Shigeru Ishiba has surged ahead as the most popular choice among the Japanese public for the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) presidential election, according to a recent Asahi Shimbun survey conducted on September 14 and 15. The poll, which received 1,070 valid responses, reveals that 26% of respondents view Ishiba, a former LDP secretary-general, as the most suitable candidate to succeed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

This new data positions Ishiba well above his competitors, with Shinjiro Koizumi, another prominent LDP figure, trailing at 21%. Sanae Takaichi, a current contender, secured third place with 11%. The remaining candidates, including Yoko Kamikawa and Taro Kono, garnered significantly less support, each obtaining just 4%.

The upcoming LDP presidential election, scheduled for September 27, will determine the party leader who is expected to become the next prime minister. The decision will primarily be made by LDP lawmakers and rank-and-file members, although public opinion appears to heavily favour Ishiba.

Notably, the latest survey indicates a shift in preferences among LDP supporters compared to August’s results. Ishiba's support among LDP supporters has risen to 32%, overtaking Koizumi, who now stands at 24%. In the previous survey, Koizumi had led with 28%, while Ishiba was at 23%.

In addition to the LDP race, the survey also touched upon the broader political landscape, revealing significant discontent with the LDP's recent decisions. Seventy-six% of respondents expressed scepticism about the party's endorsement of lawmakers implicated in a political fund scandal, highlighting a potential area of vulnerability for the LDP.

Meanwhile, the opposition's presidential race is also shaping up. Among potential leaders for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda emerged as the preferred choice for 29% of respondents. Yukio Edano, a former CDP president, followed with 15%. Noda's popularity among CDP supporters is notably high, with 56% favouring him over Edano.

The survey further sheds light on party support, with 37% of respondents indicating a preference for the LDP in the proportional representation system, marking the highest level of support for the party since May 2023. In contrast, support for the CDP remained steady at 16%, and Nippon Ishin saw a slight decline to 9%.

As Japan’s political landscape continues to evolve, the upcoming LDP election could significantly impact the country's future direction, underscoring the importance of public sentiment in shaping political outcomes.