Turkey
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For first time Turkey’s LNG imports outstrip pipeline gas imports
Gas delivered via pipelines from Russia and Iran down 72% y/y and 33% y/y in March. US expanding shipments of liquefied natural gas amid glut as spot prices fall.
LONG READ: A thinking exercise on Turkey and its lira
Erdogan administration officials are working around the clock trying to convince the world the currency can defy gravity. Nothing adds up in their favour. The worry is that they will end up trying to defy voters instead.
Turkey ‘treads carefully’ as benchmark rate is cut by 50bp
Easing comes on back of some stabilisation in the embattled lira but markets remain concerned by country’s lack of FX reserves.
Gulf ally Qatar expands swap line to help Turkey defend lira
Currency falls slightly after news. Markets want to see more. Finance minister remarks “Imports will not be easy” as Ankara moves to boost domestic production. Turkish officials, meanwhile, said to be concerned by possible new rush for dollars.
Fitch cuts outlook on three Turkish banks citing Ankara’s weaker FX reserves
Rating agency also downgrades Halkbank from ‘B’ to ‘B+’. Ability of sovereign to support lenders in event of need has declined, it says.
Russa’s coronavirus cases close to 300,000 but PM says growth in new cases has halted
Slowdown in new cases in Eastern Europe, while lockdowns already being lifted in Central and Southeast Europe.
Markets seek leads on who might come through to save Turkey from second currency crisis danger
Ankara appears to be in swap line talks with UK, Japan, Qatar and China.
Negative surprise as Turkey posts March industrial production decline of 2% y/y and 7% m/m
Despite onset of pandemic and lockdowns market was expecting some growth.
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Bar high to Fed swap line for Turkey but Trump could weigh in says former top central banker
“I’m fairly sure that we will end up there eventually,” says academic in response to prospect of IMF bailout or capital controls.
Turkey steps up import compression and capital control efforts
Critic says Erdogan’s cajoling to keep rates low has caused investors to dump lira. With FX reserves sinking, back-door ways to lift currency, such as by squeezing trade, will be needed, but will shred central bank's remaining credibility, they add.
Press freedom watchdog calls on Turkey to revise regulation that ‘threatens financial reporting’
Academics say directive may prompt journalists to self-censor for fear of being fined.
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Retail sales under lockdown across Central and Eastern Europe are sinking
A worldwide lockdown has created havoc for retailers as their customers are forced to stay at home. There has been a little respite as sales in March surged due to panic buying but that has given way to a lockdown that keeps stores closed
TURKEY INSIGHT: U-turn in the face of ‘Devil’s triangle’
Officials lift UBS, Citi, BNP lira trading ban. Under regulator’s beady eye, local brokers stop offering FX trading on margin to retail clients. Foreign investors exit country at breakneck speed.
Turkey’s TAV and partner pay $415mn for Almaty Airport
Seen as sitting on strategic Asia-Europe trade junction along China's Belt and Road initiative to develop infrastructure and associated investments.
TURKEY INSIGHT: The lira has belly-flopped and London, it is your fault
Government media point finger at foreign market players as Turkish currency falls to all-time low. Banking watchdog issues wide-ranging regulation on manipulative trading. Critics say it has no parallel anywhere else in the world.
ISTANBUL BLOG: The “last legs” lira
You can almost smell the acrid smoke pouring out of the Turkish economy. But the finance minister has been up on the virtual podium to insist all is well. Curious analysts tuned into his charm offensive.
New daily coronavirus cases in Russia top 10,000 again, down to single figures in much of CEE
Russia now has the world’s second-fasted growth of COVID-19 cases after the US, with Moscow at the epicentre of the outbreak.
Capital outflows from EMs reverse in April to modest gains
The torrent of capital fleeing Emerging Markets (EMs) securities has stopped and these markets saw a modest inflow in April, reported the Institute of International Finance (IIF) on May 4.
Analysts caution against Turkish rate cuts despite fall in inflation to below 11% in April
With lira precariously weak, more monetary easing could pave way to repeat of 2018 currency crisis they warn.
“Sobering” PMI score for Turkish manufacturing in April
Steepest slowdown since global financial crisis as pandemic disruption takes terrible toll and lira weakness pushes up input prices. Index reading falls to 33.4 from 48.1 in March.