More than half of the world’s food production is at risk of failure within the next 25 years as a rapidly worsening water crisis threatens global agricultural systems, according to a new report from the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, the Guardian reported on October 17.

Experts have warned that without urgent action to conserve water and protect the ecosystems that sustain freshwater supplies, the impact on food security will be catastrophic.

The Global Commission on the Economics of Water  laid out the problem in a comprehensive 194-page review, outlining the growing threat of water scarcity. Half of the world’s population already faces shortages and the number is set to rise as the climate crisis intensifies.

“Water is victim number one of the [climate crisis],” said Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a co-chair of the commission. He emphasised that the crisis is manifesting through “droughts and floods,” with water systems under “unprecedented stress.”

The report predicts that demand for freshwater will outstrip supply by 40% by the end of the decade. According to Rockström, every 1°C increase in global temperatures adds 7% more moisture to the atmosphere, exacerbating the hydrological cycle and leading to more severe weather events.

Scientists are increasingly focusing on the likely impact of climate change on global food security. As bne IntelliNews reported, crop yields are likely to rise temporarily in the Global North thanks to warmer temperatures extending the agricultural season and the “carbon fertilization” effect of higher concentrations of CO₂. However, yields will fall in the Global South where temperatures will become extreme and lead to more droughts.

The gradual warming of 1.3C to date above the pre-industry baseline has already led to a reduction in yields, and now scientists estimate that over abn people are already facing rising food insecurity as food production could fall by 20% in some countries a separate study found.

Underestimated water needs

The Global Commission also found that current estimates of human water requirements are vastly understated. While 50-100 litres per person per day are necessary for basic health and hygiene, the report revealed that people actually need around 4,000 litres a day to ensure adequate nutrition and a dignified life. This level of water use is unachievable locally for most regions, leaving countries dependent on trade in food, clothing, and consumer goods to meet their water needs.

Some countries benefit more than others from what is known as “green water,” the soil moisture crucial for food production. China and Russia, for example, benefit from their extensive rivers networks where air currents transport moisture across regions. India and Brazil, meanwhile, are major exporters of green water, supporting moisture flows to other regions through their ecosystems.

“The Chinese economy depends on sustainable forest management in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Baltic region,” said Rockström. “This interconnectedness shows we must treat fresh water as a global common good.”

Calls for radical water management

Tharman Shanmugaratnam, president of Singapore and co-chair of the commission, warned that nations must begin to cooperate on managing water resources before the situation becomes untenable. “We have to think radically about how we are going to preserve the sources of fresh water, how we are going to use it far more efficiently, and how we are going to ensure access to fresh water for every community,” he said as cited by The Guardian, stressing the need to preserve equity between rich and poor.

The report also called for the elimination of harmful subsidies, which are exacerbating the water crisis. More than $700bn of subsidies each year go to agriculture, encouraging wasteful water use. “Industry is getting a lot of the subsidy, and richer people,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the World Trade Organization and a co-chair of the commission. “We need better-targeted subsidies that ensure the poor benefit.”

The water crisis has a particularly severe impact on women and developing nations. Mariana Mazzucato, a co-chair of the commission and professor of economics at University College London, highlighted that women bear the brunt of the burden. “Most of the rapes and abuse of women actually happen when they’re going to fetch water,” said Mazzucato, citing Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr, the mayor of Freetown in Sierra Leone.

Mazzucato also advocated for international financial institutions to make water conservation a condition for loans to developing countries. “We must ensure that profits are reinvested in productive activity such as research and development around water issues,” she said.

The report concluded that without coordinated global action, the world faces a profound food and water crisis within the next quarter-century.