Pashinyan says Armenia is already out of CSTO
CSTO states express serious concern over terrorist threat in Afghanistan
Armenia refuses to host Eurasian Economic Union summit
COMMENT: Trump 2.0 could be a blessing for Belarus
Is Russia being dragged back into the Syrian war?
Hungary asks for exemption from US sanctions for Russia's Gazprombank
ISTANBUL BLOG: Has Turkey “re-conquered” Aleppo?
KYIV BLOG: It’s time to drop the charade that Ukraine can join Nato
MOSCOW BLOG: Three of US’ key regional allies are in turmoil
Putin juggles a “friendly” state visit to Kazakhstan with chilling missile threats for Ukraine
Poor market conditions start to put Emerging Europe IPOs on hold
Gas prices rising as EU storage tanks empty faster than usual
Tusk calls for unity against Russia, proposes Baltic Sea policing mission
EBRD warns of risks for emerging markets pursuing industrial policies
Czechia to open oil reserves after Russia halts Druzhba pipeline flows
Emerging Europe winemakers sparkle as global wine production declines
Czech PMI drops to 46 in November
European resistance clouds EU-Mercosur deal prospects at Montevideo summit
Polish energy stocks tank over fears government will ditch coal takeover strategy
UN plastic pollution talks collapse as volume of waste escalates
Slovak coalition wobbles but will it fall down?
Slovak parliament approves state budget for 2025
COMMENT: The EU’s Internal Security Framework is unfit for Cold War 2.0
Albanian police use tear gas to disperse anti-government protesters
Albania considers TikTok, Snapchat ban after fatal school stabbing
Watchdog warns Western Balkan banks are conduits for money laundering
Serbia faces backlash over controversial foreign agents bill
PPF mulling bid for United Group's telecom assets in Southeastern Europe
Bulgaria’s full Schengen accession to bring in an annual €833mn
Bulgaria loses out on EU funding after political instability stalls reforms
Croatian government faces no-confidence vote over healthcare scandal
Eight arrested over terrorist attack on water canal in Kosovo
Explosion on Zubin Potok canal escalates tensions between Kosovo and Serbia
Kosovo takes first steps towards establishing defence industry
Gazprom reportedly conditions gas supplies to Moldova on $708mn claim
UAE arrests three Uzbeks in Rabbi Kogan murder
Montenegro probes suspected plot to assassinate President Milatovic
Political tensions rise in North Macedonia after unrest on Albanian Flag Day
North Macedonia gets new eco-bus fleet as fuel crisis causes transport chaos in capital
Fuel crisis causes chaos for Skopje public transport
Romanian authorities reveal over €50mn funding for pro-Russian presidential candidate Georgescu
Political uncertainty hits Romanian listed companies
Serbs support EU membership but remain emotionally wedded to Russia
Serbia's industrial production posts double-digit growth in October
203 Turkish university programmes accept candidates with negative central exam scores
Garanti concludes autumn season for Turkish banks’ syndicated loan renewals
INTERVIEW: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank financing Central Asia’s green future
Award seen as Nobel Prize for human rights won by Kabul women’s rights activist and jailed Tajik lawyer
PANNIER: Central Asia faces tough race against clock to prevent water crisis
Corruption probe launched into Armenian satellite project
Azerbaijani diplomat detained with 70kg of gold in Turkey
Azerbaijani and Iranian forces begin joint border exercises
COP29 ends in failure
Georgians challenge ruling party crackdown in seventh night of protests
Brit arrested in Tbilisi protests now in police custody in Senaki
Georgian opposition leader assaulted and detained in Tbilisi
Growth returned to Kazakhstan service sector in November, PMI shows
Kazakh manufacturing sector sees sharp improvement in November, PMI data shows
Decades-old Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan border dispute could be over
Kyrgyzstan: MPs seem willing to give police a free hand
