For the second day in a row, the Israeli military issued a forced evacuation order for the entire city of Baalbek on October 31, a Lebanese city in the eastern Beqaa valley home to more than 400,000 people and some of the best-preserved Roman ruins in the world. 

Baalbek is a Shiite-majority city with Hezbollah in charge. It sits close to the Syrian border and has acted as a transit point between the two countries, coming into increasing prominence during the Syrian civil war, where hundreds of Hezbollah fighters used the crossings to fight on behalf of President Basher al-Assad. Now, the city is the target of Israel, causing panic among locals and those who treasure antiquity.  

“You are in a combat zone where the IDF intends to attack and target Hezbollah infrastructure, interests, installations and combat means, and does not intend to harm you,” said Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee. This is the first time Israel has issued an evacuation order for an entire Lebanese city since the beginning of the war, having previously issued such orders for specific neighbourhoods or even singular buildings. 

Israel first issued the evacuation order on October 23 and has been heavily bombing Baalbek and the surrounding Beqaa Valley since. According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, more than 60 people were killed in Israeli strikes across Beqaa on one day alone, making it the deadliest day in the region since the war started on October 8th, 2023. 

Many thousands of people from Baalbek have fled to the nearby city of Zahlé, which has a Christian-majority population and has not yet been targeted by Israeli airstrikes. 

“The last 48 hours have been very violent in Beqaa. More shelters are trying to open up, but there aren’t enough,” said Rawan El Khatib, who is coordinating relief efforts in Zahlé

“Many of these people were displaced once, fleeing Jnoub (south) for Baalbek, and now they have moved again to Zahlé.” she said. El Khatib is displaced from her home in Dahieh, in the southern suburbs of Beirut. 

“Anywhere you look from Zahlé right now, you can see the smoke from explosions rising. Almost everywhere in Beqaa that is outside Zahlé right now is not safe,” she said. 

Meanwhile, an Israeli state broadcaster leaked a ceasefire proposal on October 30 that would establish “enhanced security arrangements” and work “towards the Implementation” of UN resolution 1701, which was adopted to end the war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 but never fully implemented. 

After a complete cessation of hostilities, the draft proposal lays out a 60-day implementation period, during which Israel would withdraw from southern Lebanon and the Lebanese military would confiscate arms from Hezbollah. At the same time, UN peacekeepers would monitor the ceasefire. 

A new International Monitoring and Enforcement Mechanism would be created, which would be chaired by the United States and include The United Kingdom, Spain, France, Italy, Germany, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, and “regional countries,” not including Iran or Iraq which is supportive of Hezbollah and the Palestinians.

Israeli forces would be required to withdraw from southern Lebanon within 7 days of the implementation period, while the Lebanese Armed Forces would be required to “steadily” increase its presence in south Lebanon, eventually reaching a total deployment of 10,000 soldiers — replacing Hezbollah, which has controlled the Israeli border for more than 30 years. 

The Lebanese Armed Forces would become the “only armed body” in southern Lebanon as required by 1701 — Hezbollah would unlikely agree to this part of any potential long-term peace deal. 

In order to implement 1701, the proposal requires that the Lebanese military monitor and enforce “any unregulated entry of arms and related material into southern Lebanon… any regulated facilities involved in the production of arms and related material,” and to “dismantle all infrastructure inconsistent with these commitments…”

Israel “may choose to act against violations,” and can strike weapon shipments or production facilities, after consulting with the United States, the draft states. The United States will work with the international community to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces so that it can “exercise control over all of Lebanon’s territory and to enforce Lebanon’s commitments.”

The proposal also allows Israel to continue its surveillance flights in Lebanon — something prohibited in the original text of 1701 — so long as Israeli aircraft are not visible to the naked eye or “break the sound barrier.”

When asked to comment on the leaked proposal, White House national security spokesperson Sean Savett said, “There are many reports and drafts circulating. They do not reflect the current state of negotiations.” 

In an interview with Lebanese broadcaster Al Jadeed, Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was “cautiously optimistic” that a ceasefire could be reached before the American election on November 5th, after a call with American special envoy for the Middle East, Amos Hochstein. 

“We are doing everything we can, and we should remain optimistic that in the coming hours or days, we will have a ceasefire,” Mikati said. 

The leaked agreement is “definitely stronger than the 2006’s agreement, but it’s too trusty of the Lebanese government,” tweeted Lebanese analyst Hanin Ghaddar. 

“Do we really believe that this government will implement what’s required here? Without a drastic change in the political scene, the current system will not order the LAF to do its job, and it won’t monitor points of entry,” she said. 

Israeli analyst Seth Frantzman has similar concerns. “The more I look at this agreement, it seems like an easy way for Lebanon to get a “ceasefire” when it is Hezbollah that has been attacking Israel,” he said. 

“I don’t see how the leaked agreement has any more way to verify or implement it than in 2006… and Hezbollah is still more well armed than after the 2006 war,” he went on.