Russian President Vladimir Putin has abandoned any hopes for a quick resolution in Ukraine through peace negotiations, and is now laser-focused on the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state.

That’s according to a new report by independent Russian media outlet Explanatory Note, citing anonymous sources close to the Kremlin. Until recently, the sources believed that a potential end to the war through negotiations had been possible, especially with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signalling a willingness to hold a referendum on the terms for ending hostilities.

However, following Ukraine's recent military incursion into the Kursk Region, launched while backchannel discussions about a peace conference were ongoing, the dynamics have altered significantly, leading to a new over-arching goal for Putin: the complete destruction of the Ukrainian state.

According to Explanatory Note, the sources grew optimistic about the possibility of a negotiated settlement in late summer, driven by various factors, including significant prisoner exchanges and discussions between military officials from both sides. Notably, the sources anticipated the signing of agreements to limit strikes against energy infrastructure, which were viewed by the Kremlin as a promising step toward peace. These arrangements had been set to be finalised in Qatar in late August, potentially paving the way for broader de-escalation. However, this deal was scuttled following Ukraine’s decision to launch an offensive into Russia’s Kursk Region. This incursion infuriated Putin, who interpreted Kyiv's actions as a betrayal of the talks, according to Explanatory Note.

The outlet noted that much of the Russian elite, once open to negotiations, has increasingly hardened its stance. Those advocating dialogue have now been marginalised. A sanctioned official speaking to Explanatory Note also articulated this sentiment, stating that any hint of reconciliation would be swiftly suppressed in the current political climate.

Looking ahead, the Kremlin appears committed to a prolonged conflict, calculating that Ukraine's resources are dwindling faster than Russia's. The prospect of nuclear escalation remains a concern, although the outlet’s sources indicate that Putin would only consider this in the event of an outright war with the West. As the situation evolves, the Russian leadership's focus is on sustaining the conflict, with the end goal now clearly defined: the total collapse of Ukraine as a sovereign state.