Hit indirectly by sanctions, Mongolia struggles to find workarounds
HESS: Mongolia’s unique success story between rock and a hard place at risk
Mongolia copper-gold discovery hailed for “globally significant” prospects
PANNIER: Grievous blow for the Pamiris as Tajikistan ends cooperation with the Aga Khan
COP29: Central Asian states losing arable land
Iranian officials in uproar over police beatings of students in Russia
Alisher Usmanov’s wealth shrinks by $7.29bn on falling markets
Russia's budget oil breakeven price world’s second lowest as oil revenues recover
Southeast European countries look to Algeria to diversify energy supplies
Slovenia turns back to Algerian gas after flirtation with Russian supplies
“Silent demise” of world’s vast rangelands threatens food supply of billions, warns UNCCD report
The hurricane season in 2024 was weird
Global warming will increase crop yields in Global North, but reduce them in Global South
Hundreds of millions on verge of starvation, billions more undernourished as Climate Crisis droughts take their toll
Kamikaze marketing: how the natural diamond industry could have reacted to the lab-grown threat
Global access to energy starts to fall for the first time in a decade, says IEA
Saudi Arabia hosts kingdom's first Africa summit, to boost ties, promote stability
Putin at 2023 Africa-Russia summit: Wiping debts, donating grain and boosting co-operation
EBRD 2023: Bank to expand into the whole of Africa plus Iraq
Botswana throws the diamond industry a lifeline
Nelson Mandela worried about natural diamonds, Leonardo di Caprio defended them, makers of lab-grown stones demonise them
Botswana’s 2,492-carat diamond discovery is golden opportunity to replicate legendary Jonker diamond's global legacy
Russia’s Rosatom to support nuclear projects across Africa at AEW2024
JPMorgan, Chase and HSBC reportedly unwittingly processed payments for Wagner warlord Prigozhin
Burkina Faso the latest African country to enter nuclear power plant construction talks with Russia
IMF: China’s slowdown will hit sub-Saharan growth
Moscow unlikely to give up Niger toehold as threat of ECOWAS military action looms
Overcoming insecurity to unlock the Central African Republic’s mineral riches
Russia funding war in Ukraine via illegal gold mining in Africa – WGC report
Rain, rain go away
Africa, Asia most people living in extreme poverty
10 African countries to experience world’s fastest population growth to 2100
EM winners and losers from the global green transformation
Russia blocks UN Security Council resolution on Sudan humanitarian crisis
G20 summit wraps up with a joint statement strong on sentiment, but short on specifics
Malaysia seeks BRICS membership
SDS storms fed by sand and dust equal in weight to 350 Great Pyramids of Giza, says UNCCD
Southern Africa has 'enormous' potential for green hydrogen production, study finds
Kazakhstan has no plans to join BRICS, says Astana
Sri Lanka to apply for BRICS membership
How France is losing Africa
Gabon coup attempt after the re-election of President Ali Bongo
Guinea grants final approvals to Rio Tinto for $11.6bn Simandou iron-ore project
The West is bleeding the Global South of wealth thanks to massive wage inequality, says study
Kenya’s untapped mineral wealth holds the promise of economic transformation
US adds 17 Liberian-flagged bulk carriers and oil tankers to Russian sanctions-busting blacklist
Panama and Liberia vying for largest maritime registry
Libya’s mineral riches: unlocking a future beyond oil
EBRD announces profit of €2.1bn in 2023
Where water stress will be highest by 2050
Ukraine claims it was behind massacre of Wagner Group mercenaries in Mali
Can Morocco's phosphate wealth put it at the centre of the global battery supply chain?
Hajj aftermath: deaths, disappearances and detentions spark investigations across world
Sri Lanka's LTL Holdings targets African power sector
Russia's nuclear diplomacy binding emerging markets to the Kremlin
Can Niger's military junta seize the country's uranium opportunity?
