The TAPI pipeline project, upon completion, will span 1,814 kilometres, beginning at the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan, the world’s second-largest natural gas reserve. The pipeline will extend through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan, pass through Quetta and Multan in Pakistan, and terminate at Fazilka, India. It is designed to transport 33bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas annually, with 14 bcm allocated to both India and Pakistan and the remaining 5 bcm reserved for Afghanistan.

India’s stance towards the TAPI project has been lukewarm.

According to The Geopolitics, India’s “wait and watch” approach stems from its fragile relations with Pakistan. Diplomatic and trade ties between the two South Asian nations, both crucial endpoints for the pipeline, remain deeply fractured. New Delhi fears that Islamabad could leverage the pipeline’s passage through Pakistani territory to disrupt gas supplies during future conflicts. This geopolitical uncertainty remains a key obstacle to India’s active participation.

India is also concerned about the security of the pipeline in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Pakistan, the route traverses Balochistan, an area experiencing a notable rise in terrorist activities. While Afghanistan has pledged security for the project, the persistent presence of extremist groups in the region poses a significant threat to the pipeline's stability.

Moreover, fluctuating global energy prices and India’s growing domestic gas production have led the country to seek a renegotiation of the Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement (GSPA) signed by the four member countries in 2015, The Geopolitics said.

Prospects for India

India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer after the United States and China, is also the fourth-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The International Energy Agency’s India Energy Outlook 2021 projects that the nation’s gas demand will quadruple by 2040.

With limited domestic gas supplies, India currently imports about 50% of its natural gas. As part of its energy strategy, India aims to diversify its import sources and shift towards cleaner energy. The Geopolitics notes that the TAPI pipeline aligns with these goals by ensuring a reliable gas supply and supporting India’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. The pipeline would also reduce India’s reliance on maritime chokepoints, which are vulnerable to security threats, as demonstrated by recent crises in the Red Sea.

Despite these potential benefits, Indian experts are sceptical about the project’s feasibility.

New Delhi is actively pursuing alternatives, including increased LNG imports and a rapid expansion of renewable energy capacity. Recently, the India government announced its aim of achieving 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based capacity by 2030. Union Minister for New and Renewable Energy, Pralhad Joshi, stated on December 17 that India is not only undergoing an energy revolution but is also emerging as the renewable energy capital of the world. With each such similaer statement, the relevance of the TAPI pipeline shrinks.

As such, given India's aggressive focus on renewable energy coupled to its security risks and geopolitical challenges, the TAPI pipeline appears to hold little value to the world's most populous nation.