The leaders of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia have solidified an alliance formed amid strained relations with Ethiopia, following a summit in the Eritrean capital on Thursday (October 10).

Presidents Isaias Afwerki (Eritrea) Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (Egypt) and Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (Somalia) discussed deepening cooperation across various sectors, particularly in security, as the Horn of Africa faces heightened instability, in part owing to landlocked Ethiopia's efforts to gain access to a seaport.

“This is an axis against [Ethiopian capital] Addis Ababa,” Hassan Khannenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies, told the BBC’s Focus on Africa programme. “I think it’s an attempt to bring the hate together in trying to increase pressure against Addis Ababa.

The three-way summit, the first of its kind for these countries, did not mention Ethiopia directly mentioned in the final statements but remains at the centre of many regional disputes. According to a joint statement the Eritrean Information Ministry released, the leaders reaffirmed their commitment to safeguarding unequivocal sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity” of the countries involved.

They also reaffirmed “the need to adhere to the fundamental principles of international law, which are indispensable for regional stability and cooperation,” reported Ahram Online.

Security and cooperation

One of the primary outcomes of the meeting was the formation of a trilateral committee comprising the foreign ministers of Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia. This committee will focus on enhancing strategic cooperation, particularly in areas like security and development. The leaders also agreed on bolstering efforts to stabilise Somalia, which has been grappling with internal threats, including from the al-Shabab militant group, added Ahram Online.

President al-Sisi reiterated Egypt's commitment to supporting Somalia’s federal government, both through peacekeeping missions and military aid. The Egyptian military has recently ramped up its assistance to Somalia, delivering significant consignments of arms and equipment, including a shipment via ship in September, after two Egyptian military planes provided aid in August.

This growing support comes as Somalia continues its long battle against al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked group that has destabilised much of the country.

Tensions with Ethiopia

The trilateral summit comes at a delicate time for regional diplomacy, with Ethiopia's relationships with all three nations under strain. Ethiopia’s preliminary agreement earlier this year with the self-declared republic of Somaliland to lease a portion of its coastline has particularly angered Somalia, which does not recognise Somaliland as an independent state.

Egypt has also been at odds with Ethiopia over its southern neighbour's $5bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, which Cairo views as a threat to its Nile water supply.

According to Al Jazeera, the security pact discussed during the summit could unsettle Ethiopia, given the presence of thousands of Ethiopian troops in Somalia, ostensibly to fight al-Shabab. The deepening ties between Eritrea, Egypt, and Somalia may further complicate the already fraught relations, particularly with Addis Ababa.

Somalia's Information Minister Daud Aweis denied that the summit was hostile to Ethiopia.

"We are not determined to instigate anything against Addis Ababa," he told the BBC's Focus on Africa programme. "Addis Ababa is our neighbour; we have been cooperating together for a long time, although later on their leadership came up with a factor of instability in the region. But still, we stand for peace, and we don’t think that such a meeting in Asmara has anything to do with Ethiopia.".

Regional stability, and Red Sea security

The leaders also discussed the broader security situation in the Horn of Africa, particularly the crisis in Sudan and its potential spillover effects, including influxes of refugees fleeing fighting between rival generals.

Sudan's internal conflict has already displaced hundreds of thousands and threatens to destabilise neighbouring countries. The summit reached a consensus on coordinating efforts to address such crises while ensuring security along the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital maritime corridor connecting the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean.

Eritrea's President Afwerki, in particular, emphasised the need for joint efforts to ensure the stability of the Red Sea region, which continues to be increasingly crucial due to its geopolitical significance and rich natural resources.

Historical context, future prospects

This historic trilateral meeting comes after years of fluctuating relationships between these Horn of Africa nations. Ethiopia and Eritrea had previously signed a peace agreement in 2018, ending decades of hostilities that followed a brutal border war. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed even won a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for this effort.

However, relations soured again after the civil war in Ethiopia's Tigray region. Eritrea was initially an ally of the Ethiopian government but later grew lukewarm toward the accord that ended the fighting in late 2022.

Egyptian President al-Sisi’s first visit to Asmara reflects his country’s growing interest in solidifying ties in the Horn of Africa, particularly in light of the ongoing GERD dispute with Ethiopia. Afwerki has visited Egypt several times in recent years, most recently in February 2024, when the two countries discussed threats facing the region. According to BBC, these summits are seen as part of a broader attempt by Egypt and Eritrea to counterbalance Ethiopia’s growing influence, particularly over key waterways and trade routes.

A power shift?

While the leaders of Somalia, Eritrea, and Egypt denied any intentions to escalate tensions with Ethiopia, the formation of this alliance will likely be viewed with concern in Addis Ababa. As the Horn of Africa continues to experience political, economic, and security challenges, the outcomes of this summit will be closely watched by regional powers and the international community alike.

The Eritrea-Egypt-Somalia summit marks a significant development in regional diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. With security at the forefront of discussions, these three nations have pledged to enhance cooperation and provide support to stabilise Somalia. However, the underlying tensions with Ethiopia suggest that this newfound alliance will reshape the region's balance of power, especially as issues like the GERD and territorial integrity remain contentious.