Disaster season: heat waves sweep the world – in charts and maps
AI will be a major source of GHGs by 2030, says Morgan Stanley
Niger and beyond: Francophone credit delivers coup de grâce
The world has passed peak per capital CO₂ emissions, but overall emissions are still rising
Trump threatens BRICS with tariffs if they dump the dollar
Global mean sea levels have increased by around 25cm since 1880
SITREP: Middle East rapidly destabilised by a week of missile strikes
Colombian mercenaries trapped in Sudan’s conflict
Air France diverts Red Sea flights after crew spots 'luminous object'
COMMENT: Tunisia on the brink of collapse
Tunisian President Kais Saied re-elected for second term
WHO declares "global public health emergency" owing to mpox outbreak in Central Africa, new virus strain
Climate crisis-driven global food security deteriorated between 2019 and 2022 and is even affecting the US
South Korea’s won slides as martial law crisis sparks market turmoil
Major bank’s service disruptions cause payment delays at fuel stations across Iran
Russia to mine Bitcoin in BRICS countries
China unveils $71bn swap facility to revitalise flagging economy
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway makes waves with $1.9bn yen bond sale
Uzbekistan joins Kyrgyzstan in committing to October start on China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway construction
US imposes preliminary duties on Southeast Asian solar imports
Southeast Asia’s rising energy demands and what lies ahead
Southeast Asia expands pumped hydro to boost energy storage
Pakistan could quit TAPI as India now “extremely lukewarm” on gas pipeline project, says report
Russia and India explore Arctic shipbuilding cooperation
PANNIER: The great mirage that is the TAPI gas pipeline
Trump vows to block Nippon Steel's $14bn bid for US Steel
China dismisses Trump's tariff threat, warns of 'no winners' in trade war
Indonesian analysts favour Kamala Harris’s economic policies as the US votes
Rising gold ETF inflows set to drive global bullion prices
Iraq blocks IMDb website over 'immoral content' claims
Display unveils groundbreaking 50% stretchable screen: a game-changer for fashion and mobility
South Korean users flock to YouTube and Instagram as local platforms struggle
Kazakhstan’s big league fintech Kaspi acquires 65% of Turkish Nasdaq peer Hepsiburada for $1.1bn
Bahrain and Iran to begin talks on normalising relations
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait set to offer Russians visa-free entry
Jaw-dropping discovery: 450,000-year-old tooth unearthed in Iran
China's COMAC eyes Saudi Arabia as launchpad for international expansion
Military training aircraft crashes in southern Iran, killing two pilots
Iranian president meets with Chinese officials in Tehran
Iraqi militias send hundreds of fighters to support Assad in Syria
Who are the Syrian rebels leading the uprising?
Iraqi factions in Syria’s Aleppo to counter anti-government forces
Iraq blocks 4chan in latest internet crackdown
Iranian ambassador denies coup rumours in Damascus
Israel, Lebanon in disarray over reports of ceasefire failure
TEHRAN BLOG: Why a Trump win may not be good for Israel
Global flights in disarray following Iranian missile strike on Israel
Saudi Arabia urges citizens to leave Lebanon immediately
Kuwait greenlights tax deal with Iraq to prevent double taxation
Iran demands 'equal footing' with Kuwaiti and Saudi plans to drill for gas in Gulf
Middle East power grid struggles as demand hits record high
Iraq braces for severe heatwave with temperatures to reach 49C
Hezbollah-linked financial institution reopens in Lebanon
BEIRUT BLOG: Ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect amid mixed emotions
So you want to get on the right side of Donald Trump? Try gift-wrapping a hotel
ANALYSIS: Regional escalation on the table following Israeli strike on Iran
Sea of Oman oil terminal boosts export resilience amid tensions with Israel
Trump’s defence pick asked, “Why is Islamist Turkey a member of Nato?”
Claims Hamas moving HQ to Turkey spark call from US lawmakers for classified briefing
Dubai ranks 13th in world's best cities index
Qatar says Hamas office remains open in Doha
Saudi Arabia launches UN desertification talks with $150mn pledge
Arab League backs Iraq's request for emergency meeting over Israeli threats
Assad's son defends his PhD thesis at Moscow State University
Who is Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the leader of Syria's latest insurgency?
UAE confirms death of missing Moldovan-Israeli rabbi as Israel suspects murder
Israel launches biggest strike in Yemen, killing 40 people
TEHRAN BLOG: Pezeshkian's dilemma over Haniyeh's assassination
Iranian foreign ministry condemns Haniyeh's assassination in Tehran
Reactions to the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran
ChatGPT enters Buenos Aires courts in legal tech push
French President Macron leads opposition to EU-Mercosur deal as hopes for G20 breakthrough fade
Latin America trapped in low growth cycle, ECLAC warns
Hurricane Beryl wreaks havoc in the Caribbean, leaves 10 dead as it heads for Mexico
Hurricane Beryl strengthens to Category 5, headed to Jamaica
Tropical storm Beryl intensifies to an “extremely dangerous” category 4 hurricane in an extreme weather first
Bolivia signs $1bn deal with China’s CBC for lithium development
What would a Trump win mean for Latin America?
