Central and Eastern Europe, but still behind the vintage year of 2017.

Turkey ‘to sign $2.7bn compensation deal for pre-war work carried out in Libya’

bne IntelliNews January 10, 2020

Backlog of Turkish contract work in conflict-torn country amounts to $16bn says business council representative. Ankara militarily backing Tripoli government in bid to ensure its survival.

Industrial Development Bank of Turkey mandates lenders to sell eurobonds

Akin Nazli in Belgrade January 9, 2020

Confidence said to be growing among issuers after US-Iran crisis made for a slow start to CEEMEA bond issuance.

Borsa Istanbul’s top lenders Garanti, Akbank downplay NPL concerns in 2020 guidance

Akin Nazli in Belgrade January 8, 2020

Not a lot to choose between Turkey's two largest private banks but mismanagement of economy means there are reservations about both, says analyst.

Reduced global appetite ‘may be delaying’ Turkey’s traditional first month eurobond

Akin Nazli in Belgrade January 7, 2020

Vakifbank, meanwhile, has approval to issue €1bn of mortgage-backed securities abroad and to recall $500mn of 10-year subordinated (Tier II) eurobonds.

COMMENT: Will the US launch large scale war against Iran following the assassination of Qasem Soleimani

Fuad Shahbazov Independent Analyst in Baku January 7, 2020

The Caucasus states are now looking on nervously after the assassination of iconic Iranian general and Commander-in-Chief of the elite Quds Forces Qassem Soleimani as a regional war would be devastating

OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey (Part V of V)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 31, 2019

Erdogan still pulling off delicate balancing act keeping both Putin and Trump as allies. Latter has curious Istanbul business interests. EU, meanwhile, too engaged with its own urgent matters to spend much time on the Turkish thorn in its side.

OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey (Part IV of V)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 31, 2019

Punishing recession after currency crisis suppressed imports causing ultra-intensive rebalancing. But economy faces heavy weight of maturing external debt. Deteriorating global outlook a further danger to recovery.

OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey (Part III of V)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 30, 2019

‘Erdoganomics’ foretells inflation and rates in the single digits. It all seems too good to be true. Can the lira really take the strain? Steam has been seen coming out of the government financing and budget engine rooms.

OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey (Part II of V)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 30, 2019

Make no mistake, the economic situation faced by ordinary Turks is wretched. Erdogan has reached for the sugar of cheaper money. The sheer pace of monetary easing has set off alarm bells at the IMF.

OUTLOOK 2020 Turkey (Part I of V)

Akin Nazli in Belgrade December 30, 2019

A failure to rebuild economic credibility could prove fatal for Turkish strongman Erdogan but this wily operator will meanwhile do all he can to distract the electorate with other issues.