Donald Trump’s return to the White House, heralded by last week's inaugural address and subsequent executive orders, has sent shockwaves across the world and Latin America, particularly in Mexico and Panama. From economic to full-on militaristic threats, the new administration’s agenda reflects an unrelenting neo-colonialist vision. Latin America finds itself in Trump’s imperialistic crosshairs, with little evidence that the region is prepared to face the challenges ahead.

From Loud Threats to the Denial of Diplomacy

Rather than using private conversations and diplomatic channels, Trump has opted for public declarations, a move that underscores his bullyish approach to international relations. By airing these claims so brazenly, Trump seeks to impose himself on the global stage, projecting an image of power and control while dismissing the nuances of diplomacy.

This public posturing is no accident – it is a calculated tactic to intimidate and dominate, leaving little room for dialogue or dissent. Trump’s style reflects a fundamental disdain for diplomacy, which he perceives as weak, slow, and contrary to his transactional, deal-making persona as a businessman. Diplomacy requires patience, mutual respect, and an understanding of shared interests—qualities Trump seems to view as unnecessary or even counterproductive.

Instead, the newly inaugurated president favours unilateral action, prioritising quick wins and grand gestures over the careful building of trust and cooperation. This approach not only undermines the norms of international relations but also risks alienating allies, destabilising partnerships, such as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), former NAFTA, and the Torrijos-Carter Treaties on Panama, signed in 1977 and handover effective on December 31, 1999, and eroding the principles of sovereign nations that have governed international relations since 1648 with the Treaties of Westphalia and sustained seeking for peace and collaboration for centuries.

His claims and how they are pursued reveal a dangerous shift towards an era where brute force and self-interest overshadow reasoned dialogue and mutual respect – in sum, diplomacy.

A War on the Border

Classifying Mexican drug cartels as international terrorist groups is more than a rhetorical shift; it opens the door to unilateral military interventions in Mexico. Trump’s aggressive stance on border security, with threats of military action to curb undocumented immigration, marks a clear escalation from his first presidency, aggravated by the executive orders declaring a state of emergency at the US-Mexico border.

For Mexico, this is a double-edged sword: while the fight against cartels is a shared goal, Washington’s methods could infringe on Mexican sovereignty, worsening tensions between the two nations.

Renaming the Gulf and Seizing the Canal

Symbolic acts such as renaming the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America" highlight Trump’s disregard for historical and regional sensitivities. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum wryly suggested that instead of renaming the Gulf of Mexico (a name international and officially being used since 1607) to "Gulf of America," perhaps the United States should be renamed "América Mexicana," citing an 1814 document predating Mexico's constitution that used such a name for the region.

Beyond mere symbolism, his reaffirmed intention to seize the Panama Canal is a direct threat to the Central American country’s autonomy and a reminder of the region’s fraught history with US imperialism. For Panama and its neighbours, this raises urgent questions about their ability to resist such overreach.

Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino firmly rejected the idea of the country losing control of the canal: “As president, I want to express precisely that every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent zone belongs to Panama and will remain so. The sovereignty and independence of our country are not negotiable.”

Latin America’s Ability to Respond

The region’s ability to resist Trump’s imperialist ambitions is undermined by its long-standing political fragmentation and economic vulnerabilities. Key challenges include:

Lack of Unity: Latin America lacks a unified front to counter US aggression. Competing political and economic projects expose the region’s divisions and fragmented approach. Regional organisations like CELAC and the OAS have been weakened by internal disputes and clashing national interests.

Economic Dependence: Many Latin American economies are deeply tied to the U.S. market, leaving them vulnerable to Trump’s protectionist trade policies.

Institutional Weaknesses: Corruption, fragile democracies, and limited military capacity make it difficult for many nations to effectively resist external pressure.

Geopolitical Shifts: As the US reasserts its dominance, Latin America’s efforts to diversify alliances with China, Europe, and other global powers are likely to face heightened American scrutiny and interference. The European Union, feeling a similar "prey drama," has responded with a clear signal of solidarity. In her speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen specifically addressed Latin America – mentioning Mercosur, Mexico, and even Canada – emphasising that the EU is open for business and eager to strengthen its partnerships.

A Path Forward

Trump’s “America First” strategy places Latin America in a precarious position. His focus on unilateral economic deals suggests the region’s role will be reduced to serving US interests. Whether through trade, resource extraction, or geopolitical manoeuvres, Trump’s policies leave little room for equitable partnerships.

Even nations and regions with a more established presence on the international stage than Latin America – such as Canada, Denmark (with Greenland), and EU member states – are feeling the weight of "America First" heavy hand.

By framing regional issues such as drug trafficking, migration, and trade imbalances as threats to US security, the tycoon-turned-president justifies aggressive policies that prioritise American interests. This "trap" leaves Latin America reactive rather than proactive, struggling to navigate a landscape where its sovereignty and development are increasingly compromised.

If the region is to counter Trump’s ambitions, it must act decisively on the following areas:

Regional Integration: Strengthening alliances through regional bodies can amplify collective bargaining power. I would put emphasis on the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), as well as Mercosur, Caricom, and restore Unasur, including the Initiative for the Integration of South American Regional Infrastructure (IRRSA).

Diversified Alliances: Deepening ties with other global powers, such as China and the whole Asia and Africa, and the European Union, can provide alternatives to US dominance.

Focus on Resilience: Investing in economic independence and addressing internal governance issues will reduce vulnerabilities.

Public Diplomacy: Mobilising global public opinion against US overreach could generate pressure on Washington to reconsider its intentions regarding the potential takeover of the Panama Canal or any possible military interference in Mexico, Panama, or other countries.

Trump 2.0 represents a daunting challenge, but also an opportunity, for Latin America’s sovereignty and stability. Whether the region is up to the task depends on its ability to forge unity, assert its independence, and adapt to a new era of unrestrained American power.