With relations with Russia at an historic low, Armenia is taking bold steps towards the West. 

The Armenian parliament, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's Civil Contract Party holds a majority, is set to vote in favour of a bill signalling the start of the European Union accession process. Pashinyan's government has already approved the draft law initiating this process, supported by 60,000 signatures from Armenian citizens. Moreover, on January 14, Armenia signed a strategic partnership agreement with the US.

Pashinyan has announced that a roadmap for Armenia's EU accession will be agreed upon with Brussels. He is the first Armenian leader to publicly declare Armenia's goal of joining the EU. Pashinyan first mentioned Armenia’s European aspirations in October 2023, a month after the forced displacement in Nagorno-Karabakh, during a speech in the European Parliament: “Armenia is ready to be as close to the European Union as the EU deems possible,” he said. 

Brussels has already responded to Yerevan’s decision. EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos said that the EU will examine Armenia's potential application for membership. She plans to visit Armenia in the first half of 2025 to coordinate upcoming actions with Pashinyan's government.

Strategic mistake 

By initiating the formal process of joining the EU, Armenia seeks to rectify a strategic mistake made 12 years ago. After four years of negotiations with the EU on an Association Agreement, former president Serzh Sargsyan unexpectedly announced Armenia’s intention to join the Russia-led Customs Union following a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 3, 2013.

Faced with the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the threat of war with Azerbaijan, Sargsyan calculated that joining the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) would secure Russia’s military-political support. 

However, since the 2010s, Russia has signed arms supply deals worth billions of dollars with Azerbaijan. Russian-supplied weapons were used against Nagorno-Karabakh during the wars of 2016 and 2020.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), from 2011 to 2020, Russia and Belarus supplied 67% of Azerbaijan's military arsenal, with over 60% coming directly from Russia.

This led Pashinyan to accuse Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of preparing a war against Armenia. These accusations laid the groundwork for Armenia's strategic pivot to the West.

By arming Baku against Armenia, Russia failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians during the 44-day war in 2020 and Azerbaijan's attack on September 19, 2023, which led to the forced displacement of 150,000 Armenians. Nagorno-Karabakh fell under Azerbaijan’s control. Russia also failed to protect Nagorno-Karabakh's pro-Russian leaders, who, under the supposed "protection" of Russian peacekeepers, ended up in Azerbaijani prisons.

Moreover, Russia and the CSTO refused to fulfil their security obligations to Armenia during Azerbaijan's military campaigns from 2021 to 2024, leading to the occupation of 300 square kilometres of Armenian territory. Russia's and the CSTO's refusal to honour their security commitments convinced much of Armenia's leadership and society that Putin is encouraging Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to launch further attacks on Armenia. Putin not only denies Azerbaijan's aggression but has recently claimed that no external aggression has occurred against Armenia. 

For Armenia, membership in the EEU and CSTO is now widely regarded as a strategic mistake. Armenia abandoned the prospect of EU membership in 2013 for nothing. 

Although the EU is not a military organisation, its observation mission has played a stabilising role on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, more effectively than Russian forces. Armenia has received €10mn in support from the European Peace Facility.

Armenia finds new allies 

Armenia sees signing the strategic partnership with the US and initiating the EU accession process as opportunities to enhance its sovereignty and economic prosperity, which, in turn, will strengthen its security. EU membership or candidate status may deter Azerbaijan from further aggression. It is no coincidence that Pashinyan’s government approved the EU accession bill shortly after Aliyev’s belligerent statements against Armenia.

Under the threat of Azerbaijani attacks, Armenia needs reliable allies. After abandoning the EU Association Agreement, Armenia did not secure the promised protection from Russia, lost Nagorno-Karabakh, and saw its territory partially occupied. Having paid a heavy price, Armenia's political elite has realised that Russia is no true ally and has been forced to return to the EU membership agenda.

Diplomatic sources say that Armenia's EU membership was discussed during the April 5, 2024 meeting in Brussels between Pashinyan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. During that meeting, the US and EU committed to supporting Armenia’s resilience through economic diversification. 

In the first nine months of 2024, 42% of Armenia’s foreign trade was with Russia, while only 7.3% was with the EU. Armenia’s heavy dependence on Russia for energy and food poses a national security threat.

Russian warnings 

With a broad arsenal of economic, political and energy leverage over Armenia, Russia has already begun warning Armenia about the consequences of leaving the EEU and joining the EU.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk warned that leaving the EEU could lead to higher energy and food prices in Armenia, and exports could drop by 70-80%. Russia is expected to increase gas prices to harm Armenia’s economy. It is also likely that Russia will ban Armenian goods from entering its market.

Armenia’s significant trade dependence on Russia might raise skepticism about EU integration goals. However, Armenian officials consider the increase in exports to Russia to be situational, as Armenian businesses are temporarily benefiting from the vacuum in the Russian markets. 

Armenia also faces military-political threats from Russia. Moscow and Baku are demanding that Armenia provide a corridor linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan, known as the Zangezur Corridor, under the control of Russian security forces.

