The pro-EU President of Moldova Maia Sandu won a second term on November 3, defeating moderate pro-Russian rival Alexandr Stoianoglo by a significant margin of nearly 10 percentage points in the heated second round of the presidential election. 

Sandu’s win is good news for the country’s European integration, but it is only the first step towards the stabilisation of the democratic process in Moldova. Next year, Moldova will elect a new parliament, and Sandu’s Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) will have the tough task of preserving its majority or — a more realistic scenario — building a broader coalition.

In Moldova, Stoianoglo received nearly 52% of the votes, but 82% of the Moldovans living abroad backed Sandu, according to the preliminary results announced by the Central Electoral Commission after the counting of votes from 98.7% of polling stations. In total, over 300,000 votes came from abroad out of the total 1.65mn votes cast.

Change of course

Sandu owes a lot to the pro-EU electorate, which supported her particularly in the second round, despite the disappointing performance of her executive over the past three years.

“Moldova, today you are victorious. Together, we’ve shown the strength of our unity, democracy, and commitment to a dignified future,” Sandu wrote on X, announcing her election victory. 

“Thank you, dear Moldovans, at home and abroad. Walk with pride—you are freedom, hope, and resilience. I am proud to serve you all.” 

Importantly, between the two rounds of the presidential elections, Sandu promised two things: a government reshuffle by the end of the year and a broader dialogue with other political forces with reformist and pro-EU orientation.

Her rhetoric changed visibly from an authoritarian and radical one, to something more humble, inclusive and open to dialogue with her critics. The close result in the pro-EU referendum on October 20 and the high scores of her rivals contributed to the change in attitude.

Interference allegations 

Pro-Russian groups controlled by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor attended to disrupt the voting process among the pro-EU diaspora, while organising the voting process in regions populated by pro-Russian electorate, according to official Moldovan reports.

“We’re seeing massive interference by Russia in our electoral process as Moldovans vote in the presidential runoff today—an effort with high potential to distort the outcome. Authorities are on high alert,” said Sandu’s national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru. 

He detailed incidents in a series of posts on X, including organised voter transportation, and incentives such as meal tickets given to members of the diaspora in Moscow. 

Meanwhile, Secrieru said there had been “coordinated cyberattacks” on election infrastructure and bomb hoaxes at several West European polling stations. 

Both sides can be said to have engaged in unorthodox practices, as Moldova organised only two voting stations in Russia — both in the same building. In response, Shor organised air transportation for Moldovan voters from Russia to Belarus, Turkey and possibly the United Arab Emirates.

Tough times ahead 

While Sandu secured victory on November 3, unless the authorities in Chisinau genuinely change their methods and increase the credibility of their anti-corruption and democratic policies, this will not be repeated next year and Sandu will either have to cohabitate with a hostile majority or will be faced with endless political crises.

Besides delivering on the promises made by Sandu during the toughest moments of her presidential term, the authorities in Chisinau would gain enormously from attempting to engage the Russian-speaking population that they have so far ignored if not publicly condemned. 

This gave Stoianoglo and Socialist leader Igor Dodon an opportunity in the 2024 presidential election, and they took advantage of it. The Russian-speaking, conservative electorate is vulnerable to pro-Russian propaganda even when no money is involved, and this needs to be addressed by Sandu and her party as she embarks on her second term.