The Belarusian Central Election Committee (CEC) has registered six pro-regime candidates to run against incumbent Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko in the January 26 presidential elections.

The six candidates now have to gather at least 100,000 signatures to support their bid before they are formally enrolled in the ballot. Lukashenko is automatically enrolled as he seeks a seventh consecutive term in office.

Belarusian law enforcers launched massive countrywide raids starting Oct. 31, Human Rights Group Viasna reported, saying the arrests and searches were part of a “pre-election intimidation campaign.” Viasna reports that the Belarusian KGB security agency detained dozens of individuals in the capital, Minsk, in the oblast centers of Homiel and Mahiliou, as well as regional cities across the country under the pretext of investigating an alleged “conspiracy to seize power.”  

This election will be very different from the last one in August 2020, when several opposition figures, more notably popular blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky and Viktor Babariko, the former head of Belgazprombank, a subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom, who were both jailed before they could register after they gathered hundreds of thousands of signatures.

Tikhanovsky’s wife, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, stood in her husband’s stead and is widely believed to have won the election that was massively falsified and sparked mass demonstrations that went on for months.

Lukashenko made the mistake of allowing Tikhanovskaya to register for the election, dismissing her as a “mere housewife” and underestimating the appeal of her passionate campaign. She was quickly driven into exile after the results came out and has spent the last five years lobbying the international community to increase the pressure on the Lukashenko regime.

The government is now preparing a lot more carefully for the new vote. The last four years has seen a severe crackdown on civil society and more than 1,700 NGOs have been closed, reports The Kyiv Independent. At the same time any potential protestors still in the country have been harassed or arrested. Human rights organisations estimate there are a record 1,300 political prisoners in jail.

Belarus has not held a free or fair election since Lukashenko first came to power in 1994 after which he changed the constitution in 1996 to remove the term limits rule that allows him to be in effect president for life.

The CEC has formally registered nomination groups for Anna Kanapatskaya, who was seen as a spoiler candidate during the 2020 presidential elections, Siarhei Bobrykau, chairman of the Belarusian Union of Officers, and Siarhei Syrankou, leader of the Communist Party of Belarus, the The Kyiv Independent reports.

Additionally, Lukashenko and three other loyalists have also been cleared: Aleh Haidukevich, leader of the pro-Lukashenko Liberal Democratic Party; Alexander Hizhnyak, leader of the Republican Party; and Olga Chemodanova, a former spokeswoman for the Interior Ministry.

Lukashenko himself has downplayed the appearance of competition, stating that his supporters are motivated primarily by a desire to "secure" his candidacy. "I'm sure they just want to flank me here, to keep me safe, no more, no less. Well, I would like it that way," Lukashenko told a state-owned TV channel as cited by The Kyiv Independent.

The opposition in exile have been arguing about how to deal with the upcoming election, with some saying they should campaign and others that believe they have no role to play in the vote and should focus on their international campaign.

The Lukashenko has perfected its tools of repression over the last five years, in particular mobilising factory general directors to police their staff to great effect. Those who supported alternative candidates in 2020, particularly employees at government agencies, banks, military enterprises, and factories, faced repercussions, including dismissal from their jobs. In 2020, workers came close to calling a general strike that could have brought Lukashenko down. Lukashenko had his Ceausescu moment when factory workers heckled him at a public meeting, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to promise “everything needed” to support Lukashenko, which was widely taken to mean he would send in OMON riot police.

Tikhanovskaya has condemned the upcoming vote as an "imitation" and "non-elections." Her office has called on supporters to demonstrate their dissent by voting against all candidates. Other figures within the exiled opposition have advocated for a full boycott or consolidated voting for one of the spoiler candidates.