The city of Kerman in eastern Iran witnessed two consecutive blasts near the grave of Qasem Soleimani, an Iranian military officer who was assassinated by the US in Iraq on the same day three years ago. More than 100 people were killed, and many others were injured in the blasts on January 3.

The first blast struck around 3pm as a crowded mourning ceremony that marked the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s assassination was in full swing, sending crowds of people at the scene running into the surrounding woods. Reports say there were several casualties in the stampede that followed the first explosion.

Minutes later as people were rushing to help the casualties, a second blast hit, taking a heavy toll.

Reports say the first explosion went off about 700 metres from Soleimani’s grave, while the second took place about 1km away. No groups or governments have claimed responsibility for the Kerman attacks, but speculation is quickly narrowing down to groups of likely actors, including Tehran’s long list of enemies.

Context

Following the Hamas assault on the Re'im SuperNova music festival on October 7 which left more than 1,200 teenagers and young festival goers dead and mutilated, Tel Aviv declared total war on Hamas with military strikes on Gaza continuing into 2024.

Meanwhile Iran’s proxies in the region, known as ‘Axis of Resistance’, who operate in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen in support of Palestine and against Israel, have been drawn into the spreading war by launching attacks that have been reciprocated in a tit-for-tat strike on both Israel and US positions in Syria.

Although Iran has denied involvement in the October 7 attack, the fact that it has long supported Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah with financial and military assistance has inevitably drawn the Islamic Republic into the tensions.

In one of the most recent examples of the growing escalations, Iranian state media reported on December 25 that a top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander was killed in an Israeli air strike in Syria, prompting Tehran to threaten that Israeli will “certainly pay” for its actions.  Many pundits in Iran have expressed concern about a potential direct Iran-US confrontation as a result of the ongoing escalations, accusing Israel of plotting such an outcome.

Revenge

As the government declared the following day, January 4, a national day of mourning, the official narrative of the Islamic Republic in reaction to the blasts has been one of blaming them on hostile forces who will face a vengeful retribution. 

“The new conspiracy that occurred today was a continuation of the conspiracies that the enemy had been pursuing for a long time, attempting to orchestrate explosions in various ceremonies,” said Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi.

"Those who committed these crimes should expect a strong and decisive response by Iran's security forces,” he added.

And the hostile forces Iran accuses of conspiracy against the Islamic Republic more often than not turn out to be the US-backed Israel – at least in the eyes of Tehran. 

Yet a commentator in Tehran, who chose to remain anonymous, said: “I don't think it is Israel, because it is usually not their style of operations. They are more into targeted assassinations. But at the same time, it will help Israel to get a disproportionate response from Iran on the attack. That could in turn draw the US in, which is something Israel may want.”

Others with a history of acting against the Islamic Republic include maligned and exiled opposition group Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/MKO), as well as separatist groups and Sunni Jihadi like Islamic State (IS) which is present on the Iran-Afghanistan border.

Indeed, it is not unlikely that a blame game intensifies between Tehran and Tel Aviv, but perhaps more importantly is the implications of the incident on the ongoing tensions in the region and fears of further escalations.

“The criminals will now face definite suppression and fair punishment,” said the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a statement following the explosions.

"The callous criminals could not endure the public love and enthusiasm for visiting the resting place of their great commander, the martyr Qasem Soleimani. They should know that the soldiers of the Path of Soleimani will not tolerate their wickedness and crimes either,” he added.

From 1998 until his assassination by the US in 2020, Qasem Soleimani was the commander of the Quds Force, an IRGC division primarily responsible for extraterritorial and clandestine military operations. In his later years, he was considered by some analysts to be the right-hand man of Khamenei, as well as the second-most powerful person in Iran behind him.

Soleimani strengthened the relationship between Quds Force and Hezbollah upon his appointment, and supported the latter by sending in operatives to retake southern Lebanon. In an interview aired in October 2019, he said he was in Lebanon during the 2006 Israel–Hezbollah War to manage the conflict.

It is difficult to foresee the nature of the revenge Iran is considering, yet it is safe to say what happened on January 3 in Kerman has the potential to significantly fuel the flames of war in the region. Whether Israel is behind the incident—like some speculate—or Iran just wants to show this, any Iranian reaction will definitely have far-reaching implications across the wider Near East.

Public reactions

Many Iranians were quick to extend their condolences to the innocent victims of the blasts while condemning the perpetrators irrespective of their political views on the government or the IRGC.

Others were more sceptical.

“How come innocent people died but not a single official? Wasn’t it a memorial for the commander [Soleimani]? Where were the officials?” reads a social media post.

The Israeli media initially reported the death of a senior IRGC commander in the blasts, but later local media in Iran dismissed the report saying none of the senior IRGC commanders were present near the explosion site.

“It’s very interesting; after the first explosion they denied it. Later they said a gas canister had exploded in an attempt to allay public worries. Until the second explosion hit and the state media was still going on about Gaza!” said another individual.

Some even went as far as questioning the official narrative about the possible hands behind the blasts.

“They know what to do. They’d like to see the nation in mourning and crying. They are diverting attention from pollution, embezzlement and water crisis,” read another post, referring to the chronic air pollution in major Iranian cities and the recent $3bn-odd corruption in the domestic tea industry.

Another person wrote: “You should have known that they were going to take you there to slaughter you for the sake of the regime’s sustenance,” in reference to the crowd who had gathered at the ceremony. 

The more cynical in Tehran directly accused the IRGC of being behind the twin blast to create a rally around the flag effect.

“That they are trying to blame someone else without proof or evidence shows they themselves are to blame,” wrote a social media user.

“The streets in Iran are always coloured in blood. Sometimes the excuse is protests, sometimes a human error and sometimes a terror attack,” wrote another one. 

A Ukraine International Airlines passenger plane flying from Tehran to Kyiv was shot down by the IRGC shortly after take-off on January 8, 2020, killing all nine members of the crew and 167 passengers aboard.

Iran blamed “human error” for the incident but several foreign new agencies questioned the shooting over the south of Tehran as suspect despite later admission by the IRGC that they had mistakenly shot down the plane