Russia and China’s grip tightens on Bolivia’s nuclear and lithium dreams
US election outcome may curb vital remittances to Latin America
LatAm faces two-speed recovery as Brazil outpaces Mexico in IMF outlook
Latin American dignitaries urge UN to suspend Russia over Ukraine war
Colombia seeks BRICS membership, deepens Russia ties during Moscow talks
Methane levels at 800,000-year high, accelerating the sixth extinction
US general calls for Marshall Plan in Latin America to counter China and Russia
Argentina's Milei sacks foreign minister after unexpected Cuba embargo vote
Russian surveillance network in Nicaragua raises alarm
Who has the most prisoners? – Statista
Will Venezuela’s Maduro go out with a bang or a whimper?
Mexico's Sheinbaum denies NYT claims of chemistry students lured into fentanyl production
Trump’s tariff plan: A bold move or a risky gamble?
Mexico devises strategy to shield exports from US tariffs under Trump
Mexico braces for Trump trade storm amid fresh tariff and border threats
Nicaragua unveils new canal route in bid to rival Panama
Peru mining reform fails to stem surge in illegal gold trade and violence
Peru's APEC summit exposes trade tug-of-war between Beijing and Washington
Peru's Chancay megaport heralds a new era for Latin America’s trade
Peru-China Belt and Road meeting paves way for future cooperation
Amazon faces “tipping point”, say researchers
Venezuela faces fresh US pressure as Washington recognises opposition leader as president-elect
Iran, Venezuela forge closer industrial ties as sanctions-hit allies meet in Caracas
Venezuelan minister denies political prisoners exist despite UN findings of 1,900 detained
Protests in Bangladesh escalate, demanding president leave office
Bangladesh tribunal issues arrest warrant against ousted PM Sheikh Hasina
World Bank says Bangladesh GDP growth to shrink in FY25
COMMENT: From Globalisation to “slowbalisation” as FDIs decline on trade and geopolitical woes
Lavrov presses the flesh at ASEAN summit as Kremlin seeks to deepen ties with Asia
Angkor Archaeological Park attracts nearly 700,000 foreign tourists in nine months
ThaiBev sets THB18bn for expansion, targets Southeast Asia growth
Philippines accuses Chinese coast guard of aggressive tactics in South China Sea
South Korean president declares martial law, cancels it, now faces impeachment
Russian exports of diamonds to Hong Kong up 18-fold in 5M24
Gazli Gas responds to reports on Uzbekistan project, refutes any suggestion sanctioned individuals are involved
Eruption at Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki in Indonesia kills 10
Japan donates $4.6mn for restoration of Lake Urmia
INTERVIEW: Black & Veatch well-positioned for growth through energy transition
Asia's rice markets to see a shakeup in 2025, with Thai exports predicted to slump
Nepal floods - death toll rises to 209
Kolkata hospital rape and murder case sparks international outcry, raises questions
South Asia hit by floods and landslides after heavy rainfall
Russian pivot to the Global South includes unscrupulous army recruiting practices
North Korean troops will enter combat in Ukraine soon, Pentagon says
Putin gifts over 70 animals to North Korean zoo after Pyongyang sends troops to Russian Army
Security personnel dead as Imran Khan’s supporters breach Islamabad lockdown
India’s Modi urges BRICS to unify stance on terrorism
Papua New Guinea tribal conflict leaves 30 dead amid gold mine dispute
From coal to clean: The green energy transition in SE Asia
Poll shows 73% of South Koreans support impeaching President Yoon over martial law fiasco
South Korea’s Yoon defends martial law decision amid growing political turmoil
South Korea’s opposition initiates impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk Yeol
South Korean Cabinet in mass resignation offer
Sri Lanka’s merchandise exports in October up 18.22%
Taiwan's DPP slams KMT over martial law allegations
Japan’s strategic stance in a Taiwan conflict
Trump or Harris - Taiwan faces "collateral damage" as US-China trade tensions escalate
Trump and Harris policies likely to have similar impact on Vietnam economy, analysts say
German Prosecutors Confirm Termination of Money Laundering Investigation Against Alisher Usmanov
Comments by President of the Russian Fertilizers Producers Association Andrey Guryev on bilateral meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin
PhosAgro/UNESCO/IUPAC green chemistry research grants awarded for the 8th time to world's best young scientists
PhosAgro Tops RAEX ESG Ranking
Download the pdf version
Try PRO
World leaders are meeting for a Nato summit and Ukraine is top of the agenda. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is calling for accelerated accession as the only way to strengthen Ukraine’s position ahead of ceasefire talks that are widely expected as soon President-elect Donald Trump takes over in January. But despite the rhetoric of Ukraine “irreversible” accession to the security alliance, Ukraine’s chances of being offered membership are virtually nil.