Within Pashinyan's team, there is a well-founded assessment that the Kremlin is inciting Azerbaijan to launch attacks to secure the Zangezur Corridor. Pashinyan’s Crossroads of Peace project, aimed at improving Armenia's links to neighbours Georgia, Iran and Turkey and excluding Russian involvement, has the support of the US, EU and France — Western powers that support Armenia's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A new Cold War

Pashinyan’s government believes a new Cold War is emerging between Russia and the West, and Armenia will be forced to choose a side. Here, all calculations are against Russia. Not only is Russia not an ally to Armenia, but it is also making political demands together with Azerbaijan. Furthermore, it is highly likely that a new Iron Curtain will descend between the West and Russia as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war. To overcome the risk of “Belarusisation”, Armenia is initiating a process of disengagement from Russia and deepening ties with the West at an institutional level. Armenia has made a strategic choice in favour of the West. 

Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov and Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, have stated that Armenia must choose between the EU and the EEU, as these are mutually exclusive customs unions. 

This demand could accelerate Armenia’s withdrawal from the CSTO and EEU. While Russia may impose economic sanctions, Armenian officials are confident the EU is prepared to counteract these measures.

During a meeting in Brussels on April 5, 2024, Armenia, the US and the EU agreed on economic programmes aimed at preparing the Armenian economy for EU membership. The EU announced the €270mn Resilience and Growth programme to strengthen Armenia's economy and, as EU Ambassador Vassilis Maragos stated, to bring Armenia closer to Europe.

The US has also provided financial support. Signing a strategic agreement with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, Blinken announced that the US is also cooperating with Armenia in the security sector to ensure the protection of Armenia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Armenia and the US have established a strategic partnership commission to expand cooperation in economic, security, defence, democracy, inclusiveness and other areas.

Of course, Armenia has significant work to do to align its state and economy with EU standards. It is suggested that Pashinyan's government establish a third deputy prime minister's office dedicated exclusively to managing the EU accession process.

Russian retreat

Russia, once Armenia’s principal ally in the South Caucasus, is retreating from the region. Moscow realises it is losing Armenia, which has been considered its main ally in the South Caucasus for decades. If Armenia progresses with EU membership, Russian military forces, including the 102nd base, will likely be withdrawn, and Armenia will assume full control over its borders with Turkey and Iran.

During Pashinyan and Putin's last meeting, agreements were reached on the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Iranian border checkpoint and joint Armenian-Russian control of borders with Iran and Turkey. Russian border guards have already been withdrawn from the Zvartnots International Airport area, and 17 Russian military posts along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border have been dismantled. 

Armenia and the EU have begun negotiations on visa liberalisation. One of the EU's conditions is Armenia's independent management of its borders and checkpoints. Since Yerevan is determined to achieve visa-free travel with the EU within 3-5 years, it is logical to expect the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Iranian and Turkish borders in the coming years. 

Preparations are already underway for the de-Russification of Armenia’s external borders. With EU support, Armenia is currently enhancing its border security capabilities, enabling it to manage the borders with Turkey and Iran technically. A specialised US. border security team will arrive in Armenia to conduct joint border security operations.

Tough talks ahead 

In the coming weeks, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Russia are expected to engage in serious political discussions about Armenia's European integration and withdrawal from Russian integration structures. 

Declaring that Armenia cannot sit on two chairs, Lavrov announced that he has invited Armenian Mirzoyan to Moscow. There is no doubt that Moscow will attempt to repeat the scenario of September 3, 2013, when Sargsyan, under Putin's pressure, abandoned the EU Association Agreement and chose EEU membership instead.

That was not the choice of the Armenian people but Putin's imposition on Armenia's president. Waging war against Ukraine, Russia has failed to achieve its strategic goals and is not in the same position as it was in 2013. With the accession of Sweden and Finland, Nato has moved closer to Russia's borders, and Putin has been unable to counter this step.

Russia surpasses Armenia in economic, military and energy terms. However, given its international isolation and sanctions, it is unlikely that Putin will open a new front in the Caucasus. Armenia does not share a land border with Russia, which reduces the likelihood of Russian military aggression.

Indeed, Russia is already retreating from the South Caucasus. On November 9, 2020, Russia deployed a peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh, intending to stay for decades. However, three years later, Russia was forced to withdraw. 

Similarly, Russia invested billions of dollars and significant political and military resources to maintain Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria but stood by when Assad’s dynasty faced attacks. Consequently, Russia is losing its foothold in the Middle East, which is far more strategically significant than the South Caucasus. 

Overall, Russia has begun to reconcile with the trend of shrinking spheres of influence. It is likely, Russia will not be capable of launching a "special military operation" against Western influence in the South Caucasus, especially since it has not yet digested the Ukrainian “adventure”. 

Robert Ananyan is a journalist based in Yerevan, Armenia, who focuses on the political and security problems of the South Caucasus.