French carmaker Renault must repay at least RUB112.5bn ($1.3bn) of the money invested by its Russian partner AvtoVAZ in the joint venture during its absence, AvtoVAZ president Maxim Sokolov said on February 25, TASS reports.

Renault left Russia in 2022 after the invasion of Ukraine and was paid a nominal RUB2 by the government for its stake in the Russian automotive giant that makes the iconic Lada cars. The deal reportedly included an option to buy back its stake for the same sum if sanctions were lifted. Renault has a long and storied history of working in Russia, but all of the Western automotive companies have been keen on the Russian market, potentially the largest in Europe.

However, AvtoVaz now says it wants all the money it has invested into the car plant over the last three years back if the French company wishes to return to Russia. Annual investments in AvtoVAZ have risen significantly, with 2025 projections reaching a minimum of RUB45bn ($510mn), according to Sokolov.

Since ceasefire talks between the US and Russia kicked off in Riyadh on February 18, relations between the two have warmed rapidly, much to Europe’s alarm.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is leading the US team, said there is an opportunity to “unlock a historic US-Russia economic alliance” if a ceasefire deal for Ukraine can be agreed. At the same time, the White House chose to exclude Europe and Ukraine from the first round of talks.

Only days after the Riyadh meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Western companies could be welcomed back to Russia, but also made it clear that any return would be on the Kremlin’s terms. Just what those terms mean has become a little clearer now.

Renault held a majority stake in AvtoVaz and was trying to put the plant, founded in Soviet times, back on its feet. AvtoVaz allocated approximately RUB20-22bn ($226-249mn) annually for upgrading the Russian automaker's facilities. In contrast, post-Renault investments have risen, exceeding RUB27.5bn ($311mn) in 2023 and approaching RUB40bn ($453mn) in 2024.

Part of the cost increase is due to the fact that the half a dozen European Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) operating in Russia never set up local production of the parts they need to assemble cars, preferring to import them from factories in Western Europe.

Russian producers have been scrambling to find new sources of electric window winders and on-board computers. When the sanctions began, these imports stopped overnight, bringing the automotive sector to a screeching halt. The automotive sector was probably the hardest hit of all Russia’s industrial and manufacturing sectors. However, since then, car production has made an almost complete recovery, as Chinese and Iranian carmakers have stepped into the empty shoes.

Sokolov said that the increased investments surpass the average annual amounts during Renault's tenure. "They exceed the average annual investment volumes that were made when Renault was the shareholder in the early noughties... So, it is clear that these investments will have to be reimbursed somehow upon return."

The Renault Russia plant's shares were transferred to the city of Moscow, while Renault's stake in AvtoVAZ was assigned to the NAMI institute, operating under the Industry and Trade Ministry.

The return of foreign companies to Russia will be individual – like the exit, it will require a decision by the government commission on foreign investment, Vedomosti writes, citing a representative of the Ministry of Finance. The presidential decrees related to exit from Russia – “On a special procedure for implementing certain types of transactions” and “On additional temporary economic measures” – also apply to “entry” into Russia.

But so far not one company that left the Russian market has spoken about a return. Renault boss Luca de Meo was the only boss to comment publicly on the idea, and then only vaguely, saying there was a chance of the company returning, but it wasn’t great.

The head of Italy’s Unicredit and Austria’s Raiffeisen are the two major banks that have so far remained in Russia, said that a settlement would help Unicredit depart quicker and sell for a higher price.