The new Secretary General Mark Rutte is in the front line but dodged the question when asked when will Ukraine join. Instead he said NATO members must focus “more on delivering weapons to Ukraine” or debating possible scenarios for peace with Russia.
"Ukraine doesn't need more ideas on what a peace process could look like," Rutte said, avoiding the question of Ukraine accession entirely.
There will be no immediate decision on Ukraine's Nato membership, Rutte told Deutsche Welle. Some members still insist that an invitation cannot be extended as long as Ukraine is at war with Russia, Rutte clarified.
Instead, the main line most Ukraine allies are taking is to pump more weapons into Ukraine so that it can better protect itself, ignoring the fact that the standard policy of supplying Ukraine has been “some, but not enough” weapons since the start of the war.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell admitted openly earlier this month that the EU has failed to provide Ukraine with everything it needs. The EU had allocated €122bn in aid to Ukraine since the start of the war including €45bn in military support. "But we have failed to provide Ukraine with sufficient resources to protect it from constant air attacks on its civilian and energy infrastructure," the diplomat noted.
Moreover, both Borrell and French President Emmanuel Macron have warned that the EU “might collapse” next year as Russia’s allies continue to flourish and undermine the Western pre-eminence in geopolitics, with Borrell specifically pointing to the number of Global South countries that flocked to the Russian-hosted BRICS summit in Kazakh in November that are building an active anti-Western bloc.
Nevertheless, the new chief of EU foreign policy chief, former Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, a Russia hawk, continues to take a hard and uncompromising line that is out of kilter with many in the EU.
Speaking at the Nato-Ukraine Council meeting in Washington a few months ago, she said that Ukraine and Nato are “closer together today than ever.”
"Yesterday, we took important decisions to bring Ukraine even closer to the alliance," the Estonian Kallas said. "Nato will take a leading role in coordinating security assistance and training for Ukraine. Allies also pledged long-term financial support for Ukraine. These are very clear, practical preparations for the country's accession to Nato. Ukraine's rightful place is in the alliance, and its pathway to membership is irreversible."
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who was recently re-elected and is an implacable Russian foe, has tightened her control over the European Commission executive and is increasingly at loggerheads with those in the EU that would prefer to see a compromise negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine.
Kallas is still talking about “helping Ukraine to victory” when it is increasingly obvious that Ukraine is about to lose the war. At every step the West has undersupplied Ukraine with sufficient, and sufficiently powerful weapons, for the last two and half years, as bne IntelliNews reported in January last year in a cover feature “running out of ammunition.” Last year former EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell promised the EU would provide Ukraine with 1mn artillery shells by March this year, but due to Eu members reluctance to sign off on long-term procurement contracts, the privately owned European arms manufactures were reluctant to make the investments to produce those shells. Borrell just announced those millions shells were ready – nine months late.
Likewise, Zelenskiy called on Nato to provide fresh ammo for air defence for 20 key Ukrainian energy installations at the December 4 meeting, but as part of the April’s new US military aid package, instead of sending Ukraine new Patriot air defence missiles from its extensive stockpile, Washington decided to order new missiles from manufacturers that will take at least nine months to make.
"To get there, it is crucial that more military aid will be pumped into Ukraine," the Rutte repeated at the Nato summit on December 3, while Zelenskiy complained only two weeks earlier that Ukraine has received only 10% of the supplies promised under the US $61bn aid package promised by the US congress on April 20. Facing this reality, Zelenskiy recently switched his rhetorical tack from “victory” to “resistance” nine months after US President Joe Biden switched his rhetorical tack from “as long as it takes” to “as long as we can” last Christmas.
Despite the rapidly deteriorating situation in the warzone, EU high officials are maintaining the upbeat “Ukraine can win” rhetoric and ignoring the realities on the ground.
Kallas suggested on December 1 in an interview that the allies were still considering sending Nato troops to Ukraine, as “noting can be ruled out.”
