Democracy in Moldova has "survived" despite Russian interference and hybrid warfare, stated Moldova's Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Cristina Gherasimov on October 21, commenting on the preliminary results of the constitutional referendum on the country’s accession to the European Union, as reported by NewsMaker.

"Survival" is an apt description of the events on October 20, when nearly half of the Moldovans participating in the double ballot (49.6%) voted against European integration, with many supporting presidential candidates with ambiguous or pro-Russian views.

Although the near-final results of the double ballot could be cautiously interpreted in favour of Moldova’s pro-EU stance, they also reveal a significant portion of the population that remains sceptical about the benefits of European integration. Even considering Russia’s hybrid efforts to influence the outcome, a substantial segment of voters either remain unconvinced or are influenced by pro-Russian narratives.

President Maia Sandu, who is seeking a second term, faces a difficult path in the second round of presidential elections. Her pro-EU stance secured her 42.5% of the vote in the first round, the highest share, but her campaign has so far lacked strong political alliances within Moldova. Should she secure re-election, her party, the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), may face an even more challenging task in securing a parliamentary majority in next year's elections, given the fragmented political landscape.

The narrow margin in the referendum opens the door to potential challenges, casting doubt on Sandu’s prospects for re-election. Two key factors put her position at risk: the unexpectedly strong support for other candidates and the likelihood that the tight results will energise opposition voters.

Furthermore, there is a notable gap between polling data and the actual outcome of the vote. This discrepancy suggests that many Moldovan voters may be reluctant to openly express pro-Russian views or criticism of the pro-EU government. It also highlights the authorities' failure to engage the Russian-speaking electorate, many of whom are influenced by Russian media or simply critical of the government's perceived lack of progress in combating corruption and promoting transparency.

In a statement on October 21, Sandu acknowledged the need for further efforts to combat corruption but refrained from admitting any major governmental failings, instead attributing the near-failure of the referendum to Russian interference and the actions of the fugitive oligarch, Ilan Shor.

Sandu will face former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who secured 26.0% of the vote in the first round. Stoianoglo's performance, which exceeded poll predictions nearly threefold, suggests the enduring loyalty of former president Igor Dodon’s base. With no clear reserve of votes to draw on in the second round, Sandu is expected to face a tough battle as Stoianoglo is likely to gain the backing of other candidates.