Top politicians from the Western Balkans confronted the question of when countries from the region can realistically hope to join the European Union at the Globsec forum in Prague this weekend. 

There are fears that the protracted accession process – albeit speeded up somewhat since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – will lead local populations to become increasingly disillusioned with the EU, and create room for Russia and other parties to expand their influence in the region. 

In contrast to fellow politicians from the region, Montenegro’s President Jakov Milatovic was highly optimistic about his country’s accession prospects. He pointed out that Montenegro is in the final phase of its EU accession process and could become the 28th member state by 2028. Although ambitious, he argued that this goal is realistic, citing Montenegro’s long-standing use of the euro, its Nato membership since 2017, and its alignment with EU foreign and security policy. 

Milatovic expressed hope that Montenegro’s progress could serve as a catalyst for the entire Western Balkans region, stressing that regional cooperation and economic integration are key to securing the region’s future within the EU.

Still, even Milatovic acknowledged the slow accession progress – no country has joined the EU since Croatia in 2013 – saying that what “we thought would be a 400m race ended up being a marathon with hurdles.” 

Speaking on the same panel as Milatovic, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic was more sceptical, suggesting that no new EU members (even Montenegro) would be admitted before 2030. Vucic acknowledged the desire of all Western Balkan countries to join the EU but warned that enlargement fatigue within the EU itself, compounded by the acceleration of Ukraine and Moldova’s accession, could slow the region’s progress even further. 

"Everyone sees opportunities, a revival of the process, but I don't believe it. I wish all the best to Montenegro, but I do not believe that it will be part of the EU in 2028, and I do not believe that we will be a member in 2028, Vucic said. 

"We all want to be part of the EU, but we are not sure what the situation will look like in the member countries. "Ukraine and Moldova are gaining momentum, which is understandable, but at the same time there is public exhaustion within the EU regarding enlargement,” the Serbian president added. 

North Macedonia’s President Stevo Pendarovski echoed these concerns, noting that his country, once seen as a frontrunner for EU membership alongside Croatia, has fallen far behind. It is now 19 years since the country secured candidate status, but its progress has been blocked by bilateral disputes with its neighbours, first Greece and later Bulgaria. 

Pendarovski pointed to the EU's lack of commitment as a significant factor in the region's stagnation. Over the last 11-12 years, no country from the Western Balkans has made significant progress toward EU accession, and this has caused public enthusiasm for the EU to plummet, he argued. 

In North Macedonia, for example, less than 50% of the population now supports EU membership – a shockingly low number for a historically pro-European country.

By contrast, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama told a panel that Albanians “are European, we are stubbornly in love with Europe” – a sentiment that is backed up by surveys showing Albanians are along the most enthusiastic in the region about joining the bloc. However, he warned that “the Western Balkans should not be taken for granted”. 

With enthusiasm for enlargement faltering both in the EU and in parts of the Western Balkans, former Croatian president Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic warned of the potential for a dangerous political vacuum to emerge. The lack of momentum threatens to destabilise the region and open it up to foreign influence, particularly from Russia.

Grabar-Kitarovic compared her country’s sometimes slow and frustrating path toward EU membership – Croatia joined in 2013 – to the experience of the aspiring members from the Western Balkans today. She noted that Croatia’s stalling progress on reforms impacted public support for EU accession, with similar trends visible today in neighbouring countries. She said that "enlargement fatigue" is nothing new, but the current situation is even more concerning. 

As the process of EU accession stalls, political vacuums are emerging in the Western Balkans, which are being filled by third-party actors – particularly Russia. Grabar-Kitarovic warned that Russia’s interest in the region could be seen as an attempt to open another geopolitical front, diverting attention from the war in Ukraine. She stressed that enlargement fatigue must be tackled through better public diplomacy to showcase the benefits of EU membership for both the candidate countries and the Union itself.

Rama argued that “the biggest promoter of expansion over the past two years … wasn’t [French President] Emanuel [Macron], it was [Russian President] Vladimir [Putin] and this is the tragic optimism unfortunately because Europe needed Vladimir to attack Ukraine so that it no longer takes for granted that the Western Balkans is there”. 

While pointing out that Albania has historically had less contact with Russia than any other country in Europe, he warned: “The region is a space where Russia has a lot of influence and before it's too late, we need to do some things differently”. He welcomed steps from the EU’s side, specifically the New Growth Plan to support integration of aspiring members with the bloc’s economy. 

Montenegro's former president Milo Djukanovic voiced similar concerns, highlighting the negative effects of the protracted accession process. He argued that the delay has resulted in public disillusionment, with many questioning whether EU membership is still a feasible goal. Đukanović remarked that in Montenegro, and throughout the Western Balkans, there remains a sharp divide between the vision of a multi-ethnic democracy and the lingering pull of Balkan nationalism.

Djukanovic also pointed out that the West’s historical mistakes in dealing with the Western Balkans have created space for the resurgence of retrograde political ideas, such as the desire for ethnically homogeneous states. He further warned that Russian influence in the region seeks to exploit these divisions, undermining stability and threatening to push the region back into turmoil.

The contrasting perspectives at Globsec highlighted the region's deep frustration with the EU enlargement process. Enlargement fatigue threatens not only the prospect of EU integration but also the stability and security of the Western Balkans as a whole. as pointed out by several politicians at Globsec, Without renewed commitment from both the EU and the Western Balkans, the region risks becoming increasingly vulnerable to external influence and internal instability.