Bulgaria is moving closer to a new early general election after President Rumen Radev decided on August 26 that the third and final mandate to form a government should be given to the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP), leaving the country in the deepest political crisis for decades.

As the BSP is almost certain to fail, the next step would be for Bulgaria to hold a general election — the third this year. While the first two votes, in April and July, produced broadly similar results, the latest poll shows a significant change in voters’ preferences, including a collapse in support for There Are Such People (ITN), which was first placed in the July vote. 

In a final attempt to head off another snap election, Radev announced that he will give the third mandate to BSP on August 27. But the party has little chance of success as neither ITN, nor the reformist Democratic Bulgaria are willing to participate in a coalition with the Socialists. Meanwhile, the BSP has announced it would not seek support from either Gerb and or the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) — leaving it with only the smallest party in parliament, Stand up.BG! We Are Coming! (ISBG), as a potential partner. 

Despite the slim chance of success, BSP leader Kornelia Ninova announced that her party will invite ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISBG to talks on a potential coalition.

“We shall not pose preliminary conditions, we shall not provide preliminary nominations for prime minister and ministers. We shall seek consensus on these topics,” Ninova said.

Political analysts see the chances of this mandate succeeding as lower than one percent. The country is expected to hold another snap vote in the autumn, most likely together with the regular presidential election in November.

Meanwhile, a poll by Market Links showed that former prime minister Boyko Borissov’s Gerb party, which ruled the country for a decade before losing power in April, is now first placed among voters. Borissov’s party emerged as the winner from the deepening political crisis in Bulgaria, which worsened after ITN refused to enter in coalition with the other anti-establishment parties in parliament.

According to the poll, released on August 26, Gerb is back in first place with 21.6% of voters willing to back it. This figure is almost unchanged compared to Gerb’s result in the July 11 snap vote, but support for ITN has collapsed. ITN now ranks third after Democratic Bulgaria. 16.5% of voters would back Democratic Bulgaria versus just 15.7% for ITN, tied with the BSP. 

They are followed by the DPS with 11%, ISBG with 4.5% and the far-right Vazrazhdane party on 4.3%.

“Within just a month we are witnessing significant reshuffle in the electoral support for the political forces, which could lead to a new, even more fragmented configuration of seven parties,” Market Links noted.

“A huge collapse for Slavi Trifonov and his party [ITN]. The arrogant behaviour of ITN, the refusal of normal political communication, as well as the lack of clarity what exactly do they want and how do they imagine our common future explicably lead to this collapse. They have exactly one chance to fix things. May they learn the lesson. Otherwise, that reserve of trust they had will be exhausted completely,” prominent PR expert Lubomir Alamanov commented on Facebook.

He added that the improvement of Democratic Bulgaria’s result is expected as the formation has remained consistent in its messages and showed it has vision on what it wants to achieve.

However, Market Links noted that, according to the poll, the three anti-establishment parties – ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISBG – are considered to be equally responsible for the political crisis.

ITN won the July 11 snap vote, but got only 65 MPs out of 240, closely followed by Gerb with 63 MPs. Although the party was widely expected to enter in coalition with Democratic Bulgaria and ISBG and to seek support from the BSP, ITN’s leader said that no coalition agreements would be signed with anyone. The party’s arrogant style of communication cost it the chance to form a government after receiving the first mandate from Radev.

According to 40% of respondents, all anti-establishment parties are responsible for the failure to form a government with the first mandate, while 25% believe that ITN was to blame and 15% blamed Democratic Bulgaria and ISBG.

The parliament has also lost trust among voters due to the inability of political parties to form a stable majority, falling by 10 points to just 13%.

On the other hand, the caretaker government of Prime Minister Stefan Yanev improved its rating to 54%.