Romania’s seasonally adjusted production index decreased in October by 0.9% m/m (-1.7% m/m for the core manufacturing industries) compared to September, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative performances, according to the latest data released by the statistics office INS.

The annual change in the index is less relevant, given the base effects, but the seasonally adjusted index reveals a visible industrial slowdown since March-April this year.

The automobile industry and oil refining (due to the accident at Petromidia refinery) were mainly responsible for the decline.

The former delivered in October an output that was 33% inferior to that delivered in October 2019 (before the crisis), while the two-year contraction in the case of the latter was 20%.

Overall, for the whole industry (mining and utilities included) the decline compared to October 2019 was 9.6% (-4.9% per annum) and for the manufacturing sector, it was 13% (-6.7% per annum).

In October, the industrial activity was dragged down by the automobile industry (-3.0% m/m) that has particularly underperformed recently due to the semiconductors crisis, but also by other industries such as pharma production (-13.2% m/m).

In contrast, the oil refining industry recovered for the second month in a row after Rompetrol’s Petromidia refinery resumed operations at the end of September. 

November brought some good news for Romania’s automobile industry, but there’s no sustainable recovery and furthermore the overall mood remains negative due to the industrial slowdown across the whole of Europe.

The number of cars produced in Romania has more than doubled in November compared to October, according to the industry association ACAROM. Both Romanian producers, Dacia and Ford, delivered 46,773 units in November compared to 18,277 units in October.

Ford even managed to surpass its output of November 2020, as it recovered fast from the subdued activity in October.

In the first 11 months of the year, Romania produced 379,952 cars, 6.1% less compared to the same period in 2020. The decline is smaller for Dacia, which produced 233,984 cars, 2.6% fewer than last year. At Ford, the 11-month production shrank by 11.2% due to repeated shutdowns, to 145,968 units.