“The discussion has revolved around which countries might be willing to send soldiers to Ukraine. I believe we must maintain a certain degree of strategic ambiguity and avoid ruling anything out,” Kallas said. But she added that any decision would ultimately rest with Ukraine.
Another new rhetorical troupe that has emerged in recent weeks as the end of the war in Ukraine looms, is that a Russian victory could bolster China, Iran and North Korea in an illiberal axis in opposition to the West.
Nato accession will never happen
There are three practical problems to bringing Ukraine into the Nato alliance:
– It is fighting an active war and so in theory could trigger the Article five collective security clause the next day;
– All 33 members of Nato would have to approve the decision, giving Russia’s allies in the alliance like Hungary and Turkey a de facto veto; and
– Ukraine has already given up its Nato aspirations in March 2022 during the peace talks hosted in Brest, Belarus, promising to return to the neutrality enshrined in the constitution until 2014.
These problems have triggered a wide variety of solutions. In theory it is possible to admit part of Ukraine to Nato and leave the occupied parts out. That is what happened when West Germany was admitted to Nato following reunification. The borders that define the Nato security deal don’t necessarily have to be the same as the national borders. However, the danger with this option is that Kyiv chooses to attack Russian occupied territory from its “safe” Nato-covered territory and trigger a response against the “Nato-backed” territory.
Russia's allies in Nato could be bullied into agreeing, but Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in particularly has shown himself to be particularly immune to EU threats. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan even more so, who is not even a member of the EU.
Giving up on Nato and going back to Ukrainian neutrality is a much more workable alternative, as that is exactly what the Kremlin has been demanding all along since the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an eight-point list of demands in December 2021 that started with “iron-clad legal guarantees” that Ukraine would never join Nato.
The Ukrainian negotiators in the first month of the war suggested enshrining Ukraine’s neutrality in the constitution again, which is a legally binding commitment to never joining Nato. Given the Kremlin will never accept even Ukraine’s partial membership of Nato, a return to neutrality is the only viable option and would create the common ground for real talks to begin. Currently there is no common ground between the two.
Neutrality was also a core element of the Istanbul peace deal agreed in April 2022, and Putin has said repeatedly that any talks should begin by taking the framework of the Istanbul deal as a starting point, although he also added that any talks should take “realities on the ground” into account.
However, in what looks like a trial balloon, the Kremlin recently leaked comments that it is willing to compromise and give up some land in talks, after five top officials gave details to Reuters suggesting there is some wiggle room at least on the borders of the four regions Russia annexed last year.
EU divided on Ukraine support
Nato members themselves are deeply divided on Ukraine’s membership in Nato and how best to support Kyiv going forward. The Baltics and the UK, for example, are still calling for arms supplies to be surged to allow Ukraine to win the war. The pro-Putin supporters like Hungary and Austria want to go back to business as usual. And Germany is in the middle, pledging to continue to support Ukraine, but at the same time refusing to send it the powerful Taurus cruise missiles, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains implacably against Ukraine’s membership of Nato. The memories of what a Russian invasion feels like are still fresh in Germany’s collective memory.
Trump remains the wild card, and any number of plans have been bandied about in Washington since Trump won the presidential election, including flooding Ukraine with weapons if Putin won’t negotiate to cutting Kyiv off entirely if Zelenskiy won’t negotiate. Amongst the more workable plans is to write off the 20% of Ukraine occupied by Russia and kick the territorial resolution issue down the road, leaving a demilitarised zone in place in the meantime – very similar to the 12-point Chinese peace plan Beijing suggested on the first anniversary of the start of the war.
Just this week an anonymous senior Nato official at the summit reportedly said the UK and France are considering various options to guarantee Ukraine's security if peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow are launched, which include sending troops to police the DMZ if the US/Chinese version of the plan is executed.
Bottom line is some sort of security deal will have to be agreed and this two was a central tenant of the Istanbul deal. There the Ukrainian negotiators suggested that in lieu of Nato membership, Ukraine sign a series of security deals with its Western partners, and not just the “security assurances” Ukraine has been offered so far that do not include promises to come to Ukraine’s military aid if Russia attacks again. The Istanbul deal failed as former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson reportedly told Zelenskiy that none of his Western allies were willing to offer Kyiv real security agreements that include military support in the event of an attack by Russia.
