Trump is back. That is bad news for Zelenskiy but good news for Putin. It makes a ceasefire more likely as while Biden was dedicated to supporting Ukraine, Trump’s “America First” mantra means he is likely to disengage and retreat behind the walls of an American Tariff Fortress. The government in Germany has also just collapsed, weakening an already riven Europe further.

Congratulations poured into Donald Trump’s office from around the world after he was declared winner. But you know that few of these were sincere. Everyone is playing to his ego in the knowledge that if you didn’t big up his victory he can hold a grudge and that is not a good idea. Notably. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was one of the first and congratulated Trump on his “enormous victory.”

Smart move.

Bankova has obviously been thinking carefully about this scenario and Zelenskiy also went out of his way to play to Trump’s transactional nature and stressed what Ukraine can offer the US, rather than playing on any philosophical or moral themes like the West is in danger from Russia etc etc that has been the standard fare so far for the US or European consumption.

But Trumps return makes a quick peace a lot more likely in my opinion. The key difference between Biden and Trump is that Biden was committed to “as long as it takes” and mobilising the international community to bring Russia to its knees in an economic war. The overarching trait of Trump is disengagement with the rest of the world. Looking at his statements on the campaign trail and he clearly intends to build an “America First Fortress” withdrawing from multiple global organisations and surrounded by a very high tariff fence.

Not smart.

Will he end the war? He said that he would do it by the end of his inaugural day. Of course, this was all hyperbole and the consensus is he doesn’t actually have a plan.

"Anyone -- no matter how senior in Trump's circle -- who claims to have a different view or more detailed window into his plans on Ukraine simply doesn't know what he or she is talking about or doesn't understand that he makes his own calls on national-security issues, many times in the moment, particularly on an issue as central as this," a former Trump National Security Council aide said.

One idea proposed by Trump's transition office would involve Kyiv promising not to join Nato for at least 20 years in exchange for US continued military support to deter a future Russian attack, the Wall Street Journal reported citing sources.

That would essentially lock the frontline in place and both sides would agree to an 800-mile demilitarized zone – which is ironically pretty much the Chinese 12-point plan suggested on the first anniversary of the start of the war. Who would police that territory remains unclear, but one adviser said it wouldn’t be the Americans or the UN.

The other plan, suggested earlier this year by Trump advisors, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, is a crude threat to withhold weapons from Ukraine if it doesn’t agree to talks and to threaten Russian President Vladimir Putin with flooding Ukraine with weapons if he doesn’t agree to talks.

Putin calls - not

How is this the return of Trump seen from Russia? While official channels in Moscow have been cautious, the undertones of reactions suggest a blend of cautious optimism, restrained excitement, and a recognition of the unchanged realities of geopolitical tension.

Russian Putin did not officially congratulate Trump, which, as Dmitry Peskov noted, was unsurprising given that the US is an "unfriendly country."

Nevertheless, The Bell speculates that the Kremlin will welcome the change of guard. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, said that Trump's election opens up the possibilities for a “new reset.” Peskov echoed added that Trump's more "peaceful aspirations" inspire optimism among Russian politicians.

But the main problem everyone is facing is Trump doesn’t have any strategy and is entirely mercurial – hence all the fawning messages as no one wants to get off on the wrong foot.

In private conversations with The Bell, Russian bureaucrats and business leaders were far less enthusiastic. "Ideologically, Trump is closer to us, but in practice, it doesn’t matter at all," one Russian government official admitted. "

Another former Kremlin official candidly remarked, "Of course, the Kremlin wanted Trump more. He is free of all these prejudices about democracy, and if there is something to negotiate about, it will be easier to do so with him."

Relations between Moscow and Washington are currently at their lowest point since the end of the Cold War and “there are no grand illusions in Russia that a second Trump presidency would herald a significant improvement,” The Bell said. The Kremlin is getting ready to ride the wave, something it has proven it is pretty good at.

A former employee of the Russian presidential administration stated, "For Putin, the more chaos the American elections bring, the better. It will distract the West's attention from Russia: The United States has a gigantic overhang of internal problems." For Moscow, Trump's re-emergence may represent an opportunity, but not one without substantial dangers.

