The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast the arrival of La Nina in Indonesia for August 2024, Kontan.co.id reported. This prediction is based on recent atmospheric dynamics analysis conducted by BMKG for the second ten-days of July.

In its latest report, BMKG indicated that the ENSO conditions are likely to trend towards La Nina by mid to late this year. As a result, La Nina, which brings increased rainfall to Indonesia, is expected to impact mining sector performance, including coal mining services.

ABM Investama (ABMM) Director, Hans Christian Manoe, acknowledged that rainfall this year has been significantly higher, especially in Sumatra and South Kalimantan. He noted that this could affect overburden products, which are layers of rock or soil covering coal.

"This somewhat affects overburden (OB) production, which is currently slightly below target. However, we will strive to make up for the shortfall in OB production to reach an annual range of 270-285mn bank cubic metres (bcm). This is a natural phenomenon beyond the company's control," he said.

Manoe added that the company is proactively ensuring that operational aspects within its control are optimised, such as mining operations and end-to-end processes, while managing fixed costs and prioritising safety. This approach aims to minimise disruptions caused by factors beyond the company's control.

PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) mentioned that as of August 2024, it is still assessing whether any mining sites have experienced above-normal rainfall. "So far, production has been proceeding as planned and without issues," said Corporate Secretary of United Tractors, Sara K. Loebis.

In the mining contracting business, UNTR’s subsidiary, Pamapersada Nusantara (Pama), aims for an overburden removal volume of 1.2bn bcm, a target similar to last year’s. Total production by Pama at client sites reached 70mn tonnes by June 2024, in line with the year-end target of around 138mn tonnes.

Sara added that UNTR, through Pama, manages mine designs to minimise flooding and maintains mining roads to prevent slipperiness or ensure quick drying after rain.

Coal mining company PT Samindo Resources Tbk (MYOH), owned by Low Tuck Kwong, also reported stable rainfall at its managed sites. MYOH's Corporate Secretary, Ahmad Zaki Natsir, stated that production and overburden targets are set by clients and that this year's targets are slightly lower than last year’s. 

To mitigate La Nina’s impact, Ahmad said the company will enhance heavy equipment readiness through maintenance, ensuring that equipment operates optimally during dry periods. 

The Indonesian Mining Services Association (Aspindo) noted that the weather leading up to the rainy season with high intensity could affect production. Bambang Tjahjono, Executive Director of Aspindo, mentioned that most coal mines operated by its members are in East Kalimantan (Kaltim), South Kalimantan (Kalsel), North Kalimantan (Kaltara), Central Kalimantan (Kalteng), and South Sumatra (Sumsel).