Time is running out
In the meantime, time is running out for Ukraine. Russia has reportedly been taking some of its heaviest losses on the Donbas front line since the war started and its economy is starting to come under growing pressure by the persistent high inflation and spirally cost of borrowing that will cause a sharp slowdown next year, according to a pessimistic medium-term macroeconomic outlook the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) released at the start of August.
But against that Russia has captured the most territory in Ukraine in a single week since 2022 as of November 27. Russia set a record for weekly advances, seizing almost 235 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, after the front line had remained largely static for nearly two years.
As bne IntelliNews reported, Ukraine has been running out of men, money and materiel since the summer, but all of those problems are getting rapidly worse. Morale is beginning to crumble amongst the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), with desertions up to 17% of the force, according to reports. Having ignored the problem of deserters until now, form January the government is going to start to prosecute deserters if they don’t return to their positions after the holidays. And the pressgangs roaming Ukraine’s streets, snatching young men to ship the front line, are undermining Zelenskiy popularity. A recent poll showed that Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's ambassador to the UK and former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, would easily beat Zelenskiy if presidential elections were held on Sunday.
Money is running out
Ukraine will run out of money soon as funding the war is becoming increasingly hard, according to Ukraine’s own Ministry of Finance’s forecasts.
In 2025, the Ukrainian government and the IMF expect to receive $13.7bn from the EU through the Ukraine Facility, $19.1bn under the ERA plan from the G7 and the EU, $3.1bn from the IBRD, $2.7bn from the IMF and $1bn from the UK. Together, these contributions from external donors should provide Ukraine's budget with $41bn – enough to cover the projected budget deficit in 2025.
However, international donor commitments for 2026 barely reach $21bn and starting from the second quarter of 2027, in the absence of new financial guarantees, Ukraine will face the problem of a colossal external financing deficit.
Germany has already halved its financial support for Ukraine this year from €8bn to €4bn as it faces its own budget crisis, and that support will fall further to €500mn in the following two years. France, which is facing a similar budget crisis, similarly cut its support for Ukraine this year to €3bn in October as it descends into its own political turmoil that is likely to see French President Emmanuel Macron’s government fall in the next weeks. Trump is expected to cut funding completely in 2025, despite about $3bn left over from a Biden executive order allocation this year and his request this week for an additional $24bn executive funding order to Congress that is unlikely to be approved.
Bankova has been banking on the G7 $50bn loan to Ukraine, approved on June 13 at a G7 summit in Italy. However, this too has been watered down and split into three tranches paid out over the next three years. The first tranche of $20bn was due before the end of this year, but it remains tangled up in wrangling and that payment is now not expected until the start of next year, according to the most recent reports. The government was recently forced to propose unpopular tax hikes to plug at least a $12bn hole in the budget. Chief amongst the changes is an increase in a special war take from 1% to 5% of income that goes into effect in 2025.
Register here to continue reading this article and 8 more for free or purchase 12 months full website access
Register to read the bne monthly magazine for free:
Already registered
Google Captcha Failed!
Password could contain only a-z0-9\+*?[^]$(){}=!<>|:-_ characters and have 8-20 symbols length.
Please complete your registration by confirming your email address.
A confirmation email has been sent to the email address you provided.
Forgotten password?
Email field can't be empty.
No user with this email address.
Access recovery request has expired, or you are using the wrong recovery token. Please, try again.
Access recover request has expired. Please, try again.
To continue viewing our content you need to complete the registration process.
Please look for an email that was sent to with the subject line "Confirmation bne IntelliNews access". This email will have instructions on how to complete registration process. Please check in your "Junk" folder in case this communication was misdirected in your email system.
If you have any questions please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
Sorry, but you have used all your free articles fro this month for bne IntelliNews. Subscribe to continue reading for only $119 per year.
Your subscription includes:
For the meantime we are also offering a free subscription to bne's digital weekly newspaper to subscribers to the online package.
Click here for more subscription options, including to the print version of our flagship monthly magazine:
More subscription options
Take a trial to our premium daily news service aimed at professional investors that covers the 30 countries of emerging Europe:
Get IntelliNews PRO
For any other enquiries about our products or corporate discounts please contact us at sales@intellinews.com
If you no longer wish to receive our emails, unsubscribe here.
Magazine annual electronic subscription
Website & Archive annual subscription