As the United States grapples with the implications of Donald Trump's renewed political relevance, The New York Times has framed it starkly: "Now Americans will have to come to terms with the fact that Trump's first presidency was not a random four-year period, but the opening of a 12-year era of Trump."

Trump's presence, the newspaper argues, is no longer an anomaly but a persistent force, akin to the legacies of Ronald Reagan or Franklin Roosevelt. This new reality, one that deeply represents the preferences of a substantial portion of the American electorate, marks a profound shift in US politics.

Trump means a Ukraine peace deal on the cards

Trump’s room temperature IQ and his impulsive nature make him hard to deal with or predict, but at the same time he loves a deal and that will make him easier to deal with than Kamala Harris.

While the Russian economy is doing fine it is clearly cooling as the military Keynesianism effects wear off. There is going to be a very sharp slowdown in 2025 so this is a good time for Russia to put a pin in its war. Putin can declare “victory” at any time.

But he doesn’t have to stop the war. Russia has a very strong hand and can hold out for very tough terms. Putin has said repeatedly he wants to restart the Istanbul peace deal, which means means Ukraine giving up land, reducing its military significantly, and becoming neutral again. Russia is winning on the battlefield so there is no need to stop. Also, Russia it has plenty of money: the deficit this year will be cRUB2-3 trillion, but there is over RUB4 trillion in National Welfare Fund (NWF) and another RUB19 trillion in bank sector liquidity, which Ministry of Finance (MinFin) is intending to tap via the issue of RUB4 trillion of domestic bond issues this year. Russia can keep the war going up for years to come.

The other factor pushing Putin towards a deal is apart from no-Nato, the other reason he started this war as to end the “unipolar” world order and make it “multipolar” – a goal he has largely achieved as evidenced by the rapid growth of BRICS+ , G20 and all the other non-aligned organisations. Following the Kazan BRICS summit, to continue this work he needs sanctions to recede and Trump could deliver on that. And if America becomes a Fortress than inter-BRICS bloc trade will be more important than ever.

Biden was aggressively pushing a US led defence of allies in Ukraine and Israel etc, but everything Trump says is disengage: disengage from Ukraine, disengage from WTO, disengage from WHO, disengage from Nato, disengage from Paris Agreement.

He is going to build a Fortress USA surrounded by high tariffs and will ignore the US “leadership” role. That means the US will not come to anyone’s aid including Ukraine and not even the EU. And that suits Putin fine as allows him to focus on building up the non-aligned emerging markets block. This was happening before but the war has catalysed the process as EM leaders want to mitigate the threat the US will turn its attention to them next – and Trump makes that threat even more scary.

Markets are already anticipating this. The Financial Times reported on November 6 that FX traders were speculating yesterday on if the RUB FX trade is back on as they are expecting some sanctions on money to come off.

Europe also afraid

Europe is also ruing the return of Trump. Like everyone else, EU leaders rushed to congratulate Trump on his victory, but the plaudits coming from Central Europe were genuine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is building his own illiberal axis inside the EU, must be particularly pleased.

Trump is not good news for Europe as just his tariff policy is also aimed at Europe, not just China. The EU is already in a major crisis after the report from former Italian Prime Minister and ex-European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi highlighted it is no long competitive.

To add to Europe’s woes, Germany's ruling "traffic light" coalition, which includes the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP, collapsed a few hours after the results of the US presidential election were announced.

Germany’s economy is the European engine and also Ukraine’s biggest benefactor, but it was already slipping into recession. Berlin was already in the midst of a budget crisis that led Chancellor Olaf Scholz to slash support for Ukraine. Now its government will be paralysed until new elections are held next year – only the third time ever it has held early elections. Despite the collapse of the coalition, Scholz will remain in power until next spring. However, the removal of ultra-Russia hawk, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, could end up being a blessing for the efforts to cut a Russo-Ukraine peace deal.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently survived his own electoral debacle, has also been greatly weakened. The hold out is European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is another devoted Russia hawk, but has managed to consolidate a lot of new power in her own hands. But all this will make the European Commission (EC) much more factitious, which is bad news for Zelenskiy but good for Putin.